Update: Advisory Expires, Deluge Continues

(I moved this from the other less active post blog) Question: If the models are notoriously unreliable at ten days out so that often a potential snow storm fizzles before it happens, how come it seems the reverse doesn't happen? How come we don't have a situation when ten days out it looks clear, above freezing and then surprise it turns into a big snow storm?

If all this we're snow ...
we'd be in heaven now.
(sigh)

Looks like another batch of moderate to heavy rain will come through.
To answer the above question, the situation can and does happen, however, we don't get a lot of big snow storms here in the DC region. X-(
Hope that helps.

Missy: I agree with Model Monkey. The reverse situation where it's colder/snowier than the models predict can and does happen but maybe not as often. I think the models may have a bias which creates more storms in the long range than reality.

Thanks, Jason. I was thinking, as you said, that there seems to be a bias in the long term models toward storms.

We are getting nailed right now, but it looks like this latest heavy line may be the last. 1.64" and raining hard....

So when is our next real chance of snow; if any?

71 degrees at Norfolk! Stuck on 32 here. Everything heavily laden with ice causing tree damage and some power outages.

As of the current hour, National is within about 0.1" of doubling the daily rainfall record for Feb. 1.

Dig this, 39F at Richmond, 68F at Norfolk - 80 miles apart!!

Steve - how much is the record?

The temperature finally got to 32.2F at 1:10p today. Looks like about a 1/4" of ice. I posted a couple of pictures on my photoblog if interested: http://www.olddominionwildlife.com/

Good news about the rainfall stat. at National. If we could double our averages over the next 4-5 months, ground water levels would be in good shape.

VDOT announced at 1:36 that all 3 lanes of US Rt.250 east of Waynesboro across Afton Mt. are closed because of power lines down across the highway resulting from the heavy ice accretion.

Jim:
Where is Afton Mt.? What county?

So it looks like the presumption that mid Feb might bring some snow was crushed to a pulp...

1.60" here in NW Spotsy, this would have been a great snow storm, oh well. Snow outlook 4 the next 2 weeks looks bleak.

I suppose its customary for someone to say:

"This would have been one hell of a snowstorm."

:)

2" recorded here now. The weekend looks beautiful, 50s and sunny both days, and Accuweather has us at 69F on Tuesday! The cold pegged for mid-month just a few days ago has now shrunk to just one day with a high of 35F, otherwise 50s throughout the forecast period.

jmbethesda - Afton mountain is along Interstate 64, it is the pass between Waynesboro to the west and Charlottesville to the east. I think Albemarle County

imagine, 2 feet of snow
Oh well :-{
by the may on meteo madness on accuweather the GFS shows a "Big Daddy" in a week, do you think it will happen?

Along with snowlover, when is the next chance for cold temps/snow? February at all?

1.25" of rain and 51F here in Arnold...very heavy rain right now.

The best chance of snow may be next winter. Unless there's a change in the pattern, which looks unlikely anytime soon, Feb. looks pretty much snowless. But 1 can only hope.

Folks: I see no credible signs of snow in the next 5-7 days. If/when we do, we'll post a Snow Lover's Crystal Ball. That's our policy...we don't speculate on models showing storms 8, 10 or 12+ days from now. Matt recently posted that he didn't think prospects for February were that strong. If anything changes, we'll let you know-- we do like snow here.

Is the "model" bias demonstrated with statistics or just in our heads? It's easy to remember that a forecast called for snow 10 days later, but pretty hard to remember that a forecast *didn't* call for snow 10 days later. My recollection is that the President's day storm of 2003 was predicted as not being much several days out, and each day we got closer the forecaset snowfall increased.

The model bias towards developing too many snow storms beyond 7 days is anecdotal. I'll see about analyzing some verification info to determine if the suspicions of many are correct.

Yes, it seems the President's Day storm was pretty unexpected. Does anyone recall if 2003 was a La Nina year?

missy,

2003 was an El Nino year. =(

okay so all hope's lost.

Afton Mountain is 4 miles east of Waynesboro.
It's the northern end of the Blue Ridge Parkway and the southern end of the Skyline Drive.