Forecast: A Hot, Unhealthy Weekend
Watching tropical depression off Carolina coast
Over the last four days the temperatures and humidity levels have slowly but relentlessly increased. Today and tomorrow, the miserable mix of heat and humidity may climax, as it will feel like 100 degrees both afternoons. Making matters worse, the air quality index will be code orange -- unhealthy for sensitive groups -- and the UV index will be very high. In other words, consider limiting prolonged (and/or strenuous) outdoor activity between noon and four if you're prone to succumbing to heat exhaustion, have asthma, or burn easily.
Hazy, hot, and humid. Mid 90s. Hot, tropical flow from the south and lots of sunshine will heat it up in a hurry today. By late morning, we should be up over 90, with mid 90s by mid-to-late afternoon. We may see a few cumulus clouds popping up this afternoon, but thunderstorm activity should be very limited (10% chance).
Muggy conditions overnight, with lows in the mid-to-upper 70s in the District and in the low 70s in the suburbs. Skies will generally be clear, although a few high clouds associated with the tropical depression off the Carolina coast may stream in.
Confidence: High
Tropical Update: A tropical depression (TD3) formed off the South Carolina coast last night. It is expected to move northeast and will produce wind and rain along the Carolina coast. It may strengthen enough to become a weak tropical storm (Cristobal). Consider delaying any travel to the Carolina Outer Banks for a day or two. The system should stay east of the Delaware/Maryland beaches but will probably generate some rough surf.
Keep reading for the forecast for Sunday into early next week.
TOMORROW (SUNDAY)
Continued sultry. Mid 90s. Tomorrow will be close to a repeat of today. Assuming TD3/Cristobal stay to our east (the most likely scenario), we should see a continuation of mostly sunny skies, with just a 20% of showers and storms as a cold front edges closer to the area. It will feel close to 100 degrees during the afternoon.
Another muggy night is in store overnight, with lows in the low 70s in the suburbs, 75-77 in the city.
A LOOK AHEAD
A slow moving cold will be in our vicinity both Monday and Tuesday, increasing cloud cover and afternoon/evening storm chances (30-40%). Nonetheless, it will remain very warm and humid, with highs in the low 90s both days. Confidence: Medium
By Jason Samenow |
July 19, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Forecasts
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Next: Bertha Back to Hurricane; 1,500 Rescues in O.C.
Posted by: El Bombo | July 19, 2008 11:44 AM
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TD 3 is now Cristobal. Tropical Storm Warning in effect to NC/VA border.
Posted by: CapitalClimate | July 19, 2008 1:53 PM
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94L looks quite interesting. Some of the models have it entering the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. If so, we could have another oil price spike on fears of reduced refining capacity.
Posted by: Brian in Alex | July 19, 2008 2:09 PM
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Observations: 87 F. Fair, warm & humid. Patchy altocumulus. dvisory per TWC for hot, humid conditions.
Bombocast forecast: Continued hot and humid; very slight chance (15%) of airmass thunderstorms this afternoon. Increasing high/middle cloudiness from south overnight as TD 3/Cristobal moves NNE off coast, approaching offshore Outer Banks. Tomorrow: Variable cloudiness, hot & humid, slight chance of PM airmass thunderstorm. High both days: 94-98 F; H.I. 100+ Low tonight 74-78 F; (cooler outside Beltway?) Caution against sunburn & heatstroke/heat exhaustion advised.
Best model solutions: Blend of ECMWF/GEFS. Monitoring of tropics also advised.