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Posted at 8:11 AM ET, 05/31/2008

NOAA: Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms

By Jason Samenow

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the storm threat from slight to moderate today. A moderate risk indicates a potential for a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms than the slight risk, and in most situations, greater magnitude of the severe weather. It is fairly unusual for our area to be in the "moderate risk" category, and much more common in the Midwest. In a special statement, SPC warns:

ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS -- INCLUDING HAIL AND TORNADOES -- BUT AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND IS THE PREDOMINANT THREAT LATER TODAY.

For more detailed information, including the most likely times for storms today, see our full forecast.

By Jason Samenow  | May 31, 2008; 8:11 AM ET
Categories:  Thunderstorms  
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Next: Tornado Watch Issued; Storm Threat Until Evening

Comments

Looks like I will clean out the garage to make sure I can get the car in there this afternoon.

Posted by: John | May 31, 2008 8:23 AM | Report abuse

Mesoscale discussion for area, watch coming later it seems.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 31, 2008 10:05 AM | Report abuse

SPC shows southern part of system going right through Eastern Panhandle. Oh joy. No garage but I'm going to move my car (future potential projectile) AWAY from big glass doors.

Posted by: tinkerbelle | May 31, 2008 10:09 AM | Report abuse

TORNADO Watch issued.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | May 31, 2008 10:26 AM | Report abuse

Check the probabilities on the tornado watch: 70% tornadoes, >95% damaging wind, >95% damaging hail. This is a short step or two short of a PDS watch (particularly dangerous situation). The only thing in our favor is that the probabilities for extremely damaging events is relatively low (20 - 30%).

Posted by: Steve Wasko | May 31, 2008 10:54 AM | Report abuse

I woke up not 5 minutes ago and ran to the computer to check the SPC. I knew they would put us under a moderate risk.

The "probabilities" the SPC put out are:

10% chance a tornado will occur within 25 miles of any given point in the MDT risk.

30% chance hail > 3/4" will occur within 25 miles of any given point in the MDT risk.

45% chance winds >58MPH will occur within 25 miles of any given point in the MDT risk.

Looking at the radar, it looks like it wants to stay just north of northern VA, but we'll see. They can always build downwards. My weather radio is working, and I'm ready to have an argument with my family members because they don't care about no stinkin' tornado warning. Ugh.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 31, 2008 10:55 AM | Report abuse

*Should be an interesting day, weather-wise, while we never want to see anyone hurt or lose property, could be an exciting day to watch unfold....no where to go, so yard work, radar, CapWx gang..oh and listening to the gf talk! (kidding, lol)

*Time stamp on posts seems to be off by a bit, posting this at 1018am.

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | May 31, 2008 11:18 AM | Report abuse

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT FOR EVERYONE....

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 31, 2008 11:25 AM | Report abuse

yeah, what's up with the time stamps? It's 1028 and it says I posted at 1125.

WOOHOO - I've perfected time travel! See you later suckers-stuck-in-the-present. YEEHAW!

;P

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | May 31, 2008 11:29 AM | Report abuse

"they don't care about no stinkin' tornado warning."

Even after the Stafford County tornado? Sheesh.

10:38 am

Posted by: Murre | May 31, 2008 11:38 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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