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Posted at 3:25 PM ET, 05/ 8/2008

CommuteCast: Flooding Rains Possible Overnight

By Ian Livingston

**Flash Flood Warning till 4:15 a.m in D.C., Arlington, Alexandria**
**Flood Watch from 9 p.m. tonight through Friday morning**
**Tornado Watch southwest of area till 1 a.m.**
**Tornado Watch south and southeast of area till 3 a.m.**

Severe Weather Tracking Station
Warning Text: DC | MD | VA
Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop and light-
ning strikes (key) from Weather Underground. Click here to zoom. Refresh page to update.
LWX Warnings
Warnings: Severe warnings from the National Weather Service. Automatically reloads every minute (most browsers).

The Storm Prediction Center has moved a slight risk of severe weather very near the area as a few supercells and tornadoes are possible. Some severe storms may make it into the area late this evening, but the most intense activity should stay to the south, where sunshine broke through early this afternoon.

Tonight: After scattered showers this evening, the low pressure system moving towards the area will pass through the region overnight, bringing with it occasionally heavy rain and the risk of some thunderstorms. Temperatures will fall to the low and mid 60s in most locations.

Tomorrow: Low pressure responsible for the rain today and tonight will be moving out during the morning on Friday. Moderate to heavy rain early in the morning will transition to cloudy skies and a risk of a passing shower by midday. Winds behind the storm system will come out of the north at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts. Temperatures will only rise into the mid or upper 60s, so Friday may feel a little "chillier" than the last few days.

See Josh's full forecast through early next week.

Earlier Today: The area of light rain that passed through during much of the morning and early afternoon has now moved to the east while a few scattered showers remain. Temperatures struggled to get out of the 60s, thanks to the rain, but are now climbing into the 70s in many spots.

By Ian Livingston  | May 8, 2008; 3:25 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Rain Subsides Saturday into Sunday

Comments

Is there some reason we are getting 2-3" of rain per event, instead of .50 or .75. It seems like we either get a deluge or nothing these days...

Posted by: steve takoma park mdz7 | May 8, 2008 5:05 PM | Report abuse

So are we looking at 2-3 inches of precip? What's the latest intel?

Posted by: Jamie C in Chevy Chase DC | May 8, 2008 5:11 PM | Report abuse

1-2" is a good bet on an average rainfall amount in the area. Some will probably see more than 2".

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 6:08 PM | Report abuse

How is it looking for the outdoor concert/illumination at the National Cathedral sat night?

Posted by: Sara in Oakton | May 8, 2008 6:16 PM | Report abuse

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch to our southwest till 1 a.m.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 6:57 PM | Report abuse

Tornado Warning for Central VA with supercell (new in last hour) .. just coming into SW cornder of radar view attached to original post.

* at 815 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 7 miles southwest of Palmyra... or 7 miles northwest of Fork Union... moving northeast at 22 mph.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 8:29 PM | Report abuse

Tornado warning (supercell rotation) for Charlottesville/Albemarle County; another warning (doppler radar indicated tornado) for Fluvanna & Louisa Counties. Both systems heading northeast.

Posted by: Murre | May 8, 2008 9:01 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, heading right at me in LoCo. I thought I had enough of tornadoes in Suffolk last week. Fredricksburg looks like a target in the next two hours...not sure, but the radar returns may be indicating some very large hail - or some rainfall rates like we rarely see around here.

Posted by: Dulles ARC | May 8, 2008 9:10 PM | Report abuse

What's the latest, Ian? Doesn't it look as though some of those supercells are heading straight for D.C.?

Posted by: Etta | May 8, 2008 9:27 PM | Report abuse

It's still calm and pleasant in Silver Spring. I hope the storms peter out soon.

Posted by: Murre | May 8, 2008 9:27 PM | Report abuse

Etta: Storms should start affecting the south and southwest suburbs in the next hour. Heavy rain and perhaps some small hail is possible. None of the storms look tornadic at the moment.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 9:35 PM | Report abuse

While folks are waiting for the storms to come in, check out Steve Tracton's post beneath this one. Bob Ryan (from NBC4) has just left a detailed comment worth reading.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 9:37 PM | Report abuse

Weather radio just went off, a whole slurry of counties just went under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING, including:

Orange, Culpeper, Stafford, Prince William, Fauquier

there might have been a few others.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 8, 2008 9:57 PM | Report abuse

Weatherdude beat me to it. And, you covered all the counties in that alert. You're much closer to that storm than I am! Let's hope it dies down soon.

Posted by: Murre (Silver Spring) | May 8, 2008 10:08 PM | Report abuse

A TORNADO WARNING is in effect for Orange, Culpeper, Stafford, Fauquier

Looks like Prince William is in this storm's crosshairs next. Guess who isn't going to bed until the storm is gone? Heh. And I have to get up at 530 in the morning too. Stupid weather. ;)


FOX 5 is showing very strong rotation on the supercell near spotsylvania.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 8, 2008 10:18 PM | Report abuse

Tornado warning for:
ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA
CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA
FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA
STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. On radar, tornado appears to be in western Spotsylvania County, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 10:22 PM | Report abuse

I'm beginning to get very nervous, I don't know if it's my imagination or what, but the storm in Stafford is developing a hook...?

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 8, 2008 10:25 PM | Report abuse

That's interesting, Jason ... the tornado warning at 10:02 put the tornado near Belmont in Spotsylvania County and said it was moving northeast.

Posted by: Murre | May 8, 2008 10:27 PM | Report abuse

weatherdude: does look like a hook in the spotsy cell heading to stafford

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 10:29 PM | Report abuse

Murre: I made typoes writing in haste. Should've said northeast.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 10:30 PM | Report abuse

Fox says NWS has let the tornado warnings expire, and the storm is weakening a little.

