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Posted at 7:00 PM ET, 02/26/2008

Some Drops in the Bucket

By Steve Scolnik

Moderate drought continues, especially south of the Potomac


Month-to-date % of normal precipitation, from National Weather Service. Click image to enlarge.

Rainfall amounts from today's showers have been generally light across the area, with totals around 0.1" through late afternoon. Thanks to the record-breaking rain at the beginning and reinforcing amounts in the middle of the month, February's official precipitation so far of over 4" will still go down in the official record books as substantially above normal, regardless of what happens by Leap Day on Friday. Counting today, the nine days with measurable precipitation are nearly equal to the monthly average of 9.5.

For the region as a whole, on the other hand, it's a much more mixed picture. Even as near as Dulles, precipitation totals for the month to date are barely reaching average. Further to the west, areas around Harrisonburg are in the range of 25-50% of the long-term average. Charlottesville's 1.65" total is less than half that of Washington National. In fact, except for some northernmost parts of Virginia, the Potomac River separates the normal to above-normal conditions in most of Maryland from widespread areas of below normal amounts in large parts of Virginia and West Virginia.

By Steve Scolnik  | February 26, 2008; 7:00 PM ET
Categories:  Droughts, Local Climate  
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Next: Forecast: On a Chilly Day, Spring Seems Far Away

Comments

Doug :
Forget about the 3-4 event, The GFS has often dreamed about snowstorms this winter that never materialized. Anything is possible,but not likely. I believe that our concerns should be focused on what will almost certainly be severe drought conditions this coming spring and summer, unless this pattern changes quickly!!

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 26, 2008 8:33 PM | Report abuse

Yup, darn it. Oh well, I didn't get my hopes too high anyway.

From the LWX discussion, 910 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | February 26, 2008 9:39 PM | Report abuse

Jim, Suprised to hear that from you....Thanks for answering my question..Mr. Hypocrite.. love how much support I get from my fellow bloggers.

Posted by: Doug | February 26, 2008 9:43 PM | Report abuse

3/4 event is known as wish casting. Temps r going 2 b way to warm. Time 2 give up the snow ghost. I love snow as much as the next person, but wishing & hoping isn't going 2 make it happen. It's almost March, time 4 spring. I agree with Jim, we need lots of rain this spring to get us thru, what I think is going 2 b, a blast furnance & extremely dry summer. Sorry 2 b the bearer of bad news 4 snow lovers, but facts r facts.

Posted by: V | February 26, 2008 9:45 PM | Report abuse

you guys are giving up too quick....models always loose storms then bring them back.....Im not ready to talk about spring till next week is over.... 3/8 is our last fighting chance if Models don't bring 3/4 back

Posted by: Anonymous | February 26, 2008 10:07 PM | Report abuse

you guys are giving up too quick....models always loose storms then bring them back.....Im not ready to talk about spring till next week is over.... 3/8 is our last fighting chance if Models don't bring 3/4 back

Posted by: Anonymous | February 26, 2008 10:07 PM | Report abuse

All is not lost just because March is on our doorstep. I remember like it was yesterday going to work on March 9, 1999, and expecting a dusting to an inch from a clipper system moving down the Potomac valley from the Midwest. Instead, the Federal Government closed at 3 p.m., and DCA had 8 inches of snow by 7 p.m. And it wasn't even a coastal low! Check it out: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/1999/3/9/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Posted by: JeffLoganCircleDC | February 26, 2008 10:31 PM | Report abuse

The guy across the road says he got over a foot of snow in April '06. So anything is possible, at least in the mountains.

Posted by: S.P. Gass | February 27, 2008 12:29 AM | Report abuse

Considering that it tracked northeastward from Colorado and Oklahoma, that '99 storm wouldn't really meet the definition of a clippper.

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | February 27, 2008 12:34 AM | Report abuse

Doug,
Your comment was uncalled for, how is Auggie Jim a hypocrite? He didn't tell you what you wanted to hear? Support? What support, the models didn't lose the system, the temps are just trending warmer and warmer....

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | February 27, 2008 5:59 AM | Report abuse

What "moderate drought"???

Seems every night I've got a dance on schedule we seem to have plenty of this rain, moisture, and generally nasty weather!!! Last night proved no exception.

Let's get some "meteorological spring" for a change! Like mid-fifties to low sixties instead of this continual do-little thirties/forties weather! Heck, we're not even getting any decent SNOW out of it! Come on, the crocuses are starting to appear!

Posted by: El Bombo | February 27, 2008 10:03 AM | Report abuse

Thanks Steve - really appreciate this detailed review of the precip/drought conditions.

Posted by: Alexandria | February 28, 2008 12:11 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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