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Posted at 3:30 PM ET, 04/ 4/2008

CommuteCast: Awaiting Tonight's Deluge

By Capital Weather Gang

Iffy Saturday rain chances

Latest mid-Atlantic radar loop. Courtesy National Weather Service. Click here to expand.

A cool and cloudy start to the day has given way to brightening skies, which have helped warm temperatures to near 60 through mid-afternoon. Sprinkles and light showers are possible during the commute, but the next dose of potentially heavy rain should hold off until later tonight. Temperatures may rise a few more degrees during the late afternoon due to a push of warm air from the south.

Tonight: A 40% chance of a sprinkles and light showers early. But the main event probably won't arrive until around 10 p.m. or later. That's when rain, heavy at times, is likely, with a small chance (25%) of thunderstorms. Overnight rainfall amounts of .5"-.75" are probable for the metro area, with the potential for 1" or more mainly south and east of D.C. Rain will probably taper in the pre-dawn hours with lows in the mid 50s.

Tomorrow: The metro area will be on the northwestern fringe of a band of rain. Thus, precipitation chances will depend on your location. If you live south and east of the Beltway, there's a good chance (60%) of at least some rain -- particularly during the morning and then again in the evening. Inside the Beltway, there is a 50/50 chance of some showers or a period of rain, but probably not a washout. North and west of the Beltway, rain chances are 40% or less. Highs should be near 60 under mostly cloudy skies, though there could be some afternoon brightening especially north and west.

Some rain may continue into Saturday night, especially inside the beltway and to the southeast, and it may take until some time Sunday morning for clearing to occur throughout the area.

See Camden's forecast for Sunday into next week. See UnitedCast for the forecast for D.C. United's first home game, as well as Matt's weekend events forecast.

By Capital Weather Gang  | April 4, 2008; 3:30 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Weekend Events: Cherry Blossom Fun, With a Kick
Next: Forecast: Relentness Rawness


Cherry Blossoms are quickly flying off the trees today so far... Still thick overall cover, but almost like it was snowing at times around 3:30 with all the petals in the air.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | April 4, 2008 4:52 PM | Report abuse

So it almost seems as if our chances of a significant rain will once again be crushed. I've seen the estimates for tonight/tomorrow go from 2 inches to 1 - 2, to 1, to .5 - 1, to a "maybe" .5 inch. What's up with this?

Posted by: Period | April 4, 2008 5:28 PM | Report abuse

So the little white dots I see on Sat. and Sun. weather icons means falling cherry blossoms?

(or as been previously posted, garbled data from the NWS?)

Posted by: DM | April 4, 2008 5:32 PM | Report abuse

DM -- Yep ... bad NWS data. Should be fixed now. And they promise they're working on a solution to the problem.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | April 4, 2008 5:36 PM | Report abuse

Topper said "big changes" and followed it by saying no real deluge tonight and only spotty chances saturday and changed sunday to mostly cloudy, rainy and cool about polar opposite to what I've seen elsewhere (i havent looked at 18 model suite yet) C-Dub Gang, any word?

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | April 4, 2008 5:47 PM | Report abuse

Once again, the D.C. weather is an amazing disappointment.

Posted by: Peroid | April 4, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

Now down to 'maybe' 1/4 of an inch?

Do you think that we will see any rain whatsoever tonite?

Posted by: Period | April 4, 2008 9:11 PM | Report abuse

The rain is just evaporating. This is truly amazing, and yet so typical.

Posted by: Period | April 4, 2008 9:20 PM | Report abuse

It appears that all the forecasts of heavy rain tonight, including Cap. Wx. Gang, are going to fall short of expectations.

The strong convection that popped over N. Georgia late afternoon, is robbing the stream of moisture and energy, therefore the main rain area will scoot to our south.

Our best chance of significant rain will likely be late Sat. and Sat. night, from another and the last wave, unless that also fails for any of many reasons.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | April 4, 2008 9:58 PM | Report abuse

And I am sure that it will fail.

Posted by: Period | April 4, 2008 10:04 PM | Report abuse

I agree with Augusta Jim... it doesn't look like we'll get much rain tonight here in Loudoun. Still holding out for the Sat. and Sat. night chances.

Posted by: Model Monkey | April 4, 2008 10:08 PM | Report abuse

Augusta: You may well be right. Very difficult forecast period at the moment.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | April 4, 2008 10:41 PM | Report abuse

Seems like the Nationals canceled tonight's stadium open house event for nothing. Hopefully they're not as reactionary tomorrow - I'm looking forward to actually checking out the new ballpark!

Posted by: Mark | April 4, 2008 11:05 PM | Report abuse

Guess what? It didn't rain.

Posted by: Jay | April 5, 2008 9:37 AM | Report abuse

So I'm trying to go see these cherry blossoms.

If I go see them around 6:30 today, will it be raining by the time I get there?

The forecast is changing so much that I don't know if we're saying that the rain is going to fall overnight, or never, or in an hour.

Posted by: Laura in NWDC | April 5, 2008 1:02 PM | Report abuse

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