And weatherbug hasn't gone off once tonight, you know that? Strange. To think I used to live by that thing for warnings. Good thing I have you guys and my weather radio :)

And as I'm typing this the weather radio is going off and saying that Stafford, Spotsylvania, and City of Fredericksburg under tornado warning til 1115

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 8, 2008 10:34 PM | Report abuse


* AT 1027 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STAFFORD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

Posted by: Murre | May 8, 2008 10:40 PM | Report abuse

New tornado warning on same cell.

* at 1027 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a developing tornado 17 miles southwest of Stafford... moving northeast at 22 mph.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 10:40 PM | Report abuse

Just read Bob Ryan's comments on Steve Tracton's earlier post - both very cool!

I hope those tornadoes running around sw of here won't move into Fairfax Co in a few hours. I'm going to go to bed...thunder and heavy rain now in Merrifield.

Posted by: ~sg | May 8, 2008 10:43 PM | Report abuse

I just heard thunder here. I suppose eventually it will start to rain.

Posted by: Murre (Silver Spring) | May 8, 2008 10:44 PM | Report abuse

Discrete supercell that has had all the tornado warnings seems to be getting overtaken by the line of storms now. Should mean a diminishing tornado threat, but at the same time it's been pulled a little north of it's northeast track, so it could sneak into the immediate DC area in some form.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 10:46 PM | Report abuse

Rotating cell now moving into Stafford county, passing west of Fredericksburg -- rotation does seem so to be weakening, but tornado threat is still there.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 10:46 PM | Report abuse

Emergency Alert System just went off here in Lake Ridge...Tornado Warning for Prince William until 11 PM. Doesn't seem right, but whatever. They're the mets.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 8, 2008 10:50 PM | Report abuse

Seems to be holding together to me, based on NEXRAD radar and the Weather Service radar.

Posted by: Model Monkey | May 8, 2008 11:07 PM | Report abuse

Still have a velocity couplet - an indication of a rotating storm with tornado potential - smack dab in the middle of Stafford county... moving northeast towards Prince William County... getting very close to I-95.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 11:07 PM | Report abuse

Looks like it is moving more easterly now. I'm still nervous, and I have my extra-nervous aunt (who is in Dumfries) on IM right now trying to help her understand what the radar is telling her.

Just started pouring like crazy here in LR.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 8, 2008 11:16 PM | Report abuse

Looks like tornado warning has been allowed to expire. I haven't heard reports of anything reported on the ground (although it's early).

From here (in all likelihood), the main issue is very heavy rain. 2-3" of rain is possible by morning!

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 11:22 PM | Report abuse

WOOHOO! I'm going to bed. I'm a worry-wart by nature, and this just about did me in. Hopefully the nice, non-tornadic thunder will help me go to sleep. Hopefully I don't have to go to the bus stop in the AM via rowboat.

And sorry for commenting so much tonight. Heh. :)

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 8, 2008 11:25 PM | Report abuse

Rain getting heavier, and thunder. I think I'll turn off my computer and hope that the tornado doesn't reconstitute itself.

Posted by: Murre (Silver Spring) | May 8, 2008 11:29 PM | Report abuse

* Tornado Warning for...
Prince Georges County in central Maryland
Fairfax County in northern Virginia
Prince William County in northern Virginia
Stafford County in northern Virginia
Charles County in southern Maryland

* at 1132 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
developing tornado near Triangle... moving northeast at 27 mph.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 11:38 PM | Report abuse

By far the heaviest thunderstorm I've experienced in years with incredible rain, lightning, and thunder. There is no way to sleep through this one.

The only saving grace is the winds were not as intense as some, at least so far.

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | May 8, 2008 11:38 PM | Report abuse

Can someone PLEASE kill off this tornado so I can go to sleep??!!

Posted by: alexandria | May 8, 2008 11:53 PM | Report abuse

Can someone PLEASE kill off this tornado so I can go to sleep??!!

Posted by: alexandria | May 8, 2008 11:53 PM | Report abuse

Damage reports near Fredericksburg VA.. possible tornado.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 8, 2008 11:56 PM | Report abuse

Round two is moving in. I have already received two inches of rain with MUCH more coming down as I type.

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | May 9, 2008 12:15 AM | Report abuse

This storm has now been producing possible tornadoes for 4 hours.


* Tornado Warning for...
Prince Georges County in central Maryland
Charles County in southern Maryland


* at 1213 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
developing tornado 12 miles west of Waldorf... moving northeast at
27 mph.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 9, 2008 12:31 AM | Report abuse

So far just rain, with a little lightning, out here in Loudoun -- just west of the Rt 7/Rt 28 interchange. Looks like all the action is well east of here.

Posted by: Donna | May 9, 2008 12:34 AM | Report abuse

Severe weather threat diminishing in Northern VA, but good golly, is that a widespread coverage on radar of heavy rain. Looks almost like a tropical weather system for moisture content.

Posted by: Mike | May 9, 2008 1:05 AM | Report abuse

So went to sleep after I realized the possible tornado had passed on by, but now it sounds like there is a drum on my roof. POURING.

Posted by: alexandria | May 9, 2008 1:06 AM | Report abuse

Topper Shutt doing a great job with these storms on 9.2

Posted by: steve takoma park md | May 9, 2008 1:12 AM | Report abuse

Good thing I logged off without seeing the Tornado Warning for PG County ... though it wasn't for Montgomery County it was close enough. I fell asleep pretty quickly, with earplugs, so I was unaware of the weather.

Posted by: Murre (Silver Spring) | May 9, 2008 5:24 AM | Report abuse

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