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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 07/23/2008

Forecast: Sweaty With Storms. Some Severe?

By Dan Stillman

Becoming sunny and less humid tomorrow

*Flash Flood Watch in Effect From 4 p.m. Through Late Tonight*

Several ingredients are in place that could spark some strong storms today. These include warm air, high humidity, an approaching cold front, and the jet stream dipping toward our area from the northwest. The wildcard, though, is sunshine, and whether we'll get enough of it to support severe weather such as damaging winds, hail or even a tornado.

TODAY (WEDNESDAY)

Warm and humid. Storms likely. 85-90. An approaching cold front along with warm and humid air gives us the potential for an active weather day. Showers and storms could strike at any time. Otherwise, it'll be very humid with a lot of clouds around. If some sun manages to break through during midday, then the stage could be set for some particularly strong or severe storms in the afternoon and evening. Depending on how much sun we see, highs should be in the mid 80s to near 90.

Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity may continue through midnight, maybe a couple hours past, before skies clear toward morning. Lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through weekend. See UnitedCast for the forecast for tonight's game (rescheduled from last night) at RFK.

TOMORROW (THURSDAY)

Becoming partly to mostly sunny. Less humid. Mid 80s. The morning could start off with lingering cloudiness and a shower, especially south and east of town. But by late morning, partly to mostly sunny skies should settle in for the day. What you'll notice most will be a significant drop in humidity from today as highs reach the mid 80s. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm isn't impossible during the afternoon or early evening, but most should stay dry.

Overnight, partly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 downtown, low-to-mid 60s in the burbs.

Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Mostly sunny on Friday with rising humidity but still not too bad. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

Shower and thunderstorm chances, as well as pretty high humidity, return to the forecast for Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. As of now, the day certainly doesn't look like a washout. I'd put the odds of seeing a shower or storm where you are at around 40%, with the best chance in the afternoon or evening. A good amount of clouds should hold highs in the 80s. Confidence: Medium

Will the front -- and thus clouds, shower and thunderstorm chances -- linger on Sunday? Or will drier air and sunshine work their way back in? I'm leaning toward the latter, with highs in the mid 80s, but it's too early to say for sure. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Dan Stillman  | July 23, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Dolly Makes Landfall in Texas; Winds Near 95 MPH

Comments

Dan predicts that showers and storms could strike at anytime today, but I'm predicting that they will hold off most of the day and here's why -- I usually do a 6-mile commute to Fort Belvoir on my bike, and because I wimped out today and *DROVE* all the way to work (a decision based on today's forecast) the sun will probably come out and we'll remain storm-free until after this evening's commute. Kinda like the reverse effect of washing your car...

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | July 23, 2008 8:21 AM | Report abuse

Looks like we won't be getting as much rain as originally forecast.

Posted by: Period | July 23, 2008 8:26 AM | Report abuse

Sure looks that way on radar this morning, Period. Come to think of it, I went to bed last night around 11:30 and radar was alight to the SW with lots of red and yellow moving toward the metro area, but I don't think any of it panned out. At least I didn't hear any thunder after going to bed.

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | July 23, 2008 8:31 AM | Report abuse

We need a fresh Unitedcast!

Posted by: JkR | July 23, 2008 8:51 AM | Report abuse

Where is all of this rain supposed to come from? All of the rain is well west of the area.

Posted by: Anonymous | July 23, 2008 9:46 AM | Report abuse

Been awhile...Busy with Dolly here at the Red Cross - not convinced that this is a Cat 1 Hurricane...pressure is too low (967 mb equates to a strong, let alone weak Cat 2) and the radar returns show a nearly perfect eyewall. Dolly is going to end up being a Cat 2 and will be just awful in Deep South TX and NE Mexico with the flooding...South Padre will remember this one..anyway, last night we got popped in the LoCo Bootheel - .75 inches in all and a lot of thunder, lightning and wind...first around 9pm and then much worse around 1230am. Very heavy rain and wind. Poor Baby ARC woke up during the heavier round - I went in to rub her back and tell her that its gonna be ok (try succeeding with that approach with a 7 month old) and during a flash of lightning, I saw her look up at me and saw the fear in her eyes for the first time in her life - poor kiddo! It was pretty loud, thats for certain.

