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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 02/28/2008

CommuteCast: Chilly Conditions Continue

By Ian Livingston

Slow warming trend begins Friday

As we near the close of February, temperatures today have risen into the mid 30s across the area -- more typical of a cold day in late January. Gusty winds that have plagued the region since Tuesday night are now beginning to subside, leaving the Arctic air mass in place feeling a bit less chilly. The commute home will be dry and weather-worry free.

Tonight: This evening will start out mostly clear, and clouds will increase late in the night leaving much of the area mostly cloudy by sunrise. Temperatures are once again expected to be very cold across the region, with lows hitting the upper teens in most places and the low 20s in the District.

Tomorrow: Friday will be cloudy and a touch warmer than recent days, though it will still be below average temperature-wise. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 40s across the area. Most of the day will be dry, but rain chances will increase by afternoon and last through the evening as a cold front moves through. There is a slight chance some snow flakes will mix in Friday night before the precipitation ends, especially to the north and west of D.C.

See Josh's forecast through the beginning of next week.

By Ian Livingston  | February 28, 2008; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Sterling has taken a cold bias with next weeks system, indicating a possible wintry event.

The 12z ECMWF has shifted west toward the GFS, but, if the center of the closed off energy comes close enough to our area, the dynamical cooling could produce an elevation event for the higher elevations west of D.C.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 28, 2008 4:05 PM | Report abuse

The CPC with their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook's this afternoon, are suggesting a cold and wet, first half of March!!!

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 28, 2008 5:16 PM | Report abuse

18z GFS didn't change much. I hope the 00z is more accurate. I have heard folks say that "less" emphasis is placed on the 18z and NWS forecasts off the 12, 00z.

18z has a western runner still. I have not read the EURO models yet.

Posted by: VA | February 28, 2008 5:33 PM | Report abuse

@Augusta Jim
Jim, even I, a certified snow lover, am starting to lose faith. If I'm not going to be getting snow, then let's get this whole "Spring" business on with it. I can only handle so many more 40 degree rain storms only to be followed by wind chills in the teens.

Posted by: Jamie Jones, CapitalWeather Gang | February 28, 2008 5:35 PM | Report abuse

.

Posted by: Period | February 28, 2008 5:35 PM | Report abuse

Jamie,

I second that.
All in favor...

The latest from Sterling:
GFS AND EUROPEAN INDICATE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
GULF STATES MONDAY. HOWEVER...GFS DEEPENS THE LOW TOO RAPIDLY AND
PULLS IN FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE COLD AIR...A TYPICAL BIAS. THIS
LED ME TO FOLLOW THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST DEPICTED BY THE
EUROPEAN. 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS...BUT PATTERN INDICATED HERE
POINTS TO A POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT NEXT WEEK...LIKELY TO BE AN
INLAND EVENT GIVEN WARM PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT. AS WITH MANY SYSTEMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK WILL GREATLY
CHANGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.

Posted by: PJ Mt Vernon | February 28, 2008 5:41 PM | Report abuse

I need help. Whenever I pull up the EURO models on various different websites, its coverage is over Europe, I am having a difficult time viewing the EURO coverage over United States. Is there a website that shows Euro Model Runs so I can compare. Thanks

Posted by: Stormy | February 28, 2008 5:47 PM | Report abuse

Stormy, here is a link which offers some freebies of the EURO with focus on North America. On the top left there is a nav bar which allows you to switch over to a 500mb view of the maps. There are some other sites where you can create your own maps, but they are a little more in-depth and difficult to figure out -- perhaps we can make a post on how to do it someday.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | February 28, 2008 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Chance of a big snow in next 7 days, 2%, chance of some snow flakes 30%. Looking at models will only lead 2 hopecasting. Not saying a big snow won't happen, but it gets less likely everyday. Will post a winter summary in the next day or 2.

Posted by: VaTechBob. | February 28, 2008 6:10 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Ian.

I wish there was a way to magnify the screen size. Im trying to see if the Low on ECMWF is agreeing with the latest GFS run on 18z for next week, or is the ECMWF suggest a more eastern track. I cannot tell.

Posted by: stormy | February 28, 2008 6:13 PM | Report abuse

What does anyone think about the possibility of a storm on the 7th 8th?

Posted by: Anonymous | February 28, 2008 6:13 PM | Report abuse

Gotta b a little better then 2% Bob. You might as well say it wont happen instead of might. Might warrents at least a 10% chance. Remember, the model runs are still more then 4 days out. Small shifts can change the equation. I agree with you that the "trend" this winter would suggest plain old rain from this storm. Probable Storm track will pretty much be verified on Saturday.

I will have to agree with

Posted by: StormChaser | February 28, 2008 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Forget March 5th. Look at March 12!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_pcp300336_l.shtml

(I dreamcast. Forgive me.)

Posted by: mcleaNed | February 28, 2008 6:34 PM | Report abuse

Stormy, there is a link at the bottom left of the page where you can download the map as a PDF and magnify it through a reader like Acrobat. Keep in mind those maps do not show QPF, it's mostly useful for surface low pressure placement.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | February 28, 2008 6:36 PM | Report abuse

To create Weather maps with animate Icons in TouchScreen
http://www.iconmaps.es

Posted by: isdito | February 28, 2008 6:41 PM | Report abuse

As usual, the NWS forecast from Sterling is a WONDER with no model support, which they refer to!

Augusta Co.- Monday night, Rain and snow likely, low in mid 30's, Tue., Rain and snow likely highs in the low 40's.

Forecast discussion: "This led me to follow a track closer to the east coast as depicted by the European" When this statement was made, the 12Z Euro. had been available for several hrs., this statement seems to be refering to the 00Z Euro. from last night. Why? when reference was made to other 12z models? The 12Z Euro places the center over extreme w. Ky. at 1200z Tue. with +8C 850 temps. over us.

The 12z GFS places the 850 0c line over Ft. Wayne with surface temps. at 50F over us Tue. at 12z.

These NWS folks at Sterling never cease to amaze me!!

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 28, 2008 8:57 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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