Bring it!

So, if I don't have to go out tomorrow, I probably shouldn't?

I think it would be neat if you could integrate the weather forecast with the traffic forecast. You could start to predict which roads and bridges might ice up, and how that would impact commuters in certain areas. Where are we most likely to see ice, where are we most likely to see wrecks.

Don't think there is a computer model for that yet.

Snowing here in Loudoun (maybe sleeting too?), radar looks actually more promising. This batch of precip should last us a while, as it is filling in a little to our west. Yay. Thanks for the update CWG, and to all, a safe night!

Looks like a decent band of snow popping up over the city right now... Got a little light snow here. Keep hoping!

2 and 1/2 apples is just about good enough for me.

Finally winter has come!

light snow in NWDC 24.6 degrees 19 dew point 76 humidity, radar seems to be filling in a little for us. hoping for the best.

I guess I'm a little confused regarding the severity of the ice? So yeah maybe roads will be clear, but what about those of us who have to risk life and limb on more than a mile of sidewalk in our daily commute? And also I wonder about downed trees and power outages. It appears that this forecast is downplaying the severity or the effects of the ice? I worry about CAD and another scenario like last week.

Personally, as a pedestrian commuter, I think staying in is best bet. Or maybe I just have wild imaginings of being knocked out by a frozen branch while I slipping on the untreated sidewalks.

Ryan really seems to be downgrading this thing. I'm not sure what his track record has been this season tho.

Bob Ryan really downgrading this thing. Says he wouldn't be surprised to see WSW downgraded to just an advisory by early morning. Only "spotty" icy precip for morning rush.

Bob Ryan really downplayed the storm for the immediate metro area. Says very little snow (possibly none) and sporadic ice tomorrow. He thinks the salt trucks will be able to keep up with everything.

Yup, I bought the work home, I killed the storm.

29.3 and light snow in Mt Pleasant

Well, looks like I'll be going to work after all. Better get some sleep.

What are the risks in reading into said 2.5 apples an off-day for the Feds tomorrow? (And, I recommend a 1-4 scale for the Gov't as well, in case you're looking for a new feature.)

J: For Feds, I'm pretty sure you're going to work -- perhaps you'll have the unscheduled leave policy in effect

Bob Ryan called for 1-2" for me yesterday...
I got a whopping 0.1 maybe.

He doesn't really get my vote for the forecast.

Really I think if schools close tomorrow its going to be on the risk of what could happen during, and since its a risk of ice I would probably say that means its more likely they'll close. Radar seems to be trying to fill in a little further south, we'll see how that works out. I really can not wait for spring. Than we can all enjoy the warmer weather and the hopes of a great winter next year.

I'm going to be driving west, dragging a big trailer. I know this storm is heading west to east, but I'm having trouble figuring out how long I'll be in the storm. Does it make more sense to (1) leave early and push through it, (2) leave later (after the plows have had a go) and hope for sun, or (3) shrug and leave on Saturday? Also, which route looks clearer - I-70 or I-64?

The later I leave, the more fun things I'll miss out on...but if my trailer and I are spun into a ditch, that's going to be a whole world of un-fun.

Thanks!
-dcsnowbaby

moderate snow in chevy chase, has whitened the ground, including the street

Looks like most of this storm will pass N & S of the area, which is probably good, since this was going to b mostly an ice storm. Sorry, but a big snow storm was just not in the cards this yr, storms took the wrong tracks & temps were generally to warm. Of course, the further N & W the better chance of frozen prec.

Bob Ryan on Channel 4 said this is a "non event" and that he thought everything would switch over to a "Winter Weather Advirory" by morning.

Is this not the beautiful thing about weather? In a world where we seek to find definite answers to so many things, in a world where we seek control of so many things, it's nice to know that weather is still as unrestrained and unpredictable as it was thousands of years ago. We moan and groan about forecast uncertainty and "busts," but I find it nice to have something that continues to humble even our best efforts at prediction.

