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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/16/2008

Forecast: Circular Holiday Weekend Weather

By Jason Samenow

Clear start and finish, cloudy (wet) middle

The weather will complete a cycle this holiday weekend. It will begin clear and cool today, become cloudy Sunday, then relatively mild and rainy Sunday night, before clear and cool conditions return Monday evening.


Sunny and cool. 40-45. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees colder than yesterday, so it will feel a bit wintry. Despite the chill, we'll have plenty of sunshine and dry conditions. Overnight, clear skies early will give way to an increase in high clouds late. Lows will be cold -- near 30 downtown and mid 20s out towards Clarksburg, MD and Centreville, VA.

Keep reading for the forecast for Sunday and next week...


Cloudy, rain late. Mid 40s. Clouds will lower and thicken in the morning, with a bit of light rain possible during the afternoon (50% chance). If the precipitation moves in early enough well to the west, it could briefly mix with sleet or freezing rain in places like Leesburg and Hagerstown in the morning. However, we will NOT see a repeat performance of Tuesday's iciness in the immediate metro area. Not nearly as much cold air will be in place as this next storm approaches. By late afternoon, most spots should be well into the 40s.

Overnight temperatures will likely rise due to strong southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain will fall, heavy at times, with temperatures around 50.

Four jets pass by with small contrails over Glover Park, DC, late Valentine's day afternoon. By Capital Weather Gang photographer Ian Livingston.


Early rain, then clearing and windy. Near 50, but falling. Some rain showers will linger during the early morning hours as a cold front passes by, but the area should dry out by noon. During the afternoon, sunshine will return but gusty northwest winds will tap noticeably cooler air by dark.


Tuesday and Wednesday will both be partly sunny and cold, with highs near 40 and lows in the 20s.

As of now, Thursday and Friday appear unsettled with a chance of rain or mixed precipitation with highs in the 30s to near 40.

By Jason Samenow  | February 16, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Cloudy and Wet, then Winter Wakes?


This winter has been a major bust. The pattern is to the west and that is the way it will stay for this winter. We do need to set our sights again to next winter.

Posted by: greg | February 16, 2008 7:55 AM | Report abuse

Maybe I was wrong -

Posted by: Greg | February 16, 2008 8:04 AM | Report abuse

The Blue Ridge and Shenandoah Valley may receive a period of freezing rain and sleet Sunday am., The 06 NAM is more bullish on this prospect than the 00Z was, especially sw areas. Sunday will be a chilly day with some areas struggling to get out of the 30's with a modified wedge in place. Mostly rain should fall later Sunday and Sunday night with .50-1.00 QP.

Late week looks very interesting with perhaps a prolonged winter weather event that will give us a potpouri of snow, sleet and freezing rain, resulting from strong high pressure to our north and organizing low pressure to our sw, overunning a front to our south. The GFS and EURO have differences as usual, with the 00z EURO looking at a warmer solution than the 12z, and the 06z GFS colder than the 00z.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 16, 2008 8:28 AM | Report abuse

Booooooooooooooooooo winter.

Posted by: Period | February 16, 2008 8:38 AM | Report abuse

What do you guys think of the forecast discussion by the NWS? (late week storm)

Posted by: Model Monkey | February 16, 2008 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Agree with NWS. Potential for significant wintry precip by Wed night/Thurs next week. But still too early to give details.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 16, 2008 10:06 AM | Report abuse

Here's my take on the up-coming winter storms:

Posted by: William M. | February 16, 2008 10:14 AM | Report abuse

12z GFS continues threat for mid week wintry weather... signal for long duration event remains as well.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | February 16, 2008 12:00 PM | Report abuse

i'm flying out of Reagan on friday morning at 7am. to newark (nj). then down to the caribbean (why through newark? i don't know). what are my chances of problems based on this new weather information that's starting to unravel?

Posted by: .jeff. | February 16, 2008 3:48 PM | Report abuse

jeff -- gotta love the back-tracking, no? as for your question, I wish I could help but it's just too far away to give any sort of skilled guess whatsoever. Maybe by Tuesday we could begin to have a general idea of the potential impacts and timing of any wintry weather that could affect you on Friday.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | February 16, 2008 4:28 PM | Report abuse

Odd, but TWC 7-day outlook is only calling for showers (rain) Wed/Thurs. Temps in 30s/40s. They're usually "colder" than most forecasts.

