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Posted at 2:45 PM ET, 02/ 6/2008

CommuteCast: Showers Likely, Maybe T-Storms

By Ian Livingston

Cool down begins Thursday

Even without much sunshine, records fell at all area airports today on a warm flow from the south ahead of a cold front which will affect the area this afternoon and evening. An area of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the region from the west. Expect short periods of possibly heavy rain, maybe some thunder, and the potential for severe wind damage as showers and storms pass through during the late afternoon and evening.

Though isolated severe weather is possible, it is more likely to the west of our area as conditions across the region are not conducive to widespread damaging winds, hail or tornadoes. Temperatures will cool from the upper 60s when the rain begins and the front passes. The ride home this evening could be tougher than normal, so extra caution is advised.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will move east of the region late this evening and skies will begin to clear by midnight. Winds will be gusty behind the front as temperatures drop into the upper 40s in DC and points to the south while hitting the low or mid 40s north and west.

Tomorrow: Thursday will be mostly sunny and cooler than the last two days. Temperatures will still rise above seasonal averages though, topping out near or just over 50 degrees areawide. Winds will continue to gust up to 30 miles per hour at times during the morning and slowly die off through the day.

See Dan's forecast for the rest of this week and into early next week.

By Ian Livingston  | February 6, 2008; 2:45 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

A quick note to some of our loyal readers from the old site who have been missing the at-a-glance forecast -- we'll be adding this *very* soon. A different look and format, but all the same info. We'll also be adding the ability to post photos to Flickr, a feature some have complained about missing.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | February 6, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Strange but it seems that radar shows most of the rain is EAST and south of us. It has rained very little in and around Ballston thus far. There seems to be a bit of activity up near Elkins which bears some watching, however.

Posted by: El Bombo | February 6, 2008 3:30 PM | Report abuse

El Bombo, the cold front is actually still well west of the area, so more should form to our north and west through the evening.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | February 6, 2008 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Ian:
I forget the conversion to Eastern time from Zulu time. What does the 19:27 time stamp on that link to the frontal boundary out west in your last post correspond to?
Thanks

Posted by: jmbethesda | February 6, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

19:27z is 2:27 pm in EST. The plots are as recorded at 18z, so 1 pm today. The cold front has since moved east of the location it's shown on that map, the next update will come in an hour or so.

There is a new special weather statement out from the NWS. Overall, it looks like timing may be a little slower than it appeared earlier, so showers/storms may hold off in DC till 9pm or so.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | February 6, 2008 4:09 PM | Report abuse

A nice line has developed over nw W.Va. extending down through Charleston to e Ky.
More popping over sw Va. This line is associated with the cold front and bears watching.

4:30: 62 degrees, cloudy, south winds 10-20 mph

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 6, 2008 4:33 PM | Report abuse

This is some really whacked out weather. It seems like we're already well into March. I know temps will reach back into the normal range next week, but I would love to see some more SNOW before Spring! Meanwhile they've had Snowstorms in Los Angeles, Atlanta, and even Orlando. Not to mention the random Snow events in China (Palm Trees covered in Snow), and Israel (Jerusalem had more snow than the D.C. Area, and that is rare). I don't mind Spring, but I'd really like a heavy hitting winter.

Posted by: Mr. Freeze | February 6, 2008 4:33 PM | Report abuse

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Washington County, MD.

Posted by: Chase, Luray | February 6, 2008 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Happy Lent.

Posted by: Period | February 6, 2008 4:55 PM | Report abuse

Some of the cells in sw Va. are moving ne up to 98mph!. The one that moved through Wash Co. earlier was moving ne at 75 mph.

The sw Va. activity may affect my area within 90 minutes and possibly the DC area within 3 hrs., if it doesn't dissipate.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 6, 2008 5:06 PM | Report abuse

The weather we are experiencing in the DC region is unusual but not unheard of this time of year. Augusta Jim (as usual) has made a very good observation... some of the storms approaching the region are moving very fast. The upper level winds are roaring at over 110 mph - even as fast as 150 mph. This is where a lot of the energy fueling the weather in our region is coming from. Combined with warm moist air flowing in from the south and colder dry air from the west, the scenario for a very springlike event is set. Even though the temperatures topped over 70, without extended periods of sunshine and the now delayed, past sunset, passing of the cold front, it looks like the chances of severe weather have diminished somewhat, but not entirely out of the question.
Now we focus on the brief cold snap later this weekend and the potential for a little winter weather around the middle of next week.

Posted by: PJ | February 6, 2008 5:40 PM | Report abuse

I thought that over the past couple weeks, the long term outlook for March was that it would likely be colder with chances for wintry weather more so than February. Judging by some recent posts, has this outlook been changed to say that we're done with winter on President's day?

Posted by: missy | February 6, 2008 6:09 PM | Report abuse

You know what is jinxing our chances of snow???

The "snowcam." Will we ever measure 9 inches of the white stuff again?

Posted by: Period | February 6, 2008 7:11 PM | Report abuse

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