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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 02/ 1/2008

Forecast: Partly Frozen then Flooded with Rain

By Camden Walker

After today's soaker, a pleasant weekend

**Winter Weather Advisory until noon N & W of DC**

School delays

For an assessment of the local impacts of wintry weather in the northern & western counties of the metro area and current temperatures, see Jason's post below.

WeatherCamWe've got quite a dynamic Friday on tap. The upshot is after today's possible early morning ice (mainly north and west of the beltway), heavy rain, and risk of thunderstorms, we'll have a pleasant, soothing and DRY weekend to enjoy.


Wintry, wet and wild. Low 50s. There may be a mixed bag of precipitation around the during the morning rush from rain (possibly mixing with sleet) downtown to some sleet and freezing rain in outlying suburbs (towards Loudoun and Frederick counties). Drive carefully and allow extra time for your commute. By the mid-day hours, it will quickly warm through the 40s and everyone will have plain rain which may be heavy at times. A thunderstorm is even possible in the early to mid-afternoon, particularly south and east of the metro area. Rainfall totals will likely be over an inch. Winds will be out of the east and southeast at 10-15, with higher gusts possible in the afternoon and in thunderstorms.

Overnight, winds will shift to the drier westerly direction as temperatures slowly fall toward the mid 30s. Clouds will gradually diminish towards daybreak.

Keep reading for the forecast for the weekend & beyond...


Muuuch better, sunny, low to mid 50s. After paying our penance on Friday, mother nature will give us dry and mild weather. Skies will clear out in the morning to reveal a nice warming sun. Temperatures will climb above 50 in most areas and westerly winds will drop below 10mph by evening, becoming southerly.


Mostly sunny and mild. Mid 50s. The morning will start off a bit chilly with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s. The sun will be dominant for most of the day although I can't rule out a few clouds. With afternoon high reaching the mid 50s, Sunday could be warmest day in the past two weeks!


After a dry and mild Monday near 50 degrees, Monday night presents our next chance of showers with overnight lows in the mid 40s. Tuesday has the potential to be unseasonably WARM with southerly winds perhaps pumping in 60+ degree air. We'll have to look out for showers at night though, which could linger into Wednesday morning with the passage of a cold front. The front will dry things out by Wednesday afternoon easing high temperatures down a bit, from the 50s on Wednesday to the 40s Thursday.

By Camden Walker  | February 1, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Update: Assessing Impacts of AM Ice
Next: Update: Temperatures Rising Above Freezing


33 degrees, steady light to moderate rain in Kingstowne/Springfield area of FfxCo. And although Fairfax looks to be ENTIRELY within the rain portion of radar, we still have a 2-hr school delay...

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | February 1, 2008 5:42 AM | Report abuse

Prince George's County schools are delayed 2 hours too. Have no idea why.

Posted by: Everett W. | February 1, 2008 5:56 AM | Report abuse

Other then the mountain (28 degrees when I left at 4am) I didnt encounter any problems on 66 from exit 13 all the way into the city.

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | February 1, 2008 5:58 AM | Report abuse

No ice on Rte 50 west bound or around the top side of the beltway. Ramp from outerloop of beltway to Connecticut Ave was slick. No ice on Connecticut Ave southbound or 410 westbound.

Posted by: Elizabeth Commute from Annapolis to Bethesda | February 1, 2008 6:11 AM | Report abuse

It looks like Fairfax saw Montgomery go 2-hr's and followed suit, they didn't want to take a chance.... they also made the call at 430am...

Posted by: Tim, Alexandria, VA | February 1, 2008 6:18 AM | Report abuse

Thanks for all the reports you all. Sounds like everyone is playing it safe--which is good--including school systems waiting to see how long cold temperatures stick around during the precipitation(?--at least that's my guess)

In my opinion, PG roads should be a.ok. Even downtown here in the Logan area, we are above 33 degrees now...

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | February 1, 2008 6:20 AM | Report abuse

Wow, I almost went to the bus stop a few minutes ago. I bet there were will be many kids going to school thinking it's just an ordinary day.

Posted by: Peter | February 1, 2008 6:49 AM | Report abuse

Left Herndon @ 5:45am. No problems. My vehicle is parked on the top level of a parking garage overnight, thus one of the coldest spots. Windshield was icy, but the ice was already starting to melt. Must have briefly dropped below freezing and then rose above once the steadier rain brought down the warmer temps.

Posted by: Ivan | February 1, 2008 7:13 AM | Report abuse

Typed the capitalweather URL for the first time this season, thought I typed it wrong. Looks like a secondary low forming over western SC which should help lock the current cold in place out west. I wouldn't expect much of a warmup until the major precip is over.

