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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 01/15/2008

Slim Snow Chances Stay Slim

By Jason Samenow

Snow on an ultra low fat diet

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Thursday
Probability: 30%
Potential Impact:

Commentary: I'll begin with some good news for snow lovers: I actually think there's about a 60% chance we see some snow Thursday. The bad news is I don't think it will amount to anything (hence the 30% probability of accumulating snow given above) before turning to rain.

Here's the deal: A storm will come up the coast Thursday. Enough cold air will be in place when the precipitation first arrives for a possible period of wet snow late morning into the afternoon. But since any snow is likely to fall during the day and the ground is relatively warm, I think getting "stickage" is going to be tough, except in the colder north and west suburbs (spots like Gaithersburg, Sterling, etc). Those spots may receive an inch or two.

By late afternoon, most of the metro area will likely switch over to rain, with the outlying cold spots changing to liquid by mid evening. Periods of rain will fall Thursday night before cold air begins pouring into the region as soon as the storm pulls away Friday. (If I had a "Cold Lover's Crystal Ball", the weekend would be depicted by three fur coats.)

Caution: the snow crystal ball is still a bit hazy, so don't be surprised if a detail or two about this forecast changes.

By Jason Samenow  | January 15, 2008; 10:30 AM ET
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Cold and Mostly Dry Next Two Days
Next: Alert: Snow Flurries and Squalls Moving Through


Well...30% is better than nothing. 00z GFS wasn't terribly gung-ho on anything, so I'm not terribly surprised.

Posted by: hobbes | January 15, 2008 10:32 AM | Report abuse

At least there's SOME snow in the picture.

Maybe we can "tweak" that setup for the 24th a bit. Let's place the storm off Hatteras. Off Delmarva and it's north of us before the REAL SNOW gets started.

Posted by: El Bombo | January 15, 2008 11:07 AM | Report abuse

It's snowing in Potomac right now! Big, white flakes sticking to everything. It's so pretty.

Posted by: marlee | January 15, 2008 11:23 AM | Report abuse

I'm all for the guys work it out for us and we'll just keep dancing hard.

Posted by: missy | January 15, 2008 11:23 AM | Report abuse

The 12z runs are in and give support to the idea of a winter weather event from the Blue Ridge westward through the Shenandoah Valley on Thursday with the area east of the mts. including D.C. perhaps beginning as frozen precip. but going to mostly a cold rain with a mix at times for areas north and west of D.C.

For the Blue Ridge and points west, the first several hrs. should be mostly snow with generally 1-3 inches acc. before mixing with and maybe changing to sleet, freezing rain and rain.

Some models are hinting at another threat on Sat. The GFS thinks the threat on Sat. will remain mostly to our southeast.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 15, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse

How would it change to rain during the night when temps will be droping (especially because of the very chilly weekend)?

Posted by: Anonymous | January 15, 2008 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Anon-- Precip will likely change to rain during the afternoon or early evening Thurs because there is going to a push of warm air aloft as the storm moves north. The cold air won't start arriving until during the day Friday.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 15, 2008 1:16 PM | Report abuse


What are your thoughts for the storm down my way, keeping in mind the 2100ft. elevation? I am thinking snow to mix, maybe back to snow at the end, at night? I don't really expect solid ZR or sleet.. more a mix of snow/sleet/ZR. I'm hoping for more snow of course!

Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | January 15, 2008 2:42 PM | Report abuse

I hope no harm came to the original SLCB. I don't care for the new one, (too fancy) and miss the old one, especially the cute arms. She looked homemade, rather than the new store bought one.

Of course, we don't see too much of either during these strong la Nina and El Nino winter patterns the past few years.

Best to all.

Posted by: Artjohn | January 15, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

what is the maximum amount of snow possible?

Posted by: sam | January 15, 2008 3:26 PM | Report abuse

oops, that was me posting as "new site format"

Mozilla Firefox is not liking the new WP format one bit .... at least I guess that's the problem.

Posted by: chickenlady | January 15, 2008 4:45 PM | Report abuse

*sigh* I can't see the crystal ball at all, in Firefox.....

Posted by: chickenlady | January 15, 2008 4:50 PM | Report abuse

What do you think of the Thurday/ Thursady night storm for western Loudoun?

Posted by: Model Monkey | January 15, 2008 5:44 PM | Report abuse

This new format sucks (BIG time) compared to the old Capital Weather format, but at least you guys are cashing in on it.

Posted by: Let's Be Brutally Honest | January 15, 2008 6:06 PM | Report abuse

chickenlady: if you have ads blocked in firefox, that will cause the site to not display properly. the site will display well in ie.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 15, 2008 6:08 PM | Report abuse

In terms of specific snowfall predictions, not sure yet. per this post, not expecting much accumulation in the immmediate metro area. maybe an inch or two well n&w of town. but i need to look at the latest data and won't be able to until later tonight.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 15, 2008 6:11 PM | Report abuse

Could we get some fricken snow already!?

Posted by: Ken | January 15, 2008 7:26 PM | Report abuse

OK, thanks, Jason.

Posted by: Chickenlady | January 16, 2008 9:03 AM | Report abuse

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