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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 07/ 1/2008

Forecast: A First Class Kind of Day

By Matt Rogers

But Fourth of July outlook may require seat belts

After several days of heat, humidity, and some severe thunderstorms, the skies are finally turning friendly today. There may be a bump or two during the afternoon with an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but the big story will be lower humidities and temperatures. Wednesday should also offer clear sailing with plenty of opportunities to get up and walk about the city. Unfortunately, hints of turbulence are indicated by later on Thursday into the holiday weekend with more heat, humidity, and thunderstorms.


Very comfortable temperatures (lower 80s) with isolated showers in the afternoon Look for variable sky cover as the winds bringing our comfortable, lower dewpoint air will also bring some unstable cool air at higher altitudes. This could even generate a few widely scattered showers and thundershowers this afternoon (20% chance with only isolated light accumulations).

Clouds are expected, especially this evening. Expect cooler temperatures all the way down into the lower to middle 60s throughout the metro region.

Keep reading for the forecast through the holiday weekend.


Pleasantry persists. Highs in the middle 80s. After a relatively cool morning, temperatures will only peak toward the mid-80s throughout the region, but the big enhancer for nice day status will be those low humidities. West to southwest breezes are expected with some occasional cloud cover (but more sun than today).

A slight increase in humidity might be felt Wednesday evening, but temperatures should still drop into the middle to upper 60s (maybe near 70 in the District).


Thursday brings our journey back full circle with a new build-up of heat and humidity. High temperatures should be near 90 in the city and perhaps upper 80s in the suburbs. Southwest winds will increase humidity underneath partly cloudy skies.
Confidence: Medium-High

The holiday weekend is looking more and more like an opportunity for Mother Nature to show off her own fireworks. The weather models are now suggesting an impinging cold front on Independence Day that could spark more storms than previously forecast. Look for a 40% chance of thunderstorms with highs in the upper 80s. Saturday and Sunday look to be on the humid side too with partly cloudy skies, highs in the middle to upper 80s, and a daily 40% chance of thunderstorm activity.Confidence: Low to Medium

By Matt Rogers  | July 1, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: July 4th Forecast: Late-Day Storm Threat
Next: June Recap: Spectacularly Stormy


Have I said too much how gorgeous it is this morning?

Posted by: Murre | July 1, 2008 5:51 AM | Report abuse

65 degrees at National right now and only 58 at Dulles for our first morning of July. I agree with you!

Posted by: Matt Rogers, Capital Weather Gang | July 1, 2008 6:18 AM | Report abuse

Do we have to have thunderstorms EVERY DAMNED FOURTH OF JULY???

Posted by: Anonymous | July 1, 2008 6:57 AM | Report abuse

Can I just say how wonderful it is that on the first day of an 18% Dominion Electricty rate hike, I could turn off my A/C and still be comfortable? :-)

Posted by: thrilled | July 1, 2008 7:52 AM | Report abuse

AT LAST, I've got crew and plan to take the boat out on the Potomac after 3pm today! Seems like my actual risk of tstms is pretty slight...what kind of wind might there be? CBOFS shows it W and dropping to 5 kt or so around 5pm, but the NWS marine forecast calls it E winds 5-10 kt until midnight. They often do not agree! What does CWG say...what sort of wind can I expect on the upper tidal Potomac this afternoon/evening?

Posted by: ~sg | July 1, 2008 8:12 AM | Report abuse

If you don't like thunderstorms then move to California. I met a guy from California on Saturday and he said that he has only seen one thunderstorm in his entire life before he came to the east coast to visit.

Posted by: Anonymous | July 1, 2008 8:38 AM | Report abuse

When I saw the 4th forecast yesterday I knew it would change. Microbursts are a DC July 4th tradition! Keeps people from getting too comfortable on the Mall. :)

Posted by: rallycap | July 1, 2008 10:09 AM | Report abuse

Why can't Mother Nature cut us a flippin' break on the 4th? I am sick and tired of her pooping on our parade!

Posted by: Greg | July 1, 2008 10:20 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, just once can't we have 82 degrees, 100% sunshine, dewpoints in the forties on July 4th?

Posted by: Anonymous | July 1, 2008 10:26 AM | Report abuse seems like it rains everywhere on July 4th for some reason. I was visiting someone in South Carolina 2 Independence Days in a row, and both years they got a massive thunderstorm between 3 and 9 PM that dropped some outrageous amount of rain (I think the first storm was like 5.5" of rain in 6 hours, it was horrible).

Well, we don't have to worry about the rain. Due to certain rules where we live, people can call the fire department on us and say we're arsonists if we want to barbecue. But, if it does rain, hopefully it's over before everyone's fireworks and before it's too late to finish a cookout.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | July 1, 2008 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Gusts to 20mph at DCA? That is a bit outside what seems to be expected. Can CWG give me some idea of what the wind might do for the rest of the afternoon and evening?

Posted by: ~sg | July 1, 2008 11:28 AM | Report abuse

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