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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 06/24/2008

Forecast: Humidity's Humble Hiatus

By Matt Rogers

The oft-hated humidity, the source of our heated discomfort and ever-present storminess, will be taking a brief departure today and tomorrow. Since the summer has barely begun, we can hardly tell it 'good riddance' though and indeed, it should be back in our forecast picture as early as Thursday and Friday (along with more storms and heat).

TODAY (TUESDAY)

Lower humidities with isolated p.m.storms possible. Mid 80s. Plenty of cloud cover is expected, but temperatures should still build to seasonal highs in the mid 80s. We're still looking for just a 20% chance of afternoon isolated thunderstorms. Humidity levels will be lower overall.

Some scattered clouds tonight, but turning cooler due to those lower humidities. Expect temperatures to dip into the 60s with overnight lows near 60 in the suburbs and closer to the middle 60s downtown.

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend. See NatCast for the outlook for tonight's game.

TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY)

Seasonal temperatures but lower humidities. Mid 80s. Mostly sunny skies and no thunderstorms are expected for tomorrow with highs reaching the mid 80s throughout the metro area. We may see a few locations sneak up into the upper 80s, but our humidity hiatus will keep the heat index tamed.

Winds will begin shifting more and more from the southwest Wednesday evening and the slow return of humidity is expected. Lows should dip into the mid to upper 60s.

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday brings the return of our two frequent visitors this summer -- more humidity and more thunderstorms. Our trusty weather models might be underestimating the thunderstorm threat again, so look for a more robust 50% chance of storms and a high temperature in the upper 80s. We should have similar concerns on Friday except for hotter temperatures (highs lower 90s, Friday night lows in the lower 70s). Confidence: Medium-High

The weekend keeps the whole summer gang together with heat (lower 90s), humidity (haze and higher heat indexes), and thunderstorms (some could be severe AGAIN). We should be seeing a more significant cold front later on Sunday that could usher in another humidity hiatus for early next week. We'll update the weekend outlook again tomorrow, but for now it looks like another stormy story around these parts. Confidence: Medium

By Matt Rogers  | June 24, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Yes, as I often tell newcomers to the area: it's not the temps that get you, it's the dew points. Was that a cold front (or at least dew point front) that went through last night around 10:00?

Posted by: Max | June 24, 2008 7:27 AM | Report abuse

NWS marine forecast and CBOFS agree on steady winds N/NW 10-15 kt throughout the day today on the upper tidal Potomac - no SCA in sight. Does CWG concur? It just doesn't get any better than this....I'm looking for crew.

Posted by: ~sg | June 24, 2008 7:41 AM | Report abuse

Max: Yes-- a cold front came through last night-- with the main effect dropping dew points

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 24, 2008 7:46 AM | Report abuse

I'll cheer any day for a delay in the hot and hazy summer. Though, it seems to be making a liar out of me since I told the new kid at work that DC summers are killers.

Better a liar than meltin I suppose.

Posted by: Pamela | June 24, 2008 8:02 AM | Report abuse

~sg, I'd love to be out on a boat today. But alas, I'm in the office (and I don't own a boat anyway). It sure was pleasant this morning walking from the car to the office.

Pamela, just wait, we're bound to have a killer week or two.

Posted by: Murre | June 24, 2008 8:05 AM | Report abuse

@Murre: I'm still in the office too, but dying to get out on the water. Maybe later today!

Posted by: ~sg | June 24, 2008 8:16 AM | Report abuse

You're simplifying things too much, Matt. Obviously, it takes warmth and moisture to produce thunderstorms, but that alone is not the reason for the repeat storms this June.....and you can even get storms BEHIND s cold front if the air aloft is cold enough to destabilize things.

First of all, late May through late June is the peak severe storm season here anyway.....that is more or less normal. But even in addition to that, the number of severe storms has been multiplied by an unually active jet stream, storm pattern, frequent cold fronts, and cold pools of air aloft. Those are the prime ingredients for evere storms....and they have just hung around a little longer than usual this year.

Just watch. When the Bermuda High takes over in July and the storm track shifts north, we wil get fewer and less violent storms....and the famous Washington summer.

Posted by: Mike | June 24, 2008 8:38 AM | Report abuse

Recent May/June periods before these past two years or so have tended to be relatively free of the severe weather we're getting this year. Frankly I've considered the August/September "tropical" season to be more prone to severe weather outbreaks than May/June. However it varies year by year. This year we happen to be having a really active severe weather season. It reminds me of back home in Wisconsin (home of the "June monsoons").

As Mike said, the Bermuda High will soon establish itself and we'll be seeing less stormy weather around here. Then about mid-August we'll have to start watching the tropics. Often August and September can start really getting active.

Posted by: El Bombo | June 24, 2008 10:29 AM | Report abuse

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