Forecast: Warmth And Weekend Storms?

WeatherCamToday will be spectacular, and pleasantly warm weather continues into the weekend. But humidity gradually increases. Tomorrow through Tuesday, we add in the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Of these days, the best chance for storminess is Sunday. All in all though, nothing too threatening or unbearable!

TODAY (FRIDAY)

Warm & sunny. Mid 80s. It will be warm but not overly muggy. Enjoy sunny skies with rain chances close to NIL today. A slight breeze out of the northwest adds some comfort. And hopefully you can don those shorts to work. It is Friday after all, right?

Skies will be fair overnight. Low temperatures could dip below 60 outside the Beltway and still feel comfortable downtown -- in the middle 60s. Not too shabby, methinks.

Keep reading to see how stormy we're thinking the weekend may be. Check out NatCast if you're headed to Nationals Park tonight, or Beachcast if you're headed to the shore this weekend.

TOMORROW (SATURDAY)

Partly cloudy. P.M. t'showers? Upper 80s. Skies won't be quite as clear tomorrow, and humidity not quite as low (and comfortable). By the afternoon, a chance of showers and thunderstorms exists. But only a 30% chance. It will be nice n' warm, with highs in the upper 80s. Wondering where the muggier air is coming from? From the direction the wind is blowing: Out of the southwest from 5 to 10 mph -- funneling in moist air from near the Gulf of Mexico.

*Trivia fact: Towering cumulus (developing T-storm) clouds can actually magnify UV radiation. So even though you look at the sky and think "huh, it's partly cloudy with all these puffy clouds around, so UV should be must be lower" -- you'd be wrong. ALL THE MORE REASON to lather on sunscreen! Please whip out that SPF 30+!

Showers and storms could continue Saturday evening. Low temperatures may not get below the middle 60s in most spots, since skies will stay mostly cloudy. Rain chances will remain around 30% and light southwest winds will continue to subtly moisten the atmosphere.

SUNDAY

Humid. Good chance of storms. Low 80s. With a 60% chance of rain on Sunday and mostly cloudy skies, I hope you can watch radar and dodge some of the heavier showers and storms. We shouldn't have a washout though and there should be some windows for outdoor activities. While it won't be too hot, you will notice the increased humidity.

Mostly cloudy overnight with lows barely ducking below the 70-degree mark. Showers & storms may still affect the area through mid evening, with partly cloudy skies thereafter.

A LOOK AHEAD

Partly sunny conditions on Monday with average warmth. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80s and a small chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms (30%). Confidence: Medium

On Tuesday, we almost have a repeat performance. Showers and storms threaten (30%) again with temperatures reaching the lower 80s. Confidence: Medium

By Camden Walker |  June 20, 2008; 5:00 AM ET Forecasts
Previous: Natcast: Sitting Pretty, Clear and Dry | Next: Beware of Bolts From the Blue

Comments

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Not to diminish the value of UV protection, but can you cite a source for the claim "Towering cumulus (developing T-storm) clouds can actually magnify UV radiation"? It sounds incredible. Thanks.

Posted by: Roy | June 20, 2008 8:13 AM
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Guys-
so, just to clarify- is Saturday going to be uncomfortably muggy, or just a little more muggy than today?

After a rough week at work, I have a lot of sitting on the deck (beer in hand) time planned for Saturday, and I'd hate for the humidity to cramp that...

Posted by: jbroon | June 20, 2008 8:16 AM
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I'm just STUNNED that we may have a t-storm.

Posted by: wow | June 20, 2008 8:23 AM
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Any idea on the timing of the "rainfree windows" on Sunday? Could one fall in the 3-5 timeframe when the DC United game will be taking place?

Posted by: A fan sick of rain on gamedays | June 20, 2008 8:26 AM
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These past few days have reminded me a lot of (the best possible) summer weather in northern England. One thing I always found so annoying though was that you'd get brilliant sunshine from like 4 am - 10 am, and then it would cloud up for the rest of the day. Can the CW team explain the weather pattern where the "early bird gets the worm" as far as sunshine is concerned?

