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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 04/11/2008

Forecast: Spring-like, Thunder Even?

By Camden Walker

Turning cooler by Sunday

WeatherCamOver the next couple of days, you may see and feel spring in the air. It will be slightly muggy at times, thunder may rumble with passing showers, and temperatures will be way up there! After a cold front passes Saturday, Sunday should be much cooler.

TODAY

PM T-showers? Warm 70s. Your wake-up could look murky (overcast, 30% chance of drizzle or fog) but some sun could emerge through the clouds, especially in the afternoon. Temperatures may start in the upper 50s, but southerly winds will help pump-up afternoon temperatures into the 70s. Sunny spots, south of the city, may well touch the 80-degree mark for the first time this season! Be advised that during afternoon rush hour, some thundershowers could begin to pop over the region.

Into the evening & overnight hours, a greater chance of rain and possible thunder move in. Most of it should be showery in nature, but a few spots with heavier rain cannot be ruled out. Low temperatures will only dip into the 60s. Notice a tinge of mugginess to the air?

TOMORROW

60% chance of showers. Late clearing. Low 70s. Occasional showers are likely through the early afternoon. The Cherry Blossom parade starting at 10 a.m. may be a bit wet. Take that umbrella! By mid afternoon, most rain should taper off.

After dinnertime, skies will begin clearing and drier breezes from the northwest will usher cooler temperatures into the metro area. Lows from 43-48 degrees can be expected by dawn.

Keep reading for the forecast through early next week. Cooler? Cloudier? Also: See my NatCast for tonight's game, and check back later this morning for chief meteorologist Jason Samenow's report from the 2008 Bahamas Weather Conference.

Octagon Crab Apple Tree
Outside the Octagon yesterday, a tree fully blossoms in response to finally seeing sunshine. By Capital Weather Gang's A. Camden Walker.

SUNDAY

Mostly cloudy, cooler. Upper 50s. Much cooler air will arrive on northwesterly breezes. We'll have some sunshine but an approaching upper-level low-pressure system will likely generate quite a bit of cloud cover by afternoon.

Overnight, clouds. There is a moderate chance (40%) of scattered showers as well. Temperatures will fall down to near 40.

A LOOK AHEAD

Intermittent showers continue into Monday along with a northerly breeze. It will be a fairly cool day, with highs in the mid 50s. Confidence: Low-medium

On Tuesday, some more sunshine is possible but it will remain cool, with highs just shy of 60. Confidence: Medium

By Camden Walker  | April 11, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: NatCast: Pleasant Temps, Threatening Sky?

Comments

I sooo took my time walking to work this morning. amazing day so far... exhilarating almost!

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | April 11, 2008 9:51 AM | Report abuse

How much rain do you expect through mid-day Saturday?

Posted by: Barry | April 11, 2008 10:01 AM | Report abuse

Why such low confidence on tomorrows forecast?

Posted by: Christina | April 11, 2008 10:11 AM | Report abuse

Barry: There could be a half-inch of rain if a thundershower passes near or directly over your area... let's suppose you are "lucky" to get two downpours tonight and tomorrow... that could add up to an inch.

Christina: Confidence is low because of position, speed of motion, and rain intensity, and percent chance of... thundershowers. The front is moving through the region tomorrow. What if it stalls? that would equal more rain. If it moves through earlier? Less chance of thunder at all. Not to mention the very nature of a thunderstorm is random and globular in nature; a small, finite area will see moderate rain. But 2 miles away, zero rain may fall. Thanks to Chaos Theory in weather models. it is difficult to say which exact neighborhoods will see rain, and WHEN they will receive rain. The summer will continue to feature this challenge. Weather models just don't have the highest of resolution to be able to predict weather for each square mile of the earth. I WISH!

If this were a situation such as in November when a cold front can often bring through a predictable stripe or shield of rain... I could tell you duration, arrival/departure time of the rain, and the total rain accumulation much more easily than in this more summery air mass--where "popcorn" nature to showers & storms mean overall greater uncertaint(ies).

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | April 11, 2008 10:19 AM | Report abuse

Let's hope it doesn't stall--I have errands to run this weekend but no dances, unless I run to Springfield or Fairfax tonight or tomorrow night.

Just noticed: this is the third or fourth straight Saturday with rain in the forecast, though most of these recent Saturdays have been mainly dry much of the time in Northern VA. What's bad is a day of near-continuous raw, rainy weather when I'm trying to run these errands. Except for this past Sunday most of THAT has stayed away from this area.

DanceCast preview: this coming Tuesday's Clarendon Ballroom swing dance. Weather.com seems to have showers dragging on into Tuesday. Most of this is cold-weather instability type convective rainfall which could be hit-and-miss in nature and may consist merely of sprinkles in a lot of this area.

Posted by: El Bombo | April 11, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

Sounds like I will need to pack the poncho and a good attitude for tomorrow's Nats game. I vote for early passage of the front, showers all done by 12:30.

Not that I really get a say :-)

Posted by: Ana B | April 11, 2008 10:45 AM | Report abuse

@Camden:

Great description of the confidence issues that go into a forecast like this. I don't have to look far back to LAST Saturday, a day that was supposed to be overcast and nasty that turned out to be sunny and wonderful. Recognizing the fluid nature of situations like this and their impact on confidence is key for `the Gang` to provide a complete representation of the forecast.

Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang (Alexadria) | April 11, 2008 10:50 AM | Report abuse

And great photo in the post!

Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang | April 11, 2008 11:01 AM | Report abuse

Hold off the rain.. we're tryin to frolf over here

Posted by: Jake in Reston | April 11, 2008 11:25 AM | Report abuse

frolf?

Posted by: missy | April 11, 2008 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Let's assume frolf is some form of miniature golf - haha

and thanks Jamie!

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | April 11, 2008 1:06 PM | Report abuse

frisby golf i believe

Posted by: asimo | April 11, 2008 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Frolf is frisbee golf... Purists may call it disc golf.

Posted by: Jake in Reston | April 11, 2008 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Wow...84.1°F in Lake Ridge VA at 3:13 PM.
QUOTE:
"Sunny spots, south of the city, may well touch the 80-degree mark for the first time this season!"

CWG gets a gold star for the day! :P


Pressure has gone down from 1004mb to 1001mb in 20 minutes. Yes I'm a geek and have my mini weather station measure in millibars rather than the "inches of mercury" that everyone else uses, hehe. I'm so used to seeing ### mb of pressure because of the NHC advisories that I don't like the inches of mercury any more.

Heyyy, here's a good idea for a future discussion:

What units of measurement do you prefer in regards to weather and why?

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | April 11, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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