Forecast: A Week Later, Weather Starts Again

Dry today and tomorrow; then repeat rain performance

It's not unusual for weather patterns to every once in a while repeat themselves from one week to the next. But in this case, the forecast for tomorrow through the weekend is incredibly identical to the forecast I made this time last week, with dry weather and highs in the 50s today and tomorrow, an increasing chance of rain on Friday, more rain on Saturday, then clearing and windy on Sunday. In fact, the predicted weather is so similar that I feel like I'm plagiarizing my forecast from a week ago.

TODAY

Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. Mid 50s. From morning lows in the mid to upper 30s, temperatures will climb toward highs in the mid 50s as some early-morning clouds quickly give way to mostly sunny skies. A 15-20 mph breeze, with gusts to around 25 mph, should pick up out of the northwest by late morning after a weak front passes by. Overnight, mostly clear with winds becoming calm and lows in the low to mid 30s.

TOMORROW

Increasing clouds. Afternoon breeze. Mid to upper 50s. We should start off with at least some sun, but probably increasing clouds as the day progresses. An increasing afternoon breeze from the south should warm temperatures to highs in the mid to upper 50s. Then, partly to mostly cloudy with a small chance of an evening or overnight shower and lows not very low -- in the low to mid 40s.

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend.

FRIDAY

Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. 60s. The first of two, possibly three low-pressure systems will make a run at us on Friday, delivering a slight chance (25%) of a shower in the morning, and a better chance (50%) of showers in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures are likely to reach at least the low 60s, and could climb a few degrees higher with a strong enough breeze from the south.

Overnight, we'll probably see a lull in precipitation chances, before a more potent area of low pressure -- and more solid area of rain -- approaches toward morning. Lows in the low to mid 40s.

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday has the potential to provide a soaking rain, with periods of moderate to heavy rain a good possibility and temperatures in the 40s to near 50. The timing is a bit uncertain as to whether the rain would move in during the morning or hold off toward midday. A third area of low pressure may skirt to our south Saturday evening and keep the rain going into the first part of Saturday night.

Eventually, rain should come to an end overnight, maybe mixing with some snowflakes before doing so. As the storm departs, overnight winds could become quite gusty out of the northwest as lows drop to the low to mid 30s.

Clearing skies, cold and more gusty winds on Sunday with highs in the 40s. Then, it's looking clear and rather cold Sunday night with diminishing winds and lows in the mid 20s in the burbs to near 30 downtown.

By Dan Stillman |  March 12, 2008; 5:00 AM ET Forecasts
Previous: CommuteCast: Seasonal Weather Conditions | Next: D.C. March Heat Waves: The Big Four

Comments

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Dan, what are the predicted rainfall amounts for the weekend? I am in Stafford, VA. Thanks!

Posted by: David A | March 12, 2008 5:14 AM
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With the GFS and ECMWF tracking the system to our south Sat. and Sat. night, we can look forward to a cold rain that may change to snow, Sat. eve. and overnight, especially west and high elevations.
QP amounts should vary widely from north to south, but a general .50-1.00" should be in the ballpark.

This will only be the beginning, of what will probably be a colder than normal late March and early April.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | March 12, 2008 8:40 AM
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Put the winter coat away for the season last night. Love these cool, crisp mornings followed by the strong March sun warming up the afternoons.

Posted by: Ivan | March 12, 2008 9:21 AM
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Canadian lightning data this morning: Only a few isolated strikes in the Atlantic off FL, GA, SC.

I have a big question too about how much rain we'll get Saturday and will it be a continual washout? Frankly I'd prefer something more like last Saturday, with dry periods when I can get out & run my errands without too much interference from rain & wind.

Last night's dance was dry and well-attended. My big issue for Friday evening seems to involve the possible thunderstorm threat between 7 and 8:30 PM. I'd rather NOT have lightning around when trying to get to the dance. Otherwise my big rain issue hits me Saturday.

