Forecast: Sun and Showers for Sunday

By Brian Jackson

Somewhat unsettled conditions will continue today, and will persist through the first half of the week. At least a chance of rain remains in the forecast through Wednesday. Fortunately, it will rain neither everywhere nor all the time and rain chances drop after today. Temperatures will remain seasonable, generally reaching the 80s in the afternoon.

TODAY (SUNDAY)

Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop from Weather Underground. Click on image to expand, zoom and for other options. Refresh page to update.

Mostly cloudy and muggy with showers and storms, 80-85. There's not much good news to end this weekend with. Today still carries a solid chance (60%) for showers and storms across the area, particularly during the afternoon. These storms could produce some locally heavy rain -- especially just south of the metro area and towards the mountains. But it may not rain everywhere and there will be spots where the sun will successfully peek through mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will top out in the lower 80s as winds blow from the southeast at less than 10 mph.

Overnight, showers will stay with us through the evening hours, and then decrease in coverage after midnight. Lows will be near 70 degrees. A south wind will blow at around 5 mph.

Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek.

IMG_4395.jpg
July 4th afternoon by the Washington Monument. By Capital Weather Gang photographer Ian Livingston.

TOMORROW (MONDAY)

Still a chance for a T'storm, 84-88. A warm and humid airmass keeps the chance (40%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Monday. The sun may peek out occasionally but mostly cloudy skies will be the norm. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the upper 80s.

Monday night, showers should taper off with just a (20%) chance for rain overnight. Skies will again be mostly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s.

A LOOK AHEAD

Midweek should feature gradually improving conditions, especially on Tuesday. We'll be considerably drier, but I won't say rain-free. I'll hold a 10% chance for a shower or t'storm during the afternoon. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny and temperatures will be warm. Highs around 90.

On Wednesday, better chances for rain return to the forecast. There will be a 30% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm under mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

By Brian Jackson |  July 6, 2008; 5:00 AM ET Forecasts
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Comments

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"Successfully peek through", not peak.

Posted by: Anonymous | July 6, 2008 8:30 AM
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Thanks anonymous spelling police! -- now fixed.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | July 6, 2008 9:17 AM
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Very humid this morning; not much else going on. Sterling mentions diminished but persistent convection/thunderstorm risk thru Wed. as frontal boundary lifts north and dissipates tomorrow.

Bertha continues to pose a threat late in the week if recurvature does not proceed rapidly. Best bet is for strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. Ocean temps are not quite as warm as in late August, so the hurricane won't intensify much if it upgrades from tropical storm status. This storm is currently a threat to Bermuda, Bahamas and the East Coast but still can recurve.

Posted by: El Bombo | July 6, 2008 10:06 AM
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El Bombo, thanks for reminding me to check on Bertha. With her projected path, even this far out, it's time for me to start worrying.

Posted by: ~sg | July 6, 2008 10:56 AM
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And, they feel the need to chime in on every board, discussion, etc. Note to all spelling police: you are not wanted.

Posted by: I hate the spelling police. | July 6, 2008 12:16 PM
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Sunny this afternoon. 80 to 80+ degrees. My thermometer [near a brick wall] reads "90". No rain nearby but mass of activity in WV has Sterling talking "flash flood guidance". This rain seems to be tending NE and may not hit us directly. I hear that Stafford, Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg have been getting hit the most over the weekend.

NCEP/Camp Springs seems to think that Bertha could be trending to right or northward in a few days and might not come this far west. Biggest landfall threat could be to Bermuda. Storm still bears watching.

Posted by: El Bombo | July 6, 2008 3:48 PM
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The developing thunderstorms seem to be rotating counter clockwise as if a low is developing. You can't see it on the site radar but on the regional and national radar it is quite evident.

Posted by: JT | July 6, 2008 4:52 PM
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JT - are you referring to the Atlantic/Bertha or to the storms in our region now?

Posted by: Max | July 6, 2008 5:07 PM
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Max: ...I think JT is referring to the thunderstorms in our area...


and as of the 5PM advisory on Bertha, it is expected to curve closer towards Bermuda, so it appears that she is going to pose less of a threat to us.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | July 6, 2008 5:12 PM
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Let's not get uptight about the so-called "spelling police". I see nothing wrong with those of us who do each other a favor pointing out significant spelling and punctuation errors. Yes, it can sometimes get monotonous, but it can also define the meaning....and the intended meaning.....of the word itself.

Here's a good example: Lightning and Lightening. One could be mispelled and confused for the another. If you say there's LIGHTNING in the sky, that, of course, is a thunderstorm-induced electrical discharge. But if you say there is LIGHTENING in the sky, that simply means that the amount and color of the clouds is changing and getting less dark.....not necessarily anything to do with a thunderstorm.

There are many other examples as well, but I think you get the picture. And I welcome any corrections to any significant spelling errors I make...I certainly won't complain about them.

Posted by: Mike from Vienna | July 6, 2008 5:17 PM
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Obviously I was talking about the developing thunderstorms in our area. Those to the southwest and southeast.

Posted by: JT | July 6, 2008 5:20 PM
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You're right, it is very cloudy in areas. The weird thing about the rain is that it starts out weak, then heavy, then it suddenly stops, then suddenly the rain comes back really heavy!

