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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 03/ 6/2008

CommuteCast: Another Mild Ride

By Ian Livingston

Unsettled Friday through the beginning of the weekend

Abundant sunshine has allowed temperatures to rise near and above seasonal averages area-wide today. As high pressure continues to drift off to our east, the region has seen light southerly winds helping to warm the air. The commute home will be dry and mild with temperatures falling from the 50s back into the upper 40s.

Tonight: Clear skies will slowly cloud up this evening and throughout the night while the next system begins to affect the region. By sunrise the area will be under mostly cloudy and lowering skies. Increasing clouds will keep temperatures from falling too much overnight, but lows are still expected to fall into the mid 30s in the normally colder suburbs, and to around 40 degrees in the city.

Tomorrow: Friday will start off mostly cloudy and dry. Rain chances will increase by late morning and periodic rain will be likely by afternoon. High temperatures right around 50 degrees will be fairly uniform across the area.

Rain chances are expected to last through the night on Friday and into Saturday as multiple low pressure systems pass by the area bringing more soaking rains.

See Josh's forecast through the weekend.

By Ian Livingston  | March 6, 2008; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Rainy and Stormy Through Saturday


I've dried out my rain gage for round two. Bring it on!

Posted by: Bikerjohn | March 6, 2008 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Big question: How long will this soaking rain drag into Saturday???

If it goes on beyond noon, it impacts on my weekend to a degree. However the psychological "hit" from the conversion to Daylight Time is a bigger impact which I really won't feel until 5:30 AM Monday. I really don't like having to put up with 7 AM darkness at this time of year! Boy, I'd love to know how THAT supposedly "SAVES" energy!!!

Posted by: El Bombo | March 6, 2008 4:27 PM | Report abuse

What is AccuWx's Henry "Big Daddy!" Margusity smoking now? He has our immediate area and generally the Mid-Atlantic region outlined for a "threat of significant wind damage and a few tornadoes" in the Friday/Saturday RAINstorm. Neither the CapWxGang NOR the NWS team have mentioned *anything* about this. I swear, Margusity's brand of "forecasting" is starting to border on reckless and irresponsible -- of course, it's great for driving up web page hits. (It's also analogous to some of those "Tornado Watch, details at 11!" promos run mid-evening the other night on local stations...)

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | March 6, 2008 4:57 PM | Report abuse

new models coming out now seem to indicate a SE trend. the ohio river valley from Huntington WV to Parkersburg WV could get hit hard if these new models are correct. it has been a long time since this area has seen a decent snowstorm.

the more SE it goes, the lesser the chances are for the DC area to recieve severe weather

Posted by: jf | March 6, 2008 5:07 PM | Report abuse

Wow check out the record low for this date...1960 at 19 degrees and then the VERY NEXT YEAR the record high of 81.

Posted by: missy | March 6, 2008 5:14 PM | Report abuse

and did I mention how said to see not even one tiny flake on the At A Glance? *sigh*

Posted by: missy | March 6, 2008 5:14 PM | Report abuse

The powers of horrible VA weather win out again.

Posted by: Period | March 6, 2008 5:56 PM | Report abuse

To all the depressed snowlovers....a glimmer of possibility may still lie on 3/20...GFS has been holding a southern storm. Right now it looks like s southern slider. But very close call as it is pretty far away I'm only posting this becasuse the models have held this sorm for the past 5 days. Also, GFS has been pretty good at predicting "storm development"....

Dont give up hope.even if it is a long shot.

I expect to hear the regular outrageous comments from the Tech Bandwagon

Bandwagon Comments:

1.) March is here, are you crazy
2.) Give it up...
3.) Temps are too warm as they have been
4.) Are you crazy to look at GFS that far out. Those models are never reliable
5.) It just wont happen.
6.) Our chances in March are "microscopic to none" so, IT WONT HAPPEN.
7.) I hate model readers
8.) Winter is over folks...
9.) Dont talk about cold, bring on the warm weather


If I missed any comments, Im sure you can remind me so I can add them to my blacklist.,

I'm not putting away my winter boots till March is over folks.

Posted by: VA | March 6, 2008 6:01 PM | Report abuse

Only 4 or 5 days ago people were still talking about how the models were close to giving us a decent shot at snow. Yet, as it has done all winter, the models trended to a warmer solution and we are stuck with much needed rain. I don't even want to put myself through any more waiting/wishing like looking towards 3/20. Winter 07-08 is cooked and done. Since all we are going to see is rain until next winter, atleast give us some bareable temps to go along with it!

Posted by: Will from Fairfax | March 6, 2008 6:44 PM | Report abuse

VA: Winter 07-08 is cooked and done. Add that one to your list, per the post by Will from Fairfax, lmao.

I'm still hoping for snow, but I'm not counting on it anymore. I'm shifting from snowlover to thunderstormlover and gloomyday lover mode. Humph.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | March 6, 2008 6:52 PM | Report abuse

for what it is worth, I've known many first-weekends in May that have been *nippy* over the years...

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | March 6, 2008 7:58 PM | Report abuse

I can't speak for CAPWX or NWS, but don't be too anxious to critcize HM.

The folks at the SPC from Norman,OK, have the following thoughts: 08 12Z -09 12Z, east NC NWD into Delmarva. "A narrow warm sector will be located across the region during the morning before FROPA. Shear will be extremely strong and supportive of super cells.... and possibly even an isolated wind/gust Tornado."

Posted by: Augusta Jim | March 6, 2008 8:10 PM | Report abuse

excellent reminder camden, last year it SNOWED on Easter, {early april} and i recall a late may frost that absolutely fried the lilacs.

Posted by: weathergrrl | March 6, 2008 8:58 PM | Report abuse

The 12Z GFS runs have been holding on to a storm the past month for January 18, 2009! A major Noreaster! One can only hope.

Posted by: Greg | March 6, 2008 9:12 PM | Report abuse

Can we stop it with the model watching already?

"GFS shows a monster snow storm for July 4th!"

Posted by: TJ | March 6, 2008 9:23 PM | Report abuse

Augusta, you forgot the part where SPC says the severe risk is very low overall due to widespread precipitation -- which generally stabilizes the atmosphere. Any of these strong low pressures that manage to go to cut just to our northwest will be possible severe makers this spring I would guess and if tracks we've seen continue, tornadoes might be a higher threat than normal this spring as well. This storm seems to be trying to go against seasonal trend last 24 hours anyway and it's trended far enough east on most models to make me believe severe not a risk in this area for Sat.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | March 6, 2008 9:56 PM | Report abuse

You know, it's really funny watching everyone bicker back and forth about the models.

Let the snow lovers have a little hope, okay? I suppose the people that call us "model huggers" are the same people that rip the wings off butterflies and scream "SANTA IS FAKE!!!" at the mall on Christmas Eve, right? I know that's a little extreme, but still. :)

I know that we probably won't see anything but rain tomorrow, but it's fun to wish. You guys have March April May June July August September October and a good half of November. We get December, January and February to hope for snow before the chances fall off a cliff.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | March 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, these are our very last dreamcasts before a crazy long, hot season of code orange and red. Be nice.

Posted by: missy | March 6, 2008 10:35 PM | Report abuse

Ian, I did not know that about "wide spread precip stablizing the atmosphere." After three meteorology courses at Arizona State, and decades of being interested in weather, I learned something new! Thanks for that!

Posted by: Kalorama Park | March 6, 2008 10:46 PM | Report abuse

There are five fire trucks and a huge plume of smoke three houses to my left. This is insane.

Posted by: mcleaNed | March 7, 2008 3:39 AM | Report abuse

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