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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 03/24/2008

CommuteCast: Mostly Cloudy and Cool

By Ian Livingston

Mostly sunny and warmer Tuesday

Mixed clouds and sun combined with winds from the north and east have kept the area cooler than average today. High temperatures have topped out right around 50 degrees across the region and will not move up much more before dropping back into the 40s this evening. Precipitation has mostly stayed south of the area and this is expected to continue for the commute.

Tonight: Clearing skies will make way for another chilly night across the area. Expect lows to drop into the upper 20s north and west of D.C. while falling into the mid 30s for the city and southeast.

Tomorrow: Tuesday will be mostly sunny and warmer than today as winds shift from out of the north to out of the south. Expect sunshine to dominate the day, with some increase in clouds possible late. Temperatures should rise to the upper 50s for most places, and a few 60 degree readings are possible across the area.

See Jason's forecast for rest of the week and into the weekend.

By Ian Livingston  | March 24, 2008; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Bumpy Transition to Spring Continues


what happened to spring??

Posted by: madison | March 24, 2008 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Model Mavens,
We wouldn't want to rain on anybody's fantasies, but here's a reminder of the fabulous job the models did in forecasting this morning's huge Arctic outbreak over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic five days out. Don't forget to check out the major storm development for tomorrow morning, either. 'Nuff said? (We really do encourage opinions, as long as they're labeled as such; most people have in fact been doing that.)

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | March 24, 2008 4:13 PM | Report abuse

The NWS Hydrometeorlogical Center is calling for about an inch of rain between now and Saturday

Is there a lot of uncertainty with this cold front?

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | March 24, 2008 4:43 PM | Report abuse

Steve, If you are so against model discussion, done encourage it by posting links to it on the website...You are the only one on your team it seems that posts opposition to ANYTHING related to model talk....My post earlier clearly stated the chances were minimal...I was not giving also throw in unprofessional sarcasm to make it worse....we all know Models are inconsistent days is just exciting to see future "don't rain on us idiots fantasy parade "

Good Day

Posted by: Conman | March 24, 2008 6:17 PM | Report abuse

Here, Here Conman!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Greg | March 24, 2008 6:40 PM | Report abuse

Conman: I don't think Steve intended any disrespect with his comment and it's certainly written diplomatically. He's just making the point that the models have a terrible track record out beyond 3 or 4 days. Not one of the major snow storms they've simulated has materialized the entire season.

Frankly, I have no problem if folks post links to the 200+ hour GFS runs. While I put little/no stock in these forecasts, I'll concede they can be entertaining to look at. I would, however, request these kind of comments be posted in response to forecast posts as opposed to non-forecast posts. For example today, I would've preferred the discussion in response to Andrew's post focused on warning dissemination. In other words, in posting comments, stay on topic. You could've posted the GFS run in response to my early AM forecast post. Just because a post isn't at the top, doesn't mean it's dead from a commenting perspective.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | March 24, 2008 6:44 PM | Report abuse

Jason is right: If you want to discuss what's going to happen 3 years from Tuesday, that's fine with us. Just don't expect anyone to take it seriously if there's no scientific basis for it.

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | March 24, 2008 8:13 PM | Report abuse

Jason and/or Steve, I am very interested in Thursday's weather since I will be on the road part of the day. Is it looking like a complete washout?

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | March 24, 2008 8:33 PM | Report abuse ask what what happened to spring? Very simple. A huge East Coast long-wave trough and a major dip in the jet stream all the way to the Gulf Coast has allowed Canadian air to overrun the Eastern half of the country. This air mass, being much colder aloft than at the surface, is quite unstable...note the large cumulus clouds popping up here and there with the cold rain/sleet mix of the past couple of days. The core axis of the trough will lift out to the northeast tomorrow as the surface high moves off the coast, and winds will turn more to the south and southwest. This will allow a warm front and milder air in the West and Southwest to start moving this way...moisture aloft could give us stratus clouds and some rain Wednesday and Thursday.

Posted by: Mike | March 24, 2008 8:46 PM | Report abuse

David-- Thursday now looks to be showery as a stationary front hangs over the area. Not a washout, but occasional bouts of showers. Getting the exact position of stationary fronts is tough though, so confidence is low.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | March 24, 2008 9:02 PM | Report abuse

Jason, thanks for the update on Thursday.

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | March 24, 2008 9:08 PM | Report abuse

I for one am glad you are questioning the endless discussion of models during winter. Not one model prediction has come true this year, and yet some folks acted like it was a 100 percent certainty winter weather was going to happen "next week" and any one questioning them was criticized as a snow hater. They just kept after it run after run all winter, and it all got very tedious after awhile.

Posted by: steve takoma park md | March 24, 2008 9:27 PM | Report abuse

"Not one model prediction has come true this year":
No, that's an overstatement. They are useful up to a point, but it's important to remember what the limits are.

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | March 24, 2008 11:37 PM | Report abuse

Maybe after all the model busts this past winter, people will have learned not 2 put much faith in them more than 3 days out. Everytime I said the models were wrong, some people acted like it was my fault it didn't snow. Looking at long range models can be interesting but also seems to lead 2 alot of hope & wishcasting. I love snow as much as the next guy, but have 2 base 4cast on facts not hope.

Posted by: VaTechBob. | March 24, 2008 11:40 PM | Report abuse

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