How much longer is the current snow supposed to last?

Just started snowing at fairfax hospital-- very, very light. I probably wouldn't even notice if I wasn't staring out the window like a four year old!

mcleaNed: I couldn't have said it better. The way you put it was perfect.

One thing about going to a MoCo school, the county is so large that even the northern part effects are schedule. :D

Haha, I think if nothing as severe happens as said before, we'll at least have a two hour delay.

our* >_>

Oh yeah, I'm in TKPK and I see nothing happening... if there ism it is definitely not sticking.

Speaking of unpredictable: snow has amplified to a decent clip here in McLean. I wouldn't call it blizzard conditions, but the accumulation is certainly visible on the deck.

I could not disagree more with mcleaNed and arnoldkh. Clearly, the better we are able to forecast the weather, the better off we are, in terms of warning people about approaching bad or dangerous conditions and being better able to deploy necessary resources (in winter storms, for example, road crews). Hopefully, moving forward, we can continue to erode the degree of uncertainty in forecasting. I know we have made great progress in that direction in my lifetime.

Light snow in College Park

I don't think that we're trying to say that improving forecasting methods is a bad thing. I think its more having those forecast proven wrong by always changing weather patterns/forces that is just a very humbling experience for many(or at least should be in my opinion.) There really are few things that we don't have control of in this world anymore(as we perceive the world)and when something comes along that we have pretty much no control over we usually tend to freak out. I think the weather is a very good example of this.

My argument obviously doesn't stand for those in the midst of a tornado or hurricane. I'm simply saying that, for a non-dangerous event, in can be refreshing to see billions of dollars worth of supercomputers and forecasting technology humbled by clouds and wind.

If we knew exactly what the weather would bring, I doubt CapWx could draw in even five comments for a storm like this. Uncertainty is what makes the weather fun--provided the actual weather is of the "fun" variety.

Ryan, I've got light sleet in University Park...

mookie- hah yeah I just came back to post that it was light sleet. I looked out the window and saw snow flakes in a street light but I just opened the window. Definitely sleet

I have light snow here in Arnold, temperature is 27F...

I'm guessing you two are among those who wouldn't want to know the sex of the baby after an ultrasound. Better to maintain that artificial "suspense" a little while longer, even though knowing might save you from having to consider certain names, for example, that you would certainly discard if you knew. Why waste your time?

Even if it is not a life and death situation doesn't mean there is not a cost to uncertainty. When peopke change travel plans or reschedule meetings or events based on weather that doesn't materialize (or get stranded by surprise storms) there is still an "inconvenience cost". Not to mention the misuse (or undreuse) of public resources like road crews. To me, any advances we can make towards lessening these costs are clearly a good thing. Maybe to you these costs are worth it in order to see those nerdy scientists and their "billions of dollars of supercomputers" put in their place from time to time, but unfortunately its other people that pay the price for this little vicarious thrill.

I don't see any snow from my window on UMD campus but I could be wrong... listening outside however makes it sound like light sleet is falling. Whatever will cancel my 9am exam I will take!

well. my vacation just got shortened... at least a day... (losing a nights condo cost, too). my entire flight plan to the Caribbean (VIA NEWARK!?!??!) got pushed back a day. what are the chances my 7am flight SATURDAY to newark will be canceled??? (and what about newark to caribbean, for that matter, on saturday morning)
okay, i'm done complaining. sorry.

I don't see anything from UMD. UMD so far seems like a terrible place for snow, barely got a dusting yesterday.