Posted by: Eric | February 1, 2008 7:26 AM | Report abuse

I was surprised at some of the school systems that delayed today. PG county? Come on! I'm pretty amazed that PWC didn't delay with the freezing rain showing up out to the west near Haymarket and and those areas. I'm absolutely convinced now that we will NEVER EVER EVER EVER get out of school due to winter weather again. EVER. Thankfully I'm a senior next year so I won't have to worry about it too much.

It was POURING in Lake Ridge around 630, seems to have let up a bit but still steadily raining.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | February 1, 2008 7:27 AM | Report abuse

Guess DC will see no more arctic outbreaks this year . . . or perhaps ever.

Posted by: WSL | February 1, 2008 7:36 AM | Report abuse

Good morning. Any reports of ice in Fauquier, Loudoun and/or Frederick Counties (all who have now closed schools)? Looks like last night's SchoolCast was pretty much on target :)

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 1, 2008 7:41 AM | Report abuse

Can Capital Weather Gang, or anyone for that matter update me on the potential Feb 10 storm? In other words, is it still alive? Thx!

Posted by: Snowlover | February 1, 2008 7:42 AM | Report abuse

29 degrees and freezing rain at 7:45. About .25 inch of ice accretion. Highways are slippery and schools are closed today.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 1, 2008 7:47 AM | Report abuse

Snowlover, as a general rule -- while some commenters like to point out storms on models more than a week away -- they rarely, if ever, come true. We cannot accurately predict storms beyond 5-7 days so I would be VERY skeptical about forecasts beyond that.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 1, 2008 7:48 AM | Report abuse

I'm driving west (I-66) out of town for the weekend after work tonight. Will it still be raining? Do you think there will still be ice on the roads in Page County by this evening?

Posted by: JP | February 1, 2008 8:01 AM | Report abuse

Jason, I drove throughout eastern Loudoun this morning between 6:15 and 6:45. Just nothing but a heavy heavy rain. Didn't see any ice at all. Radio reported it was snowing in Leesburg though?

Posted by: Dulles | February 1, 2008 8:02 AM | Report abuse

JP: The precip will end from west to east during the late afternoon and evening. In Page County, temps should rise above freezing in most spots by noon. So, you should be fine.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 1, 2008 8:05 AM | Report abuse

I agree with Jason concerning details of model data beyond 168hrs. You may have noticed that I refer to this timeframe as "Dreamland". Having said this, there is still indication of potential between Feb.9-12, but the latest GFS puts us on the warm side of the system.

The longwave pattern does not favor southern systems moving up the east coast, instead they are favoring an Ohio Valley track because of high pressure ridging off the southeast coast. A similar pattern predominated last winter. That is one of the reasons that we witnessed a failed El Nino last year and the beginning of drought over the southeast.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 1, 2008 8:21 AM | Report abuse

.55 inches of rain overnight in NW Montgomery. Not a trace of ice even though it is 32.3

Posted by: JT | February 1, 2008 8:39 AM | Report abuse

Looks like rain totals will be well over an inch--I have recorded .94 already this morning...

Posted by: steve takoma park md | February 1, 2008 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Was able to get in today. Big problem could involve getting drenched on my way home after lunch. Since rain figures to taper off this evening, the biggest problem involving my Mardi Gras dance @ the Elks Lodge tonight would relate to those who stay home due to the foul weather earlier today.

Posted by: El Bombo | February 1, 2008 10:25 AM | Report abuse

Was wondering why so much rain today. Now I see Bombo has a dance scheduled. Should've known.

Posted by: Mark | February 1, 2008 10:50 AM | Report abuse storm for the 9th? I thought we were generating enough snow enthusiasm to make this so even against the NAO and La Nina. Come on now, all together lets click our ruby heels.."There's nothing like snow, there's nothing like snow..."

Posted by: missy | February 1, 2008 11:09 AM | Report abuse

Question: If the models are notoriously unreliable at ten days out so that often a potential snow storm fizzles before it happens, how come the reverse doesn't happen? How come we don't have a day that ten days out looks clear and above freezing that suddenly turns into guess what a big snow storm? And people would be saying "Well ten days out we didn't see this one coming but this is a Dreamnow"

Posted by: missy | February 1, 2008 11:36 AM | Report abuse

I'm trying this for the first time.

The drive at 1PM from Greenbelt to Lanham, MD was all standing water on 495. About 5 ambulances were heading to the College Pk area (accident?). Otherwise the grassy areas were ponding, so I hope this saturates in the ground rather than runoff. Finally, I'll take all precip this month, so that a drought threat could be avoided this year !

Posted by: Danimal | February 1, 2008 2:48 PM | Report abuse

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