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Posted at 3:30 PM ET, 02/26/2008

CommuteCast: Rain Showers Moving Through

By Ian Livingston

Wednesday to bring below-average chill

Rain showers that have dotted the region throughout the day will continue and be more widespread through the remainder of the afternoon. Total rainfall has generally been light so far, with most stations reporting between .05" and .10" through 3 p.m. The drive home will feature many wet roads across the area, so some extra caution is advised.

Tonight: Most of the shower activity will exit to the northeast by mid evening, swept away by a cold front that will usher in a new shot of colder air. Gusty winds -- as high as 35 mph at times -- are likely throughout the night, and wind chills will be a factor by morning. Lows are expected to drop to around 30 degrees in the northwest suburbs and into the low or mid 30s for the District and to the southeast.

Tomorrow: Clouds and gusty winds will dominate the day on Wednesday. A passing snow shower is possible, though any snowflakes will not be widespread or accumulating in the local area. Highs should reach the low 40s across the entire region.

See Matt's forecast for the rest of the week and through the weekend.

By Ian Livingston  | February 26, 2008; 3:30 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Some Drops in the Bucket

Comments

Check out this link for a snow map for around 3/5.

http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_grads.asp?mod=dgex&mv0=weasdsfc&cap=Accumulated Snow&hr=192&gs=dgex_snow_accu&bogus=1&uid=1&map=conus&gv0=A

Posted by: B | February 26, 2008 3:45 PM | Report abuse

That link takes me to AccuWeather Professional and makes you login.

I've seen the model with the 32°F line in GA/SC and it looks just too perfect. There has to be a flaw somewhere or just a hiccup. I'll ask my physics teacher about it, he's the "weather guru" at our school, LOL.

Thanks for the forecast Ian. I love clouds, wind and cold, so WOOHOO for tomorrow. I just don't want to be out in it too long...now that I've said that watch us have a fire drill and we'll have to stand out there for 15 minutes. :D

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | February 26, 2008 4:24 PM | Report abuse

B: What do the accumlations say on Accuweather. Need to be a professional member to view.

Also, Cap Team. Thanks for your answer to my question earlier. Could someone also explain why the 3/4 low system is so different from the typical lows we have had this winter. Is it unusually strong?? the reason why its pulling south so much cold air into it.

Also, the 12z GFS shows it bombing out giving NYC close two 2 feet "at this point". We are at 1 foot arena plus some inches.

I really hope the models continue to fine tune this storm with each run instead of the reverse which has been the case all winter.

We do have one thing in our favor, the NAO has trended negative. This increases our chances for snow, even in late season. 3/4 is a system we will all have to keep an eye on. At the moment, the trend has been in our favor for the past several days. It could bust on the next run, so I'm not trying to hype this up quite yet. Confidence will increase if models continue to hold 3/4 storm into the weekend.

Posted by: StormChaser | February 26, 2008 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: mcleaNed | February 26, 2008 4:45 PM | Report abuse

Also, Note 3/8 looks like a weaker round 2 at this point.

I cant help but to think back to 1996 storm when we had back to back snowstorms within a week.

Posted by: StormChaser | February 26, 2008 4:59 PM | Report abuse

1996 was in January though, not March. I just can't believe we are going to get a foot of snow in early March. Lord I hope not!

Posted by: Southside FFX | February 26, 2008 5:37 PM | Report abuse

Southside FTX.

Models show us getting 1 inch of precip which is equivallent to 1 foot if it is all snow. Way too early to tell now...

I was just comparing next weeks possible storms to a similar setup in Jan 1996 events. It will be a LONG shot should models hold those two storms through weekend. Will see......:)

Posted by: StormChaser | February 26, 2008 5:47 PM | Report abuse

Anyone know what the 18z shows for next week. Are models holding a storm for 3/4 My computer has firewalled half the sites online. Anyone?? Thanks

Posted by: Doug | February 26, 2008 5:50 PM | Report abuse

That is exactly what I was thinking...'96 storms.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | February 26, 2008 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Folks, don't set yourselves up for disappointment. Remember what the models have been doing all winter.

Posted by: Kalorama Park | February 26, 2008 6:06 PM | Report abuse

You guys hanging on these models more than a week in advance are like crack addicts...

Posted by: anon | February 26, 2008 6:13 PM | Report abuse

Any solution on the GFS that far out should be taken with a big heap of salt. There is some agreement among GFS ensembles for a storm in that time fram though, which might make it worth watching.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | February 26, 2008 6:15 PM | Report abuse

Those of you who are obsessed with model maunderings at 8, 10, 12, or more days out: It's fine if you get some amusement out of that, but here's a reality check. A plot of model skill shows a steady rate of improvement over the years, but it's by no means miraculous. In case you can't read the scale, the x-axis starts in 1980 and goes to 2004. The heavy line shows the number of days until the forecast reaches a correlation value of 60%, which means it's not worth much more than a random guess. That number went from near 6 days at the beginning of the range to almost 8 at the end. The bottom line is that telling us the models show anything of interest for a particular day beyond a week is equivalent to telling us your pet monkey threw a dart at a board and scored a bullseye.

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | February 26, 2008 6:31 PM | Report abuse

I agree with what your are saying. I would never just throw out hype on a single run on GFS or even 2 day runs.Thats worthless. What catches my interest is the steady trend of runs (Knock on Wood) that the GFS has been forecasting. I remember in 1996, trends were caught early.

Posted by: Steve | February 26, 2008 6:53 PM | Report abuse

oops, had a moment, I meant to reference you in last post not post your name...

sorry..)

Posted by: Stormchaser | February 26, 2008 6:54 PM | Report abuse

Anon,

What else is there to look forward to this winter. We could post about the warm weather or rain but most folks on here are snow "addicts" Also, what I wrote Steve and Ian is why I am discussing it now.

We have a steady trend of runs forecasting a "possilbe" good looking storm setup 3/4. I realize it could flip flop, it just hasnt yet. In fact, this is the longest trend yet to hold a sizeable snow storm this winter.

Posted by: StormChaser | February 26, 2008 7:02 PM | Report abuse

Nobody answered my question..2nd Request, Could someone please fill me in on latest GFS run for 3/4. Thanks

Posted by: Doug Again | February 26, 2008 7:09 PM | Report abuse

Doug (again): I think they just did, go back and read the comments. The models are hinting that are REALLY potent low pressure with a lot of moisture will go over us and the 32 degree line is in GA and SC. I'm not getting my hopes *too* high right now, but it is giving me something to look forward to through this boring week.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | February 26, 2008 7:25 PM | Report abuse

Folks: Lets be realistic, The trend is not ou friend. Today is another example of a failed potential.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 26, 2008 8:50 PM | Report abuse

I'll start paying closer attention on Sunday night. Until then....trying to figure out if I am ever going to get my car washed between watery events.....

Posted by: Kim in Manassas | February 26, 2008 10:56 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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