Forecast: Heavy Rain Likely Tonight
Flood Watch in effect through Wednesday morning
After officially reaching 70 yesterday, we have another chance to do it today, albeit without the sunny skies. A powerful cold front accompanied by heavy rain and possible thunderstorms will move through tonight and usher in an air mass that is a little more seasonable for early March. But first we have to get through this evening which may be volatile. Stay tuned for updates on this situation throughout the day.
Very mild, heavy rain late. Upper 60s. We will start out the day cloudy, but mostly dry. Strong flow from the south ahead of an approaching cold front and associated storm system will allow temperatures once again to reach the upper 60s. We may see an isolated shower or two (30% chance) during the day, but the main act will hold off until later.
As we approach early evening, heavier rain will move into the western suburbs and make its way eastward. Some of the rain will be in the form of thunderstorms along with gusty winds. With a cold, hard ground, flooding of creeks and streams is possible due to excessive water runoff. The most likely time frame for heavier rain and thunderstorms is between 6pm and 2am.
Overnight, rain will taper in the early morning hours and skies will remain cloudy with lows only dipping to the low 50s.
TOMORROW
Clearing, cooler. Mid 50s. After some early clouds, skies will become sunny in the afternoon on Wednesday, though accompanied by gusty westerly winds. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 50s. Overnight it will be partly cloudy and much colder with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend ...
THURSDAY
Mix of sun and clouds, seasonable. 50-55. Thursday will be partly sunny and typical of early March. Look for afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s, which should feel quite pleasant under an increasingly high sun. Overnight clouds will be on the increase as a developing storm system well to our southwest will bring a chance of some light rain or maybe a snow shower. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s.
A LOOK AHEAD
We are keeping our eye on a storm system that will affect the DC region on Friday and early Saturday. Right now it looks like the track of the system will be far enough inland for the entire region to experiece cold rain and temperatures in the 40s, with any snow relegated to the mountains. However, it bears watching this week as changes in the track would have important implications for the forecast. Once the storm exits early Saturday, a more wintry air mass will settle in for the rest of the weekend with highs in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday and chilly lows in the 20s.
By Matt Ross |
March 4, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Forecasts
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Next: In Focus: This Evening's Storm Threat
Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | March 4, 2008 6:31 AM
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Yeah, I blame you all for it not being colder. Would it kill you to actually use the weather machine once in a while? Seriously. This weather is absurd. What's the use of having a Capital Weather Gang if you don't occasionally lay a smackdown on the weather itself?
Posted by: Lindemann | March 4, 2008 6:53 AM
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Even I -- he who keeps the eternal watch for snow in this cruddy climate -- am ready to admit it. Let's stick a fork in it...winter 2007/2008 is decidedly DONE.
Posted by: VAStateOfMind | March 4, 2008 7:54 AM
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Folks, its March. The average high is 50. We are nowhere near any records. Winter is just plain over.
Posted by: Southside FFX | March 4, 2008 8:40 AM
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do any of the other models (besides GFS) forecast snow this weekend. thanks.
Posted by: Anonymous | March 4, 2008 9:00 AM
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Winer over? Not yet, folks. We have a decent snow chance this weekend.
Posted by: mcleaNed | March 4, 2008 9:06 AM
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The latest (GFS, GEM, EURO) models pretty much all indicate mostly rain for Fri/Sat, but as the track of the storm could change...not a done deal. Given the seasonal trend though, I would not hold out much hope for snow.
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | March 4, 2008 9:08 AM
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Capital Team or whomever can answer this question. What exactly is the Southeast Ridge and why has it thrown a wrench into all of our potential snow storms? This weekend storm is now headed West due to the Ridge, right? Will it ever go away?
Posted by: HEELS | March 4, 2008 9:20 AM
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Why this FLOOD WATCH for Metro D.C.???
Nastiest thing about this system is that ONCE AGAIN it's hitting on my dance night!!! But it seems to be tracking WEST of us! I bet we see about a third to half-inch in one or two sharp cold-frontal-passage showers or a thundershower. Hardly the rain needed for a full-scale flood watch! Why is everyone acting like this could be a three-inch deluge???
As I have been maintaining ever since this thing showed up on the models, the worst feature about it is that it's timed for smack dab in the middle of my Clarendon Ballroom swing dance evening! Actually Sue Palka seems to think that the main rain will occur between 9 PM and 3 or 4 AM. Translation: I'll probably be able to get to my dance OK but might just run into a downpour on the way back home at 10:45. The pattern seems to be conforming to form: it never rains here except when I have a dance or other outing on my schedule! For future reference my next dance dates are next Tuesday, Mar. 11 and Friday, Mar. 14. Now just watch the model guidance try to bring in a couple of HUGE rain systems for those two dates!!!
Posted by: El Bombo | March 4, 2008 9:40 AM
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Heels....The SE ridge typically sits near Bermuda and the clockwise rotation around the high pressure center pumps warm air in from the south/southeast.....Unfortunately it will probably go away just in time for some April coastals that will bring 40s/50s and rain....
Posted by: Matt, Capital Weather Gang | March 4, 2008 2:26 PM
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The comments to this entry are closed.
MATT...I don't like seeing "cold rain" on the forecast. It figures. I'm totally moving to Canada or somewhere COLD.
It's 60.3 here in lake ridge right now at 630AM. That's sickening. Oh well. I'm sure there will be one or two snide comments to my sadness to winter not being here that could give me a nice laugh... ;)