Posted by: Amrit Singh | July 6, 2008 5:57 PM
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The skies just opened up here in Lake Ridge.

I was standing outside, about to take a picture of the really really dark cloud hanging over our building, when it opened up and got really bright. As I was typing this there was a faint clap of thunder in the distance. It's about time it started raining...it's only looked threatening for 2 days now...

Here is what it looked like just after a MINUTE of rainfall, this demonstrates how heavy and how fast it comes on:

(You can see a solid column of water coming out of the gutter in the lower right hand corner)

http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/7888/dscf0178li7.jpg

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | July 6, 2008 6:07 PM
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I just heard a clap of thunder just as "I don't mind if it rains a little" started coming out of the CD player. A few minutes ago we had a few seconds of large raindrops hit our skylight.

Posted by: Murre | July 6, 2008 6:31 PM
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OK, CWG. I LOVE this website and use it as my primary source of weather information. BUT...on so many of the posts here it seems that rain=bad and sun=good. That's bugging me.

The way it's been raining this summer those of us who shop at local farmers markets should see some unbelievably good produce. Tomatoes, for example, require an inch of rain a week AND abundant sun to grow well. This summer we've enjoyed so many days that have been both sunny AND rainy, the veggies should be fantastic.

Having fun outside is great, but so is eating. And you can't eat very well in a drought.

Posted by: Laura in NWDC | July 6, 2008 6:34 PM
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(Unless you experienced flooding, in which case your garden would also have suffered. But I'm trying to think in big picture terms here.)

Posted by: Laura in NWDC | July 6, 2008 6:36 PM
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It's pouring in Woodley Park right now.

Posted by: Woodley Park | July 6, 2008 6:36 PM
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More thunder and intermittent bursts of rain.

Posted by: Guillemot | July 6, 2008 6:43 PM
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Laura I've been posting on this site from the first day. You are correct and I think that those who are rain=bad, sun=good are for the most part the clueless who live in the city or in apartments and don't realize that our trees and plants need rain to survive the winter. Farmers need rain so you can eat, suburbanites need rain so their lawns can survive, and towns with their own water systems need rain to keep the aquifers full so water restrictions don't have to be enforced.

Posted by: JT | July 6, 2008 6:44 PM
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Somebody has to be out of power here in Chevy Chase. Simultaneous thunder/lightning a minute ago. For all I know it hit the lightning rod on our high rise.

Posted by: Laura in NWDC | July 6, 2008 7:01 PM
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It feels pretty wet here in Fairfax, VA but a Thunderstorm may develop. Darn.

Posted by: Amrit Singh | July 6, 2008 7:13 PM
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Tropical systems are not "he" or "she", even if they are given names. They are not living things with a gender. You'll notice that the Tropical Prediction Center does not refer to them by gender.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | July 6, 2008 7:55 PM
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Laura -- Thanks for the feedback. We realize rain is a good thing a lot of the time. But rain on a holiday weekend isn't viewed positively by most weather consumers -- and that's who we tend to cater to. Having said that, we'll keep your feedback in mind.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | July 6, 2008 8:12 PM
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At least it hasn't rained lately. I like the rain because it was pretty cool. Good for the environment too. Also, You are very correct Laura. Rain is great, mostly. I thought about that too but I don't usually post things like that. Good thinking!

Posted by: Amrit Singh | July 6, 2008 8:23 PM
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"You'll notice that the Tropical Prediction Center does not refer to them by gender."

Curmudgeon: Then why do they give them gender specific names?

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | July 6, 2008 8:32 PM
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A few rumbles of thunder here in Sterling, no rain. After seeing the radar, I think I've discovered the "Sterling Split"!

On a side note, I found where Bertha formed to be very interesting, as it was so close to Africa. Didn't a tropical storm hit Spain one year? I can't recall its name.

Posted by: Model Monkey | July 6, 2008 8:52 PM
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I remember Tropical Storm Bertha. I hope it does not hit North America even though it most likely will. Did Bertha hit Africa on the Western Coast or formed super close to it?

Posted by: Amrit Singh | July 6, 2008 9:02 PM
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Model Monkey -- I'm out here just west of 7 and 28, and it poured down rain here just after 8. Even heard a bit of thunder.

Posted by: Donna in Ashburn | July 6, 2008 9:30 PM
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Tropical Systems were originally only identified by latitude and longitude, which was confusing when there were several storms at once. The Army Phonetic Code was then used, and then for many years female names were used. I believe male names were used starting in the 1970s.

Once again, it is incorrect to refer to storms as "he" or "she". Weathercasters and others who do are mistaken, and sound uninformed.

Please contact the National Hurricane Center if you want clarification. I have, and the policy is that they are inanimate objects and should not be referred to as "he" or "she".

Posted by: Curmudgeon | July 6, 2008 10:15 PM
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Curmudgeon: Sorry for not following NHC policy. I'll refer to it next time I talk about tropical systems...

Amrit Singh: TS Bertha this year was the first storm to form as far east as IT did in the beginning of July.

Model Monkey: Tropical Depression Vince made landfall in Spain in 2005 ;)

Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | July 6, 2008 10:24 PM
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