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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 03/ 5/2008

CommuteCast: Calmer Weather Prevails

By Ian Livingston

Mild Thursday but colder air looms

After a stormy night, today's weather brought comparatively calm conditions to the region. Following the passage of a cold front before sunrise, temperatures have stayed fairly steady throughout the day and have topped out in the mid 50s this afternoon. The commute home will be dry and breezy as temperatures drop back into the 40s across the area.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low and mid 30s for the suburbs and upper 30s in the city for overnight lows.

Tomorrow: Thursday will be mostly sunny and mild, as temperatures reach into the mid and upper 50s across the area. Clouds may increase late in the day, but more so overnight into Friday, as the next weather maker begins to move towards the region.

See Dan's forecast through the weekend.

By Ian Livingston  | March 5, 2008; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: The Cold and Snowy Reversal of March 1960
Next: Forecast: Nice Today, Then Wet and Cooler


Augusta, Are you saying we dont have a chance for snow because of the 50/50 high.

Is it possible the high could diminish?

Is it also possible that the low can track further east?

Posted by: skinsfn | March 5, 2008 4:09 PM | Report abuse

very windy in capitol hill...

Posted by: madison | March 5, 2008 4:09 PM | Report abuse

skinsfn: Not at all, but the chance of significant snow would be much better with a 50/50 low in place. Remember, track and source of cold air is always important for most of our region, even more so in March. Cold air is enhanced with a 50/50 low. It also helps with proper placement of high pressure to our north and northwest.

A lot of possibilities still exist, but at this time the area from Nashville to Cleveland and east to central and western W.Va. seem to be in the favored area for a winter storm. Our most likely time to see snow will be a brief period when the precip. is tapering off as the storm moves off to our northeast.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | March 5, 2008 5:24 PM | Report abuse

See the comment in the previous post for the microscopic (but not technically zero) odds for seeing substantial snow in March.

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | March 5, 2008 5:48 PM | Report abuse

Steve thats really harsh...

Posted by: missy | March 5, 2008 6:51 PM | Report abuse

According to Steve, Winter is over guys.

Let me rephrase my incorrect comment on March storms..

Most of our big coastal storms occur when the NAO levels. NAO is leveling for the remainder of March or even trending negative a bit which gives us a higher probability for snow even in late season.

IM not giving up. It seems many folks are getting tired of snow talk and the mircoscopic chances. GFS shows a couple more possiblites of snow in the next couple weeks.

I cant wait for more Grinch Comments...Trust me I'm getting use to it.

Posted by: VA Santa | March 5, 2008 7:15 PM | Report abuse

Folks, ya know Accuweather blogs are full of good discussions on snow. I dont think they get shafted for keeping the hope alive....:)

Posted by: Anonymous | March 5, 2008 7:19 PM | Report abuse

If you look closer at Steve's post on the prior post, you'll see that all but 2 of those 7 March storms occurred in the first 2 weeks.

Like it or not, the probability is very high that it's over for this year.

Posted by: Ivan | March 5, 2008 7:20 PM | Report abuse

I'll stand with you, Santa...and correct my bad grammar in the previous post "that's" harsh, is what I meant.

Posted by: missy | March 5, 2008 7:23 PM | Report abuse

Ivan, I agree that the chances decrease significantly in March for a snowstorm. However, the NAO is trending negatvie now, this trend usually gives us a colder solution. Also during the leveling phases, many east coast storms tend to develop. Therefore our chances THIS March are better the average.

Also,I realize the GFS is not accurate long range in predicting specific storm tracks..BUT it has been good at predicting general storm development.

GFS showing numerous chances of snow through March 18. I would post all the links but that would piss a lot of folks off.

I dont think we have seen the last of the flakes quite yet this winter. If the NAO were holding positive. I would put a fork in it and agree with Steve and Ivan.....oh yeah cannot forget VAtechBob....)

Posted by: VA | March 5, 2008 7:40 PM | Report abuse

How is the March Superstorm only 6.5 inches? I heard that that storm brought over a foot of snow for most of the area

Posted by: skins fan | March 5, 2008 7:45 PM | Report abuse

that question was directed at Steve.

Posted by: skins fan | March 5, 2008 7:47 PM | Report abuse

Keep the faith Missy!!!!!there is no shame in hope, regardless of our snow drought....:)

Posted by: VA | March 5, 2008 7:48 PM | Report abuse

also why wasn't the march storm in 2005 included in that list? I got 6 inches from that storm here in Potomac

Posted by: skins fan | March 5, 2008 7:49 PM | Report abuse

I feel like people have been saying that the NAO has been trending negative for the past month. Also, I wouldn't put much into the long range gfs at all. All winter it seems as though its shown colder and stormier periods, which usually turn into warm storms followed by cold air. Luckily the storm yesterday didn't leave us with cold air, did give us wind however.
Don't know how many people here listen to it but on WBAL this afternoon there was discussion about the global warming debate, just thought it was interesting and brought back memories of the global warming debates on this board.

Posted by: arnoldkh | March 5, 2008 7:56 PM | Report abuse

Im telling you sligh comment like Steve's give off the Impression to me that Cap Team folks dont like snow jabber on their blogs. We havent had snow all year, whats wrong with discussing it. Even if the chances are small.

Posted by: Anonymous | March 5, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

I will find the NAO index. It has just begun to trend negative around the first of March. In fact, most folks have said it was going to trend negative in March, not Feb. Things havent changed.

Posted by: VA | March 5, 2008 8:01 PM | Report abuse

Ok....the "FIRST" comments are getting about as old as me predicting rain! Capwx team - can we block this idiot?

Posted by: Greg | March 5, 2008 9:08 PM | Report abuse

Stats 4 the last 5 winters.
07-08 +3.4, 4.9" snow. 68 days had temps average or above, 23 below. After Dec 7, temps averaged +3.9, 2.3" snow.
06-07 +1.8, 7.2" snow
05-06 +1.9, 13.6" snow
04-05 +1, 11.6" snow
03-04 -1.6, 12.6" snow
The last 3 yrs Dec has averaged +1.4, 2.5" snow, Jan +6.7, .9" snow & Feb -1.2, 5.2" snow. We have averaged 10" of snow last 5 winters. The warm Jan's have really messed up the snow chances the last 3 winters.

Posted by: VaTechBob. | March 5, 2008 9:11 PM | Report abuse

GFS now showing a decent winter weather opportunity for next Monday-Tuesday. Don't say that there snow hope!

Posted by: mcleaNed | March 5, 2008 9:33 PM | Report abuse

skins fan, The March '93 Super Storm gave 12"+ to the western suburbs. Dulles received 14.4" and near Leesburg was over 20". There were even pockets of 12" east of DC, but National Airport recorded 6.5". I had 13" west of Fairfax, but a long period of sleet mixed with freezing rain put a glaze on the snowcover. I remember my dog could run across the top of the snow without breaking through.

Posted by: Kevin, Captital Weather Gang | March 6, 2008 12:03 AM | Report abuse

This just in from Henry Margusity:

"Blizzard of 2008 - Big Daddy Time Extreme Event"

He loves his job. You have to give him credit for that.

Posted by: mcleaNed | March 6, 2008 2:56 AM | Report abuse

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