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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 04/ 6/2008

Forecast: Rawness, For Real

By Jason Samenow

Given the forecast for cloudy and cool conditions yesterday (note: our forecast did not call for rain), I think everyone was surprised by how pleasant it turned out to be. While the raw factor was missing in action yesterday, in means business today with cool and dreary conditions more certain. Not until Tuesday afternoon or even Wednesday, will we probably enjoy some sunshine and mild temperatures.

TODAY

Morning rain, cloudy afternoon. 50-55. A little light rain is likely to linger this morning, tapering off from west to east before noon. However, skies will remain overcast during the afternoon with some patchy drizzle possible as damp northeast flow settles in. Temperatures will remain steady in the low 50s much of the day.

Overnight it will stay overcast, with a chance of drizzle. Low temperatures should be in the mid 40s.

Keep reading for the forecast into early next week.

MONDAY

Clammy and cool. 52-56. Murky flow from the east will persist. This means more overcast and areas of drizzle, especially early. By afternoon, skies may brighten a bit--particularly west, with temperatures reaching the mid 50s.

Mostly cloudy overnight, with lows 45-50.

A LOOK AHEAD

Some forecasts are calling for partly sunny skies Tuesday, but I'm not so sure about that. Easterly flow may well continue with more overcast skies, drizzle (especially in the morning) and cool temperatures in the 50s.

Perhaps by Wednesday, the sun may emerge for a time, helping to lift temperatures into the 60s before a front brings a chance of showers at night.

By Jason Samenow  | April 6, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

.52 rain during the past 16 hrs., brings my total to 1.33" for the past several days. This is the best soaking rain in quite a while!

A chilly 45 degrees at 11:45 with drizzle and a light northeast breeze at 3-6 mph.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | April 6, 2008 11:51 AM | Report abuse

It's funny how all the mets said that Sunday would be the best day that we've had in a while.

Anyway, does anyone have rainfall totals for the Arlington/Falls Church area?

Posted by: Period | April 6, 2008 12:00 PM | Report abuse

Period -- Yep, everyone pretty much blew the Sunday forecast until late Friday/early Saturday. Question is, given the data, could we/anyone else have done a better job? At midweek the models were showing bright sunshine and the front well to the south and east. So the thinking was, even if the front moves off more slowly than expected, which we know commonly happens this time of year, there was enough margin for error that we'd still be in the sun. Obviously, the error was large enough that this was not the case.

I think the best we could've done was acknowledge that fronts move notoriously slower than expected this time of year, and recognize that the models don't always catch on right away to the development of low pressure along a front, and thus highlight that forecast confidence is on the medium to low side. Of course, this is all easy to say in hindsight.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | April 6, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

I really think this new computer system in use for years has royally screwed up forecasting for good. I remember when forecasts used to be a lot more spot on. Meanwhile, as the years go by, forecasts are getting worse and worse.

Even 36 Hour Forecasts which call for rain for instance, end up being so off, we end up having sun with not a single cloud in the sky. A new computer program needs to be created, along with an added re-focus of less reliance on computing systems, and more on old skills and analyzation techniques. (BTW, the latter goes for ALL job fields in general, not simply Meteorology).

Hey, I'm not knocking you CW folks, I'm simply stating some views of Modern Meteorology in general.

Posted by: Mr. Freeze | April 7, 2008 12:29 AM | Report abuse

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