I'm only going to speak for myself, as I don't know exactly how mcleaNed feels about this. I'll agree with you that there is definitely a money factor that has ramifications throughout the region, and even throughout the country (especially in regards to air travel.) I'm not trying to say that making a good forecast is a bad, evil thing, I love to see forecast come to fruition, especially when they're for 8" of snow. However, I think there is something to be said about our society when we freak out when we don't have control over everything, in this case the weather. I'm not just talking about seeing a forecast bust either really, thats humbling for the forecasters(and yes for us as well to see that even the experts don't have a firm grasp on it), but also the weather event itself. There is something to be said for a foot of snow that can shutdown an entire state. People will complain too, about how they are stuck at home, and can't go to work. I understand that there are things that come out of this that are negative, but I really think that depends on how you perceive things. To me we as humans need those times when we loose control, and have to get back to the basics in order to survive. It helps us to realize who we are in a way, and also teaches us to interact as a community, which in our society is something that seems to be fading everyday.

I don't see weather in terms of "inconvenience cost." When snow begins to fall, I don't start thinking about my tax dollars or my connections. Maybe this is because I'm not part of the "real world" yet; maybe I was just born with this abnormality.

My views may be coming across to you as childish, and I don't blame you--in more ways than one, I'm still a child. But forgive me if I stand fascinated at falling snow while others rush to make connections or exchange forecast specifics. Forgive me if I prefer the predictions that turn out to be wrong. I'm one of the deluded few that spends more time engaged in weather than trying to circumvent its effects.

Kenny and Evan- I'm on campus too. I don't even hear the sleet noise anymore. Ugh, the worst would be if it really is icy tomorrow but we have to walk to class in it.

I am with ArnoldK and McleaNed on this one. While the importance of good forecasting for safety reasons should not be minimized, I, for one, like to look out my window and contemplate the beauty that is Mother Nature sometimes. It is nice to look at a snow covered lawn, or the leaves beginning to come out, or a lovely green lawn sparkling in the rain without wondering if the forecast is right and what is the doppler showing. There is no harm in stopping and smelling the roses in this world of "must have all the answers right now."

And for the record, should I ever have children, I do not want to know the sex before the baby is born. Good surprises are a wonder to be a appreciated, not written off as a waste of time. Not everything can be reduced to dollars and cents.

On a non-philosophical note... anyone else get the impression that this snow is drying up once it hits the ground? I don't see melting or freezing--just disappearing.

A little hunch tells me that the radar to our southwest might begin filling in soon. I like what the storm to our southeast is doing; perhaps it will glance us before all is said and done.

I was noticing that too...I had a light dusting and 20 minutes later there was nothing there, and the winds are calm. the storm in the south in my opinion looks pretty good for us. I just looked at pressure falls, and they have fallen dramatically off the NC coast which points to coastal development. It will be interesting to see how that goes...

Today's Capitalweather joke of the day:

Milton: "What kind of weather phenomenon takes place in Miami every day?"
Brad: "Coastal development!"

(You know, like, condo construction on beaches? I'm sorry. That's the best I can do for 2 in the morning.)

mcleaNed,
if it makes me laugh while studying pre-calc, its a winner :)

On the edge of the precip here in the Leesburg area. I think we are getting sleet at the moment mixded with a little snow. I predicted earlier in the day that the WSW would be downgraded when everyone else was still going in super hype mode. The NWS update should be coming out shortly---let's see.

ep-The point I am making has nothing to do with "contemplating the beauty of nature". By all means, contemplate to your heart's content. My point has to do with believing that better forecasting (i.e. less uncertainty) is a clear net plus for society.

I think those who seem to feel differently here have taken an understandable discomfort with "technology" (loosely defined) and erroneously displaced it into some areas where better science and technology is clearly our friend. That is not always the case, but when it comes to forecasting the weather (and knowing the sex of your child sooner) better information is a net benefit.

And BTW, I don't agree that less uncertainty would detract from a site like CapWeather. To the contrary, I think it would ADD to its attractiveness. Just read the posts that we seee when snow is predicited: "When will it start? "How much will my neighborhood get" "What about my flight?" "What about the schools?" Folks seem to come here looking for answers, for imformation and the better that information can be, I think the more people this site would attract, not fewer.

Seems like Winter Storm Warning is remaining in effect for most of the area.

Getting some sleet right now in Germantown.

