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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 05/27/2008

Forecast: Return to Rainy Reality

By Matt Rogers

You knew we were due. After one of the best Memorial Day Weekends in recent memory, the return of a wet day was inevitable. And it looks to be today. Expect showers and thunderstorms through the day preceding a late afternoon cold front. There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms in the area this afternoon (hail and high winds). Showers could linger into the evening hours as conditions turn cooler on northerly winds. A much cooler day is slated for Wednesday with only slow warming trends through the week.


Radar: Latest mid-Atlantic radar loop from the National Weather Service. Click here to expand. Refresh page to update. What is UTC?

Showers and thunderstorms. Low 80s. Variable clouds and still a warm weather situation is expected through at least midday. The best chance (70%) of precipitation is in the afternoon/evening hours, but a morning shower is also possible. There is an outside chance for a severe thunderstorm with high winds and small hail. Highs should reach the lower 80s in the early afternoon.

Clouds linger, but cooler northerly winds bring temperatures back down into the 50s tonight. A stray shower is still possible.

Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend.


Cloudy and cool. Upper 60s to low 70s. Below normal temperatures and some persistent cloudiness issues should rule the day. Look for temperatures to struggle to reach near 70 throughout the metro area.

Clouds will finally give way to some degree and allow for temperatures to dip a bit cooler on Wednesday night. Look for lows to drop into the lower 50s inside the Beltway and could drop deeper into the mid-upper 40s in the outer suburbs.


Thursday and Friday are looking partly cloudy right now with highs in the lower to middle 70s on Thursday and upper 70s on Friday. Lows should range through the 50s (some 40s in outer suburbia again). Confidence: Medium-High

The upcoming weekend does not look to hold the star-power of last weekend as warmer temperatures return (80s both days!), but showers also follow suit (50% chance each day). Stay tuned for more fine-tuning of the weekend details in the coming days. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Matt Rogers  | May 27, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: More on NOAA's Summer Outlook


Blame the rain on me...I washed my car this weekend. It never fails.

Posted by: Sterling Park | May 27, 2008 9:17 AM | Report abuse

phewww, air conditioner had to be turned on last night - anyone else feeling the indoor humidity levels also elevating?? :)

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | May 27, 2008 10:39 AM | Report abuse

Camden: Yep. I'm beginning to remember why I like winter so much. ;)

Henry Margusity of Accuweather is seeing a tropical storm/hurricane/something coming out of the Gulf sometime in a week or so. He said it's been pretty consistent. What do you guys think? I looked at the GFS and it has it hitting Florida.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 27, 2008 11:16 AM | Report abuse

A weak tropical storm or plain ol' tropical depression hitting Florida this time of year isn't out of the question. but I still think chances in a week are still low. Below 40% I'd say.

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | May 27, 2008 11:21 AM | Report abuse

There has been disturbed weather near Panama for a good 48 hours or so. There are some signs of circulation in both the SW Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. Climo tends to favor the Pacific side right now.. and I don't think we would see formation on both sides. Something to watch though.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 27, 2008 12:03 PM | Report abuse

Unfortunately tonight is a dance night (Clarendon Ballroom), but we had good weather for Sunday night's dance.

Generally Panama is too far south (9 degrees north latitude) for tropical circulation to develop. I was down there about 40 years ago. We never had any hurricane threats near the Panama Canal, but we frequently would have bad weather during the "wet season" (May to early December) whenever a tropical wave or an ITCZ disturbance passed by. Tropical circulation develops most frequently between 10 and 20 degrees north latitude. Closer to the Equator, the Coriolis effect circulation has a harder time establishing itself. In fact a tropical storm or hurricane, when pushed in the direction of the Equator, generally tends to dissipate. No tropical system has ever crossed the Equator into the opposite hemisphere where low-pressure circulation tends to switch from counter-clockwise to clockwise or vice versa.

Posted by: El Bombo | May 27, 2008 4:42 PM | Report abuse

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