Posted by: Dulles ARC | July 23, 2008 10:10 AM | Report abuse

The DC United game was postponed until today, the 23rd. Could you do another Unitedcast, please??? It would be much appreciated! Thanks!

Posted by: kris | July 23, 2008 10:20 AM | Report abuse

Period, VaStateofMind -- Kind of early to call today's rain/storm potential an under-performer when the flash flood watch doesn't even go into effect until this afternoon, no?

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | July 23, 2008 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Probably, Dan -- but the swath of rain to the west is moving northward into PA, the sun is coming out here at Belvoir (just as I feared), and I sure do wish I had rode my bike to work today... ;)

There is an extremely narrow squall line down in southern VA that seems to be "blooming" a bit and drawing a bead on our area as it moves northeast...

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | July 23, 2008 10:51 AM | Report abuse

Dan,

Just commenting on what I see on the radar. There was a hyoooooge swath of yellow and red coming straight at us last night and it just dissipated. I'm not saying that we won't get anything, just doesn't seem like as much.

I'm guessing the rain will just come out of nowhere?

Posted by: Period | July 23, 2008 11:00 AM | Report abuse

This is another nothing event. All of the precip is well west of the area and the sky is brightening in my area.

Posted by: Anonymous | July 23, 2008 11:02 AM | Report abuse

UnitedCast now posted immediately below this post on the main page. What a cursed game this United-Dynamo contest is!

Posted by: Capital Weather Gang | July 23, 2008 11:06 AM | Report abuse

I agree, this is starting to look like the last two summers, with much need rain missing us every time either to the north or the south. I just heard the Channel 7 forecasters on TOP calling for 1-2 inches this afternoon into tomorrow. I don't see that happening.

Posted by: Southside FFX | July 23, 2008 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Southside FFX and others -- The jury is still out on what will happen today and tonight. But you all are being rather hard -- and unfairly so, IMO -- on Mother Nature. Yes, rainfall is a little over an inch below normal for the month thus far. But the metro area has gotten dumped on quite a few times this summer, and precipitation amounts since June 1 and since Jan 1 are both above normal values.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | July 23, 2008 11:56 AM | Report abuse

No sun here in Bethesda.

Posted by: Storm-petrel | July 23, 2008 11:57 AM | Report abuse

We'll definitely get those storms today. My cat/barometer stayed in quite happily this morning. The other day when it was supposed to rain, he insisted on going outside and staying there. Did it rain? Nope.

Posted by: Katie and cat | July 23, 2008 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Dulles ARC, we got a powerful storm last night (1:30 a.m.) near Harpers Ferry. I'm surprised there was no warning for it, because the storm was about as bad as we ever get, esp. in terms of wind gusts. I can imagine your baby was scared--heck, I was!

Posted by: tinkerbelle | July 23, 2008 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Bombocast: Current: Cloudy. 84F. b. p. 29.99.

Forecast: This afternoon.Thundershowers, High 86. Tonight. Thunderstorms, rain. Low 73. Tomorrow Rain tapers off A.M. 80's.

Is the flood watch overdone??? Nothing of the sort is happening here at this time. Most of the rain is W of me and headed NE.

Posted by: El Bombo | July 23, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

I wonder where the rain will come from because it's definitely not coming from the WEST. Looks like it will just pass us... is this even possible? Wait... we live in the D.C. metro area. Of course it is.

Posted by: Period | July 23, 2008 1:26 PM | Report abuse

El Bombo -- The Flash Flood Watch issued by the National Weather Service doesn't go into effect until 4 p.m. They've issued the watch because of the potential for "training" -- storms repeatedly moving across the same path -- of strong thunderstorms later this afternoon or evening.

I don't think we'll see anything around here capable of producing flash flooding until later on this evening and tonight.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | July 23, 2008 1:42 PM | Report abuse

Do you think that it will be raining here around 5:00 PM?

Posted by: Period | July 23, 2008 1:48 PM | Report abuse

very yucky and humid out in capitol hill today...

Posted by: madison | July 23, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

I have to admit, I'm a bit skeptical about the rain, it looks like everything is west of us and sliding north. All this cloud cover doesn't seem to support lots of storms. Of course, I'm not an expert in any way, I hope I'm suprised :-)

Maybe you guys can talk about what will be the trigger for the predicted rain/storms in the afternoon update.

Posted by: Ana B | July 23, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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