I see that we're both burning the midnight oil here. :-)

I'm no Luddite--don't get me wrong. I find that technology helps me out more than it hurts me. Nor is a perfect forecast something to condemn, not praise.
I suppose the point that I'm trying to make is twofold. First, there's some good to be had in a blown forecast, even if it means no snow: it teaches us to never assume completely, and to adjust to unexpected situations. Second, I feel as if too many people consider weather a day-to-day nuisance instead of something to look into and admire.

I really need to sleep more.

Federal Government Operating Status in the Washington, DC, Area
the following message applies only to Friday, February 22, 2008

Federal agencies in the Washington, DC, area are OPEN under an UNSCHEDULED LEAVE policy.

This Means . . .
Employees who cannot report for work may request unscheduled leave for their entire scheduled workday. Employees must notify their supervisors of their intent to take unscheduled leave.
Emergency employees are expected to report for work on time.
Posted on February 22, 2008 at 4:17 AM

A whole lotta squat in DC

A whole lotta sleet (and freezing rain) in McLean. The trusty ol' weather deck is showing definite pieces of sleet and regular old rain droplets.

Radar doesn't look bad, to be honest. The dry slot to our southwest does seem to be filling in.

Congrats kids:

No school in Fairfax and Loudoun today.

As for the storm:

BUST-O-RAMA!

Very frustrating!!!

Montgomery, FFX, Loudoun all closed

NO SCHOOL FOR MONTGOMEREY COUNTY
THANK YOU ICE AND SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It was worth staying up this late just to hear the sleet mix in with my keystrokes and confirm that FCPS was closed.

I have one word for Friday's commute, though: UGLY. There's already significant icing out on the deck and the brick pathway, and the road is quite wet at the moment--soon to become frozen, unless temps rise sharply. I could see DC schools closing, too.

It's been a fun night, everyone! I promise to go to bed now.

Fairfax Co Schools - VA - Closed. Liberal leave

Falls Church City Schools - Closed

Loudoun Co Schools - VA - Closed

More closeings are pooring in fast.
In culpeper va we have mod sleet and freezing rain now.

PW Closed
DC-On time

Doesn't look like it's doing squat in lake ridge, and none of the news outlets are reporting this...but the PWCPS website is:

Today, 2/22/2008, all Prince William County Public Schools are closed on Code Red. The School Age Care Program will not open.

WOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:)

i would feel sorry for those DC kids if they dont close b/c they never do. I live in Culpeper and they wait until the last minute and when kids are getting ready to walk out the door,they close lol.

never thought i'd see the day every other system closed before fauquier .... and, god these news people look too damn perky at 5 a.m. ... oh yeah, light sleet beginning to coat the deck but temps hanging in at 27

Yeah, it would suck to live in DC or one of those cities.

MANASSAS CITY and STAFFORD COUNTY SCHOOLS also CLOSED

ARLINGTON COUNTY closed as well. Amazing, lol.

Word from channel 9 that DC schools will open on time. i am in culpeper va and its about 27.6 outside and its about 31 in DC so i think the major iceing is gonna be just west of interstate 95.

Oh my god, did he really just say that?

Virg Jacques on Fox 5 just said this:

"...be careful, because there is a good chance that the freezing rain might freeze on contact..."

LOL - I'm sorry, I just love how they have to dumb everything down for everyone.

Arlington Co Schools - VA - Closed

Fairfax Co Schools - VA - Closed. Liberal leave

Falls Church City Schools - Closed

Loudoun Co Schools - VA - Closed

Manassas City Schools - VA - Closed

Pr William Co Schools - VA - Closed. Code Red

Spotsylvania Co Schools - VA - Closed

Stafford Co Schools - VA - Closed

Fauquier Co Schools - VA - Closed

A skim of ice on some cars in DC, they need to take down the Winter Storm Warning. Previously back in Front Royal I sailed past the park and ride, had to coast to a stop and back up. My bus did the same thing. I would leave it up there until they get some salt on that road.