On a somewhat related topic, sun today felt strong. Can tell we're moving towards March. Increasing sun angle could limit wintry precip from here on out.

Posted by: Ivan | February 16, 2008 4:48 PM | Report abuse

thanks dan.

Posted by: .jeff. | February 16, 2008 5:10 PM | Report abuse

Anymore insight on the potential Wed/Thur Storm? Thx!

Posted by: Snowlover | February 16, 2008 6:43 PM | Report abuse

Will Moco have classes on Friday?? Just kidding. Thought I'd prepare everyone for the million school inquiries coming this week!! :-)

Posted by: School | February 16, 2008 7:42 PM | Report abuse

what r the accumulation predictions for the storm? Thx,


Posted by: d | February 16, 2008 8:45 PM | Report abuse

Jason or Dan,

I forgot to ask this, Will u do a snowlovers crystal ball for the possible storm WED, THU? THX, D

Posted by: d | February 16, 2008 8:50 PM | Report abuse

No they will completely ignore the potential storm and pretend it is July. Duh.

Posted by: No | February 16, 2008 9:25 PM | Report abuse

Wouldn't get 2 excited over the storm 4 mid week. Might b a brief period 4 some of the area 4 snow wintry prec., but will not b a major snow event. This winter almost over & I expect March 2 have slightly below temps, but no major snow storms. Not saying a few flakes will fall, don't expect anything major; besides it's time 2 start bass fishing. Warm winter has screwed my striper fishing again, at the 301 Bridge, 4 the 3rd straight yr. At least I did a 40lb this yr.

Posted by: VaTechBob. | February 16, 2008 9:34 PM | Report abuse

Oh, VaTechBob! I cringe now before reading your comments! You never say what I want to hear, and this winter you've been pretty on target. Say it isn't so!

Posted by: Snowlover2! | February 16, 2008 10:01 PM | Report abuse

The AAG seems to be broken.

Posted by: ~sg | February 16, 2008 10:17 PM | Report abuse

I took a 3 day break from the models and weather for the sake of continual depressing and hopeless chances of snow.

I just logged on posts and am pleasantly suprised at the extended period of light snow potential. Whats going to help us on accumulation is the extended period of winter precip if models hold. Hey, ya know when ol VTechBob says we may see some flakes, its no joke.....:)

Sorry about the bass fishing this winter VTBob...I've only caught lots of loud croakers in Deltaville,VA.
Question VTBob? Do you like the snow. I have never figured it out. I realize you must enjoy cold weather for good fishing.

Posted by: StormChaser | February 16, 2008 10:24 PM | Report abuse

The AAG seems to be fixed. Thanks!

Posted by: ~sg | February 16, 2008 10:33 PM | Report abuse

Very true.You do have a point StormChaser. VATEch Bob tends to look at the glass half empty when it comes to the winter weather but has been on target all winter, so you certainly cannot agrue that. The fact that he mentions the possibility of flakes is enough to warrent better odds.

Posted by: CfromVA | February 16, 2008 10:39 PM | Report abuse

Personally, I wish VATechBob would share more insight on his calls and predictions minus some of his hopebusting comments here and there.....:)

Posted by: StormChaser | February 16, 2008 10:46 PM | Report abuse

00z gfs says 4-8 inches for DC next week.... but its way to early to be sure...

Posted by: snowman in herndon | February 16, 2008 11:44 PM | Report abuse

Yes I'm a snow lover, but learned a long time ago that wishing & hoping 4 snow doesn't work. This area is very border line 4 snow & mild winters just make the chances a whole lot less. Still don't see a snow storm 4 mid week but sometimes the weather does throw a curve. Any snow that may fall in March will quickly melt away, March snows just seem like a waste, need them in Jan. When it comes 2 snow in this area, expect the worse & hope 4 the best.

Posted by: VaTechBob. | February 17, 2008 12:20 AM | Report abuse

4-8 inches is not a snowstorm come on now. think positive.

Posted by: josh | February 17, 2008 12:26 AM | Report abuse

VaTechBob seems to destroy our snow hopes with no explanation sometimes.. Tell us why it won't snow this week and what are you basing that on.

Posted by: HEELS | February 17, 2008 12:56 AM | Report abuse

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