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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 06/22/2008

Forecast: Summertime Storms Stick Around

By Brian Jackson

By Brian Jackson

Storms are in the forecast again today as somewhat warm and humid conditions clash with an approaching cold front. The chance of storms continues into Monday and diminishes Monday night. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the storms take a hiatus. Both days should be sunny and pleasant, with temperatures remaining seasonably warm.

TODAY (SUNDAY)

Radar: Latest mid-Atlantic radar loop from the National Weather Service. Click here to expand. Refresh page to update. What is UTC?

Partly sunny with showers and t'storms developing. 83-88. There may be a few showers and storms this morning (20% chance) but most will see partly sunny skies and temperatures warming to the mid 80s by the afternoon. A slow moving cold front will edge closer to the metro area throughout the day with thunderstorm chances gradually increasing towards the late afternoon and evening when odds increase to 60%. The strongest of these storms may produce some large hail and strong, gusty winds. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, but stronger in thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the night as the front crosses the area very slowly. The most intense of these storms will subside before midnight. Outside the storms, skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will hover around 70. Winds will be light and out of the south.

Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast into midweek. See NatCast and UnitedCast to find out if there's any chance of staying dry at these two sporting events.

TOMORROW (MONDAY)

Mostly cloudy, risk of p.m. t'storms again. 85-89. A chance for showers and thunderstorms lingers into Monday afternoon and evening as this slow moving front sluggishly pushes east. Highs will reach the upper 80s in areas where the sun shines for significant periods, and the low to mid 80s where the clouds hold strong.

Monday night, skies will continue to be mostly cloudy. I cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm (30%) into the early morning. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s.

A LOOK AHEAD

Midweek brings clearer skies and ends our rain chances as high pressure finally builds in from the west. On Tuesday, skies will clear in the wake of the front. Our afternoon temperatures should be in the comfortable mid 80s.Confidence: Medium-High

Wednesday looks just as pleasant. Sunny afternoon skies, with highs again reaching the mid 80s.Confidence: Medium-High

By Brian Jackson  | June 22, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

What are the chances of a return to the weather we had a few days ago (eg. temperatures 5+ degrees cooler than average)?

Posted by: Murre | June 22, 2008 5:44 AM | Report abuse

Murre, we can only hope! Mid-week sounds pretty sweet though.

Posted by: ~sg | June 22, 2008 8:53 AM | Report abuse

@ ~sg, I swear the last forecast I saw for the coming week didn't have such delightful weather for Tuesday. Thanks for the good news!

Posted by: Murre | June 22, 2008 9:26 AM | Report abuse

This forecast for "all-day thunderstorms" is mighty unusual, given the absence of any TROPICAL systems over the Mid-Atlantic region. It seems more like a forecast for Wisconsin at this time of year!

My hunch is that the severe activity, if any, peaks from 2-8 PM both today and tomorrow. Frankly I'd be surprised if tomorrow's AM rush is laden with downpours. Hope it clears by dance time Tuesday evening.

Speaking of the tropics, ECMWF has a nice system way out in the East-Central Pacific next Sunday the 29th, far from land. The big tropical action today is over the central Philippines, heading towards Taiwan.

Posted by: El Bombo | June 22, 2008 9:52 AM | Report abuse

A trickle of rain overnight gave me .04 rain in the ol' bucket.....74/60 currently.

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | June 22, 2008 11:17 AM | Report abuse


El Bombo is correct, the tropical action is in the West Pacific.

Typhoon Fengshen has killed at least 155 people in the Philippines in a torrent of flash floods and landslides, according to the head of the Philippines Red Cross. The toll could rise dramatically as more is learned about a capsized ferry with more than 700 passengers aboard - few survivors found thus far.

All this death and destruction with a minimal typhoon - max sustained winds of 75 mph!! The storm is expected to brush by or track over western Taiwan without intensifying further.


Posted by: Steve Tracton, Capital Weather Gang | June 22, 2008 11:24 AM | Report abuse

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT

Have no idea what time it's in effect until though - just issued like 30 seconds ago by the SPC. It's watch 594.

It's for the entire area.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge | June 22, 2008 1:18 PM | Report abuse

WW in effect til 8 PM tonight.

Hahahha I'm good, I saw the watch on the SPC site before they could even write up the text for it. :P

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake RIdge) | June 22, 2008 1:20 PM | Report abuse

June is rapidly becoming THE month for severe weather here in the DC area. To some extent, though, that is normal. Many, if not most, of the heaviest, most rapidly moving storms with the strongest winds have historically occurred here in late May through late June. Last June, a stalled front just west of the DC area interacted with a persistant SE tropical flow to give us an entire week of heavy thunderstorms and serious flooding.

But that was one thing. I cannot ever remember a persistant low-pressure trough aloft that ever hung on this long and gave us repeated storms every day in June for almost three solid weeks. Usually the Bermuda high sets up by now and gives us just heat, humidity, and occasional, routine, non-severe air-mass storms, not the spring-type severe storms we keep getting every day.

Can't blame global warming either....this has been a relatively cool pattern this year, or at least cooler than normal.

Posted by: Mike | June 22, 2008 4:03 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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