My Weather: The Bind by the Bay
April 5 Wedding in St. Michaels, Md.
A crippling storm brought Katie Swanson and Phil Lepanto closer together, but the couple would prefer peace from the heavens when they join in matrimony along the Chesapeake Bay in just a few weeks.
The couple met at a neighborhood bar in Mt. Pleasant called the Bella Roma (it's now called Tonic) on Valentine's night in 2003. They got to talking and Katie gave Phil her number. Phil called her later that Saturday and invited her to come over to watch the Simpson's 300th episode airing the next day, which just happened to coincide with the Blizzard of 2003.
With the snow starting to pile up, Katie called Sunday to say she would still come over, but would need a ride. Phil brought her over.
By the time the snow ended and the couple had gotten know each other a little better, it was 11 p.m and a foot and a half of snow was on the ground. Phil tried to drive her home, but his car didn't have the ground clearance over the freshly fallen snow to make it more than a couple feet down the alley. Katie stayed over on the couch and Phil walked her home the next day. They've been together ever since and will marry April 5.
The couple's rehearsal dinner location is open air with only a roof and their preferred wedding location, under the Hooper Strait Lighthouse, is also partially exposed to the elements.
The couple wants to avoid strong winds, low temperatures and/or rain. What are the chances mother nature will deliver?
Although average high temperatures in the region* are in the comfortable low 60s in early April, just 27 out of 77 days on April 5 (their wedding day) since 1930 have exceeded 60 degrees and recorded less than 0.10" of rain. That's just a 0.360 batting average for days that are both mild (if we call anything at or above 60 mild) and dry. So most of the time it's been wet and/or cool. Snow has even been observed on four days. Wind data isn't available, but given St. Michaels' location on the Bay, it wouldn't make the picture any rosier.
How cold can it get? The coldest day occurred in 1940 when the high was only 40, the low 30 and a trace of snow fell.
On the plus side, it can be pleasantly warm and fortunately, not hot. The record high of 83 was set in 1942. And 11 out 77 days have hit 70 or higher so there's a fighting chance it will be quite mild.
Rainfall of more than 0.10" has fallen on 17% of days. The wettest day occurred in 1957, when 1.14" fell.
The good news for this couple is that no more than 0.08" of rain has fallen in a single day on April 5 in the last 18 years, so maybe the dry streak will continue. Perhaps Katie and Phil filled their romantic weather quota for inclement conditions on their first date and the Hooper Strait Lighthouse will signal all-clear on April 5, 2008...
Do you have a big event coming up in your life or that you're planning for which you need to know the most likely weather scenario and the range of possibilities? The event could be a wedding, reunion, Bar Mitzvah, golf outing, company picnic, etc. Email us and we'll consider doing a custom weather assessment for you and your event right here on the Capital Weather Gang blog!
In your email, indicate why the weather plays a major role in your event, talk about the event's significance, and if possible, include a photo or two. Indicate whether you're looking for a general outlook which gives the range of possible weather outcomes well in advance (weeks/months) or a detailed forecast right before (within three to five days of) your event. The earlier you submit your request, the better.
*Climatological data used for this analysis originates from Reagan National Airport (DCA), the closest location to St. Michaels west of the Bay with long-term records. Like St. Michaels, DCA is on a body of water and is about at the same latitude.
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