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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 07/22/2008

Forecast: Cooler Air Almost There

By Matt Rogers

We are just hours away from what should be our last 90-degree readings of this week. Believe it or not, after what will be seven straight days above the 90-degree threshold, we are finally seeing the end to this July heat wave and introducing a period of relatively cooler and more frequently wet weather conditions. The change catalyst this time is an upper level low pressure area swinging southeastward through the Great Lakes and headed very slowly this way. The first signs of this rainmaker arrive this evening with more clouds and evening thunderstorm opportunities.

TODAY (TUESDAY)

Hot and humid with one last push into the 90s. Evening thunderstorms too. The upper level low will slowly shift toward the area and introduce more cloud cover by afternoon. Temperatures should still jettison toward the middle 90s in the city and low-to-mid 90s in the suburbs. Also, look out for a 30% chance of scattered thunderstorms towards the evening hours.

More clouds than moon tonight with a healthy 50% likelihood of thunderstorms. Some weather models suggest storms even past midnight around the DC metro area. Lows in the lower 70s.

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend. See UnitedCast for the outlook for tonight's game.

TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY)

A Rainy Day? Showers and storms with highs in the middle 80s. Frequent opportunities for showers and thunderstorms are seen on Wednesday here with a fairly consistent cloud canopy overhead and high temperatures struggling to reach the middle 80s throughout the area. If heavier rains abound at midday, our high temperatures may be cooler than forecast.

More showers and storms are anticipated Wednesday night with the potential for heavy rainfall totals (perhaps an inch or more especially in the evening hours). Look for lows to drop into the lower 70s in the city and upper 60s in the suburbs.

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday and Friday are overall on the drier side, but there may be some scattered showers around on Thursday morning (30% chance). More likely will be shower activity along the beaches off to the east. Highs Thursday, under partly cloudy skies, should be in the more comfortable middle 80s. A bit more sun on Friday should yield upper 80s instead. Lows are in the upper 60s to near 70 again. Confidence: Medium

The weekend (as you would expect) is reintroducing threats for showers and thunderstorms. Right now, the best thinking is for highs in the middle to upper 80s with an around-the-clock 40% likelihood of those showers and storms. Overnight low temperatures should reach down into the upper 60s and lower 70s again. That upper level low should still be mostly dominant this weekend so temperatures should stay below the 90s threshold, but clouds will also be frequent visitors. Confidence: Low

By Matt Rogers  | July 22, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: UnitedCast: Kicking Up a Few Storms
Next: Alert: Watch, Warnings Issued as Storms Move In

Comments

Line of storms approaching NW Montgomery at this time.

Posted by: JT | July 22, 2008 8:42 AM | Report abuse

With a wall of storms like *that* --- how can it miss?!?

Posted by: Bikerjohn | July 22, 2008 8:47 AM | Report abuse

They have weakened already.

Posted by: JT | July 22, 2008 9:00 AM | Report abuse

There's another strong line in northern Virginia about to cross the Blue Ridge, heading east at 35 mph.

Posted by: Guillemot | July 22, 2008 9:19 AM | Report abuse

I am going on a week long sail down to Norfolk and back saturday-saturday... anything in particular I need to be on alert for? Other than the usual t-storms, of course.

Posted by: Anne | July 22, 2008 9:22 AM | Report abuse

Dark skies and rumbling thunder...an fairly impressive line of storms for a July morning...

Posted by: Fairfax Government Center | July 22, 2008 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Nice soaking rain coming through Gainesville, VA... Rumbles of thunder... Time for a nap...

Posted by: JD | July 22, 2008 9:52 AM | Report abuse

Well that was unexpected. Got very dark, and it looks like we have a nice soaker moving into Reston area.

Posted by: Andy | July 22, 2008 9:59 AM | Report abuse

A front is moving into Ballston from the west now; no rain or lightning, yet.

Anne, what are you sailing to Norfolk and back? Are you following the ICW or offshore?

Posted by: ~sg | July 22, 2008 10:07 AM | Report abuse

Rolling thunder, dark skies, and rain falling at a moderate rate in Ashburn at the moment. A great way to start the day.

Posted by: Model Monkey | July 22, 2008 10:11 AM | Report abuse

A new post was published at 10 a.m. focusing on these storms.

Posted by: Capital Weather Gang | July 22, 2008 10:26 AM | Report abuse

~sg, I will be going right down the bay, west side down and then east side back up starting and ending in Solomons. We are taking 3 boats- 39-foot Pearson sloop, 36-foot Columbia sloop and a 27-foot Watkins sloop.

Posted by: Anne | July 22, 2008 10:44 AM | Report abuse

Bombocast:

Current: Clearing after thunderstorm 10-11AM. 81F. 30.00. Cloud; increasing cumulonimbus followed by clearing.

Forecast: This afternoon and tonight: Warm, humid, possible thunderstorms [NOT desirable since tonight is a dance night @ Clarendon Ballroom w. Natty Beaux! Lightning risk is too high.] High ca. 93F Low ca. 72F. Tomorrow, possible rain risk, dependent on position of frontal boundary. High ca. 86F.

Principal hazards: severe weather, lightning.

Posted by: El Bombo | July 22, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

So we're going back into the June pattern we had with upper-level disturbances, cold pools, frequent fronts, and almost daily severe storms? Great....that's JUST what we need. More storm damage and power outages.

Posted by: Mike from Vienna | July 22, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

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