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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/14/2008

Forecast: A Lovely Change of Pace

By Josh Larson

Clearing, seasonable for Valentine's Day; warmer tomorrow

For those sick of the alternatively icy, wet and sometimes snowy weather (depending on where you live) of the past couple days, today will present a welcome and well-timed change, with clearing skies and near-average temperatures for Valentine's Day. Thereafter, however, temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster Friday through the start of next week. The next chance for precipitation -- most likely of the liquid variety -- will be Sunday into President's Day.


Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, mid 40s. Early morning clouds and the possibility of a few flurries, especially south and east of town, will give way to a mostly sunny Valentine's Day. Plan on high temperatures in the mid 40s -- right about where they should be this time of year -- along with breezy winds from the northwest, diminishing somewhat in the afternoon. Clear and chilly overnight, with lows dropping to the mid 20s in the suburbs and near freezing downtown.


Sun then clouds, mid 50s. Friday should feature a good amount of sunshine during the first half of the day, with noticeably milder temperatures hitting the mid 50s. We'll see increased cloudiness from the afternoon hours on, ahead of what will probably be a precipitation-free cold front pushing through late in the day. Expect mostly cloudy and breezy conditions Friday night, with lows dropping to 25-30.

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend as well as a sneak peek at early next week.


Upper 30s Saturday, 40s on Sunday with chance of rain late.

Prepare for noticeably colder temperatures on Saturday compared to Friday. Despite abundant sunshine, most places will have trouble breaking out of the upper 30s. Mostly clear and cold Saturday night, with lows ranging from the low 20s in places like Damascus and Herndon to the upper 20s downtown.

On Sunday, increasing clouds will signal the approach of a large area of low pressure from the southwest as highs reach the 40s. Substantial rain is a possibility from the latter part of Sunday into early Monday, with Sunday night lows in the mid to upper 30s.


Expect President's Day to be mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of showers, though some afternoon drying and clearing is possible. Highs will probably be in the mid to upper 40s, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

There are indications that Tuesday will be windy and colder with highs ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s.

By Josh Larson  | February 14, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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If we go up to the mid-high 40s today, it's going to melt that inch of snow that we got overni -- oh wait, it DIDN'T snow! AGAIN! Dreamland 2/29 models aside, I'm giving into VATechBob's dire predictions and will no longer look for nor wish for snow in the 07-08 winter season. In fact, I think I'll move north to become PAStateOfMind, since they at least have been getting snow this winter....

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | February 14, 2008 5:48 AM | Report abuse

18 degrees.....everything frozen snow here, last night, from what I can tell.

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | February 14, 2008 6:12 AM | Report abuse

Briefly saw some light snow last night, it lasted maybe 10 minutes. The sunrise this morning looks beautiful. Its chilly at 25F.

Posted by: arnoldkh | February 14, 2008 7:06 AM | Report abuse

And for those of you looking for snow take a look at this:

Posted by: arnoldkh | February 14, 2008 7:08 AM | Report abuse

There were three flurries last night (midnight) when I left Tyson's after working late.

Wow---reminded me of the Blizzard on 1996!

Posted by: greg | February 14, 2008 7:14 AM | Report abuse

WOW, I'm looking at the beautiful beautiful snow in Lake Ridge. Schools are closed, people are sweeping snow off their cars, and the scraping of shovels is all that can be heard for miles.

Other than dripping with sarcasm, that last paragraph is what I WANTED to say today. Stupid winds drying out the air. WIND BLOWS. :D

There are some slick spots out there, so watch out.

VDOT or whoever does the sanding on the side streets here needs to hire some new people. When they sanded last night (yes...last night), they didn't spread the sand around. It is in a thin strip in the middle of the road. I got a good laugh out of that.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | February 14, 2008 7:23 AM | Report abuse

Weatherdue after your high school career perhaphs you could get a job on a sanding truck and show them the correct way to do it.

Posted by: No snow? | February 14, 2008 7:44 AM | Report abuse

Nahh, I want to be the person that predicts the weather that makes those guys dump the thin strip of sand in the middle of the street. LOL ;)

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | February 14, 2008 8:08 AM | Report abuse

Weatherdude, that's for the bicyclists. Duh.

Posted by: Mark | February 14, 2008 9:34 AM | Report abuse

Things looked interesting for a while yesterday evening as the precip. streamed n.e. from western N.C. and s.w. Va. I received 1/4 inch of snow, but timing can be critical with a progressive flow. The 500 mb vortex continued to shift east, allowing a n.w. flow to shunt most of the snow to the southeast of the D.C. latitude. The models indicated the best chances for acc. snow to be east of D.C. and this generally held true.

Weathergrrl asked me some questions in the Commute Cast post at 5:37 pm yesterday. I answered these questions at 8:35 pm. Contained within my answers was praise for the CWG and criticism of the NWS. Almost on cue,the NWS provided a wonderful example to support my criticism.

The forecast discussion from Sterling issued at 4:16 am this morning contained the following statement relating to the system later this coming weekend: "Precip. may start briefly as a mix but given strong 925 mb winds from the south....should see a rapid warmup for an all rain event". 12 minutes later at 4:28 the forecast for my area was issued.

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the low 40's P.O.P.- 50%. Sunday Night: Snow,sleet or freezing rain likely. Lows in the low 30's. Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers.

Does one support the other?? What is the reasoning behind this?? Certainly no support from any of the models! Yes we may have another cad situation Sunday, but not enough to support their Sunday night forecast. This forecast idea covers all areas west of the B.R. I checked 3 locations.

This type of nonsense is common from the NWS. It is another disappointing example of our federal tax dollars hard at work.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 14, 2008 9:44 AM | Report abuse

What are the chances of MoCo closing tomorrow???

TOTALLY kidding! Still numb from all the school closing/delay posts from yesterday. :-)

Posted by: MoSnow | February 14, 2008 9:54 AM | Report abuse

Aw crud!!! Rain for my next dance, Sunday night!!! I think I've got a ride. Problem is I don't like these precipitation--impacted low-attendance dances!!!

Posted by: El Bombo | February 14, 2008 10:56 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, can't we get CLEAR WEATHER for a dance...PLEASE??? They are still threatening "Mix" for this one!

Don't need another eight-hour Mixing Bowl stall-off!

Let's have a fair-weather dance, with 350+ attendance, not another rainy night with fewer than 125 attendees! I'd like to see that lady from Fredericksburg again!

Posted by: El Bombo | February 14, 2008 11:02 AM | Report abuse

Did anybody notice the ludicrous amount of salt the DDOT put down on DC roads last night? For what? There wasn't even that much frozen precip predicted. What were they thinking?

Posted by: Feckless Tom | February 14, 2008 11:56 AM | Report abuse

Hello, of course I came to visit your site and thanks for letting me know about it.
I just read this post and wanted to say it is full of number one resources. Some I am familiar with. For those who don't know these other sites they are in for a treat as there is a lot to learn there.

Posted by: Male Enhancement | March 6, 2008 7:09 AM | Report abuse

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