Posted by: Max | June 20, 2008 9:45 AM
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jbroon: Tomorrow will definitely be more humid today and moderately muggy... but not quite oppressive.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 10:31 AM
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sick of rainy united game days: We can't pin down the timing of the rain on Sunday at this point although I will say odds are greatest during the late afternoon and evening, which unfortunately coincides with the DC United game.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 10:37 AM
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Max: When there is a cold air aloft (at cloud level), and the sun warms the surface in the morning and afternoon, it causes the air to rise. When warm air rises into cooler air, it condenses and forms clouds during peak afternoon heating. Due to a dip in the jet stream, we've had cold air aloft the past several days, creating the unstable airmass that has lended itself to cloud development and isolated t'storms each afternoon.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 10:44 AM
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Roy-- Here is an article from American Scientist which describes how clouds, in some cases, can enhance surface UV: Sunshine on a Cloudy Day

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 10:49 AM
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I'm in an outdoors wedding near Hagerstown on Saturday. Is the chance for rain/storms any different up there for Saturday afternoon?

Posted by: Laura in NWDC | June 20, 2008 10:50 AM
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Laura: I would say comparably low chances (30%)

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 10:52 AM
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This is my favorite weather website but I do have one complaint. I still don't think the capital weather gang has nailed the "At a Glance" pictures which depict the upcoming forecast. Although saturday is going to be nice with a chance of late day thunderstorms the "At a Glance" picture shows darks clouds, a rain drop, and a lightning bolt. I know enough about weather to know what it means but to the casual weather observer which probably makes up 90% of the people usuing this page it could be confusing. Aside from that I still love this page.

Posted by: Eric | June 20, 2008 11:01 AM
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Eric -- Thanks for the feedback. I hear you on the icon issue and agree they could be misleading on their own. However, they're intended to complement our own forecast which provides the detail you describe -- so we hope people will read our detailed forecasts rather than solely relying on the icons. Also, the actual icon that displays is not determined by us, but by the National Weather Service, which we get through an automated feed.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 11:36 AM
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Eric -- Appreciate the feedback. The timing of your comment is incredible. I literally was just talking the past couple days with Jamie, our webmaster, about a couple tweaks to our At-a-Glance icons that would go toward addressing your comment. As it turns out, the Saturday icon actually pretty much matches what the NWS is forecasting for DC on Saturday (mostly cloudy, chance of t'storms), whereas we are going partly cloudy in Camden's forecast. But you are right that there are times the icons we're showing are a bit more gloom and doom than the intended NWS forecast (although less so than the icons NWS uses on their own website). We'll be making a few tweaks over the coming days, so keep watching and let us know if you see any improvement in the icon forecast depiction.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 12:02 PM
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Dan, why use the NWS feed at all? We're looking for your forecast and perhaps you should pick the icons that best represent your forecast ... (?)

Posted by: Andy | June 20, 2008 1:14 PM
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My dance this evening at the Elks Lodge looks okay. (8 PM--midnight)

Columbia Pike Blues Festival tomorrow PM: chance of an isolated thunderstorm.

The big weather issue this weekend involves the projected all-day thunderstorm risk Sunday. Wonder what's going on as we have no threat of organized tropical activity anywhere other than possibly the West Pacific off Japan. Could we be subject to some rain action moving in from the Midwest?

Yesterday we had the usual dinnertime shower which has begun to be a regular feature of this pattern.

Posted by: El Bombo | June 20, 2008 1:23 PM
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Andy-- It's simple: We don't have the time/resources to manually update that several times a day and we'd rather focus our efforts on the written commentary/features.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 2:08 PM
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Yep ... some day maybe we'll do our own At a Glance. But in the meantime, we think the NWS forecast serves as a nice snapshot for those in a hurry, while we pour our effort into the more detailed forecasts that appear in the blog posts (and which you can always jump to immediately using the "Go to CWG's Full Forecast" link at the bottom of the At-a-Glance box).

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 4:37 PM
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I have planned a Sat camping trip on the Maryland AT with some buddies. We've going to make the "go/no-go" decision tomorrow morning. Our concern is late afternoon / early evening thunderstorm and sustained rain. Any advice from the gang?

Posted by: Randy | June 20, 2008 5:51 PM
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Randy: I don't know if I'd cancel a whole trip due to the threat of scattered/isolated afternoon t'storms. I don't think this is going to be a sustained rain event -- either weekend days.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | June 20, 2008 11:00 PM
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Thanks Jason.

Posted by: Roy | June 21, 2008 9:45 AM
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