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Posted at 12:10 PM ET, 02/ 1/2008

Update: Advisory Expires, Deluge Continues

By Jason Samenow

The Winter Weather Advisory for the north and west suburbs has ended. The ice threat is over (except west of I-81 and in the sheltered valleys), but very heavy rain is now moving into the region with some embedded thunderstorms. Another 0.5-1" of rain is possible before it all tapers off late this afternoon (west of town) and early this evening (east of town). Temperatures will rise into 40s north and west of town and through the 40s inside the beltway and to the east this afternoon. South winds may be gusty, exceeding 20mph at times.

See Camden's post for the full forecast through the weekend and beyond.

By Jason Samenow  | February 1, 2008; 12:10 PM ET
Categories:  Updates  
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Next: CommuteCast: Much Needed Rain Ending

Comments

(I moved this from the other less active post blog) Question: If the models are notoriously unreliable at ten days out so that often a potential snow storm fizzles before it happens, how come it seems the reverse doesn't happen? How come we don't have a situation when ten days out it looks clear, above freezing and then surprise it turns into a big snow storm?

Posted by: Anonymous | February 1, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

If all this we're snow ...
we'd be in heaven now.
(sigh)

Posted by: jmbethesda | February 1, 2008 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Looks like another batch of moderate to heavy rain will come through.
To answer the above question, the situation can and does happen, however, we don't get a lot of big snow storms here in the DC region. X-(
Hope that helps.

Posted by: Model Monkey | February 1, 2008 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Missy: I agree with Model Monkey. The reverse situation where it's colder/snowier than the models predict can and does happen but maybe not as often. I think the models may have a bias which creates more storms in the long range than reality.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 1, 2008 1:03 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, Jason. I was thinking, as you said, that there seems to be a bias in the long term models toward storms.

Posted by: missy | February 1, 2008 1:19 PM | Report abuse

We are getting nailed right now, but it looks like this latest heavy line may be the last. 1.64" and raining hard....

Posted by: steve takoma park md | February 1, 2008 1:27 PM | Report abuse

So when is our next real chance of snow; if any?

Posted by: Snowlover | February 1, 2008 1:39 PM | Report abuse

71 degrees at Norfolk! Stuck on 32 here. Everything heavily laden with ice causing tree damage and some power outages.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 1, 2008 1:52 PM | Report abuse

As of the current hour, National is within about 0.1" of doubling the daily rainfall record for Feb. 1.

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | February 1, 2008 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Dig this, 39F at Richmond, 68F at Norfolk - 80 miles apart!!

Posted by: Nader | February 1, 2008 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Steve - how much is the record?

Posted by: Nader | February 1, 2008 2:06 PM | Report abuse

The temperature finally got to 32.2F at 1:10p today. Looks like about a 1/4" of ice. I posted a couple of pictures on my photoblog if interested: http://www.olddominionwildlife.com/

Posted by: S.P. Gass | February 1, 2008 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Good news about the rainfall stat. at National. If we could double our averages over the next 4-5 months, ground water levels would be in good shape.

VDOT announced at 1:36 that all 3 lanes of US Rt.250 east of Waynesboro across Afton Mt. are closed because of power lines down across the highway resulting from the heavy ice accretion.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | February 1, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Jim:
Where is Afton Mt.? What county?

Posted by: jmbethesda | February 1, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse

So it looks like the presumption that mid Feb might bring some snow was crushed to a pulp...

Posted by: Period | February 1, 2008 2:32 PM | Report abuse

1.60" here in NW Spotsy, this would have been a great snow storm, oh well. Snow outlook 4 the next 2 weeks looks bleak.

Posted by: VaTechBob. | February 1, 2008 2:32 PM | Report abuse

I suppose its customary for someone to say:

"This would have been one hell of a snowstorm."

:)

Posted by: jtf | February 1, 2008 2:43 PM | Report abuse

2" recorded here now. The weekend looks beautiful, 50s and sunny both days, and Accuweather has us at 69F on Tuesday! The cold pegged for mid-month just a few days ago has now shrunk to just one day with a high of 35F, otherwise 50s throughout the forecast period.

Posted by: steve takoma park md | February 1, 2008 2:48 PM | Report abuse

jmbethesda - Afton mountain is along Interstate 64, it is the pass between Waynesboro to the west and Charlottesville to the east. I think Albemarle County

Posted by: Nader | February 1, 2008 2:51 PM | Report abuse

imagine, 2 feet of snow
Oh well :-{
by the may on meteo madness on accuweather the GFS shows a "Big Daddy" in a week, do you think it will happen?

Posted by: sam | February 1, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

Along with snowlover, when is the next chance for cold temps/snow? February at all?

Posted by: missy | February 1, 2008 3:00 PM | Report abuse

1.25" of rain and 51F here in Arnold...very heavy rain right now.

Posted by: arnoldkh | February 1, 2008 3:05 PM | Report abuse

The best chance of snow may be next winter. Unless there's a change in the pattern, which looks unlikely anytime soon, Feb. looks pretty much snowless. But 1 can only hope.

Posted by: VaTechBob. | February 1, 2008 3:05 PM | Report abuse

Folks: I see no credible signs of snow in the next 5-7 days. If/when we do, we'll post a Snow Lover's Crystal Ball. That's our policy...we don't speculate on models showing storms 8, 10 or 12+ days from now. Matt recently posted that he didn't think prospects for February were that strong. If anything changes, we'll let you know-- we do like snow here.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 1, 2008 3:10 PM | Report abuse

Is the "model" bias demonstrated with statistics or just in our heads? It's easy to remember that a forecast called for snow 10 days later, but pretty hard to remember that a forecast *didn't* call for snow 10 days later. My recollection is that the President's day storm of 2003 was predicted as not being much several days out, and each day we got closer the forecaset snowfall increased.

Posted by: ah | February 1, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

The model bias towards developing too many snow storms beyond 7 days is anecdotal. I'll see about analyzing some verification info to determine if the suspicions of many are correct.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 1, 2008 3:30 PM | Report abuse

Yes, it seems the President's Day storm was pretty unexpected. Does anyone recall if 2003 was a La Nina year?

Posted by: missy | February 1, 2008 3:31 PM | Report abuse

missy,

2003 was an El Nino year. =(

Posted by: Period | February 1, 2008 3:39 PM | Report abuse

okay so all hope's lost.

Posted by: missy | February 1, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Afton Mountain is 4 miles east of Waynesboro.
It's the northern end of the Blue Ridge Parkway and the southern end of the Skyline Drive.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | February 1, 2008 5:52 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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