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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 03/11/2008

My Weather: Get a Custom Forecast

By Jason Samenow

Luke and Sandra's September wedding outlook

Do you have a big event coming up in your life or that you're planning for which you need to know the most likely weather scenario and the range of possibilities? The event could be a wedding, reunion, Bar Mitzvah, golf outing, company picnic, etc. Email us and we'll consider doing a custom weather assessment for you and your event right here on the Capital Weather Gang blog!

In your email, indicate why the weather plays a major role in your event, talk about the event's significance, and if possible, include a photo or two. Indicate whether you're looking for a general outlook which gives the range of possible weather outcomes well in advance (weeks/months) or a detailed forecast right before (within three to five days of) your event. The earlier you submit your request, the better.

Here's an example of what we can do...

kaloroma.jpg
Sandra Singh (left) and Luke Statz (right). Luke resides in Kalorama Park and is a consultant for BearingPoint. Sandra lives in New York City and is a brand manager for Calvin Klein fragrances. Photo courtesy Luke Statz.

Four years ago while out in Adams Morgan, Luke Statz met Sandra Singh. The two local natives, mingling with their own group of friends, spotted one another from across the restaurant. Luke, being shy, didn't pay Sandra much attention until realizing they had friends in common. They talked that night and Luke asked Sandra out a few days later. They've been together ever since and will tie the knot September 13, 2008.

Weather plays big into this couple's wedding plans. They've reserved the courtyard at a local hotel for the cocktail reception and plan to drive from the church to the reception on Luke's Vespa scooter. They're hoping for low 80s with low humidity, partial cloud cover, and a light breeze. Luke says: "We've got quite a few people coming in from other parts of the country, as well as western Europe, so we want our guests to enjoy DC weather at its best!"

So what are the chances the weather will cooperate for this happy couple?

The good news is that mid-September is characteristically a wonderful time of year in Washington. The average high on September 13 is 80 and the average low is a comfortable 63. Average rainfall for the date is 0.13", but in 78% of the days since 1929, no measurable rain has fallen.

So the averages look great, but what about the extremes?

The hottest temperature on record for the date is 93 (since 1929), which isn't that hot. And the record low of 49 isn't that cold. You would be hard pressed to find another time of year in Washington with such mild extreme temperatures and little variability.

Rainfall for the date, however, is quite variable. While most days historically have been dry, when it rains, it tends to pour. Nine out of the 17 days that have received measurable rain got over 0.5". The wettest day occurred in 1944 when the Great Atlantic Hurricane generated a 2.3" deluge.

Clearly, the worst case scenario for this couple would be to be impacted by a tropical system. Fortunately, the odds of that happening are low (around 5%) and the odds of the best case scenario of being comfortably warm and dry are quite high (around 75%).

The bottom line: this couple picked an excellent time of the year to get married from a climatological perspective. Of course, there's the saying: "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get." Luke and Sandra might consider having a town car or limo on reserve. That Vespa won't do a lot of good if Hurricane Gustav comes along...


By Jason Samenow  | March 11, 2008; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  My Weather  
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Next: CommuteCast: Seasonal Weather Conditions

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