Forecast: Cold Front to Topple Heat Regime
Weather coup d'etat this afternoon and evening
*Heat Advisory in effect through 8 p.m.*
The temperature revolution is nearing closer with our current extreme heat regime about to be removed from power. But do not expect it to go without a fight. The battle is to be waged this afternoon and evening with a chance of thunderstorms once again invading the D.C. area. The Storm Prediction Center says that some storms could be severe. By tomorrow, we should be in a new more comfortable world with highs in the 80s.
TODAY (TUESDAY)
Last big hot day. Afternoon/evening storms possible. Middle to upper 90s It's the final day of simmering heat -- at least for a while. As the heat index again climbs over 100 this afternoon, clouds should begin to increase. The best chance of storms (40% chance) arrives late in the afternoon and into the evening. A few storms could produce very heavy rain and damaging winds. Rainfall amounts may reach up to 0.75" locally.
A few storms could linger overnight followed by a wind shift late a night from a cooler northerly direction. Look for temperatures in the upper 60s in the suburbs to near 70 downtown DC.
Confidence: Medium-High
Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend.
TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY)
Partly cloudy with lower humidity. 85-89. Northerly winds should continue the cooling and drying process. The mid to upper 80s will feel far more comfortable than recent days in the metro area. Look for spells of cloud cover intermixed with rays of sunshine during the day.
Partly cloudy skies Wednesday night. Lows should dip into the lower to middle 60s. Aaah.
Thursday continues the pleasant weather theme with dominating sunshine and highs in the middle 80s. Lows will drop to the 60s once again. Confidence: Medium-High
Friday starts to tick that humidity back up a notch again and we could even hit 90 in some locations. Also expect a better chance of evening thunderstorms and lows down in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Confidence: Medium
The weekend is split right now with a humid, thunderstorm-heavy Saturday (highs upper 80s to lower 90s) and a cooler, drier Sunday (highs lower 80s). Timing is everything and the forecast is subject to change this early in the game. Confidence: Medium
By Matt Rogers |
June 10, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Forecasts
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Posted by: Murre | June 10, 2008 6:08 AM
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That's what I'd like to know too. I sure hope not.
Posted by: weatherwomanwannabe | June 10, 2008 6:34 AM
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I have a game on the national mall tonight around 6:30pm. What time are we expecting the thunderstorms to fire up?
Posted by: its my bday | June 10, 2008 6:52 AM
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It does not look like a Wednesday repeat at this point. The Storm Prediction Center is predicting the worst storms to be up in Pennsylvania and New York state this afternoon or evening.
Timing would be late this afternoon and evening through maybe 9 or 10pm for our window of storminess opportunity. However, this does not look like a washout like last week. "My bday", you have a much better chance of getting your game in...but it's still going to be quite hot at 6:30pm. Stay super-hydrated!
Posted by: Matt Rogers, Capital Weather Gang | June 10, 2008 7:15 AM
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Happy birthday! I can't believe the lettuce isn't bolting yet, it's going strong. The radishes and mustard greens are just barely starting to bolt. But ugh, even first thing in the morning, harvesting and weeding is not fun in this weather. Thank God it's going to break tonight!
Posted by: Chickenlady | June 10, 2008 8:53 AM
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"My cold front overthrew the Heat Regime and all I got was this lousy thunderstorm."
I could see one of us saying that tonight ;)
Looks like it's going to be an interesting last day of school. I get to stay up late tonight and track the thunderstorms, as well as the next day, and the 2.5 months after that. WOOHOO!!!
I hope we get a decent, NON-severe thunderstorm today. But with the way it's been the last few years, we don't get thunderstorms without the severity anymore...
Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | June 10, 2008 8:55 AM
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Havoc checking in on his birthday (A happy birthday to "my bday" as well). Reporting in at 9:20 in Rockville 92 degrees. It's gonna be a hot one today. Also, a question, do hotter temps equal strongers storms? I've always thought this to be true, but situations vary obviously.
Posted by: Havoc | June 10, 2008 9:20 AM
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Havoc,
Since hot air rises, it definitely plays a role in helping to build stronger storm potential. But there are various other factors at the upper levels of the atmosphere (and at the surface...like a cold front) that can either "cap" storms or help them grow/strengthen. Right now, it seems like the most supportive upper air dynamics will be to our north this afternoon...but definitely something to watch today.
Posted by: Matt Rogers | June 10, 2008 9:37 AM
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Matt:
Loved your post. Very clever writing.
You too, Weatherdude.
Posted by: Science teacher | June 10, 2008 10:15 AM
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I know it's early, but you wrote of potential for Saturday thunderstorms? Once again during the evening DC United game?
I hope not.
Posted by: seahawkdad | June 10, 2008 1:52 PM
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Seahawkdad: The latest midday weather model from the National Weather Service (GFS model) is calling for the heaviest precipitation to be later Saturday night, but there are still scattered showers/storms late afternoon/evening too. Hopefully, the cool front will slow down for the game!
Posted by: Matt Rogers | June 10, 2008 2:25 PM
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The comments to this entry are closed.
Any chance that this afternoon's thunderstorms could rival last Wednesday's?