Posted by: El Bombo | March 12, 2008 10:17 AM
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David A -- A half-inch is certainly doable, with an inch not out of the question. However, the models currently put us toward the northern fringe of the heaviest precipitation, which means uncertainty is quite high (i.e., a slight shift southward in the storm track could greatly reduce our amounts).

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | March 12, 2008 10:17 AM
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Dear Weather Gods,

Please bring on spring here into the Washington D.C. area. We like the rain but we are sick of the cold. After a winter with little snow cut us a break and bring on the warmth.

Thanks !

Posted by: Jenn in Reston | March 12, 2008 11:25 AM
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One sad fact about moving to the Post is that the 'comfortable' feel of the old CapWx blog is gone and in short time, I fear negative comments will drive away the 'regulars' and all that will be left will be another stale web page at washingtonpost.com.

Posted by: Tim in Kalorama | March 12, 2008 11:46 AM
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Hey El Bombo can you do us favor? Enough all ready about how your dance card is so impacted by the weather. For crying out loud is it that hard to get to a dance? Get an umbrella or a rain suit to put over your dress and just deal with it like the rest of us.

Posted by: Enough-O | March 12, 2008 12:32 PM
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I too miss the comfortable feel of the old site. I enjoy El Bombo's take on the weather and hope that those who don't will avoid the comments section. I'd much rather read one of El Bombo's comments than a mean-spirited rant.

Posted by: Long time reader | March 12, 2008 1:26 PM
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Dan, thank you for your reply....

Posted by: David A | March 12, 2008 1:33 PM
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Waaaaaa the dance is ruined!!! RAIN!!!!!!!
Nooooooo! Boooohooo!!! Jesus christ, are your dances outside or something?

Posted by: Whine-O | March 12, 2008 2:16 PM
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Hey mean-O, stop with the criticism.

Posted by: missy | March 12, 2008 2:24 PM
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You know, if you stress over something too much, it's not too god for your heart. So Enough-O and Whine-o, do yourselves a favor and just forget about El Bombo's dances.

Posted by: Yellow kid | March 12, 2008 3:30 PM
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Wow, take a chill pill, people. (or snowlover's pill?)

Those of you who think "OMG, so-and-so complained about the weather with respect to their particular life situation, it must be a HUGE deal", maybe you should think twice before posting. You have no idea from a little comment with minimal information if it's a huge deal or just a slight inconvenience.

Maybe it's just kind of a little bit of a pain, maybe it's having to wait for the bus for 20 minutes in pouring rain (with umbrella + trenchcoat, you can still get pretty soaked). Maybe you're making fun of someone with a disability, like poor sight that would make traveling in bad weather that much worse. You have no idea. Neither do I. Stop and think how little information you have and how many assumptions you are making on a few sentences you happen to read.

And then please realize if it's that big of an issue that you find you have to yell at someone online, maybe you should look at stress management.

Posted by: DM - a newbie | March 12, 2008 4:23 PM
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Jeez folks, can't we all just get along? Regulars, newcomers alike are all welcome. Mean-spirited comments can be easily ignored. Meanwhile, we can hopefully add over time to our loyal stable of regulars.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | March 12, 2008 4:28 PM
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Thank you Dan.

Posted by: Yellow kid | March 12, 2008 4:31 PM
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Call me odd, but I enjoy El Bombo's posts. I guess I get a kick out of someone being so weather-involved. Of course, on this site we're all weather-involved, but El B. seems downright passionate about it, esp rain. Now for me, it's wind. I mentioned once that I live in a tall house on a tall hill in the countryside near Harpers Ferry. I've become obsessed with the wind! Just ask my neighbors.... :)

Posted by: tinkerbelle | March 12, 2008 5:42 PM
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This winter has been a true disappointment. A majority of Washingtonians would love to see a huge snow storm before April 15th... if the NAO can maintain a negative trend... we may get our wish around Easter.

Posted by: Tim | March 12, 2008 10:55 PM
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