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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 07/ 2/2008

Forecast: Will Fine Weather Last the Fourth?

By Dan Stillman

Nice today. But what about that front on the way?

Already, friends and family from far and wide are on their way to Washington for the holiday weekend. But it's a traveler meandering through the Upper Midwest today that piques our interest most. Because by tomorrow, our old friend the cold front will have reached the Midwest and Ohio Valley, on track for a date with D.C. come Friday the Fourth. Like any date, though, it's not easy to predict whether sparks -- in this case, showers and thunderstorms -- will fly.

TODAY (WEDNESDAY)

Sunny. Comfortable. Mid-to-upper 80s. If only this were the forecast for Friday: Sunny skies, low humidity and highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, with a light breeze from the west near 10 mph. Tonight, clear with lows in the upper 60s downtown, low-to-mid 60s in the burbs. As they say, that's good sleepin' weather.

Keep reading for the forecast through the holiday weekend, and check out our special July 4th forecast.

TOMORROW (THURSDAY)

Mostly to partly sunny. Near 90. We should stay in the sun for much of the day with humidity a notch higher -- but not awful -- and highs climbing to near 90. (Plan to drink plenty of water and wear sunscreen if you're headed to Tiger's Tourney.) A cold front beginning its approach from the northwest could throw some afternoon clouds our way, but any showers or thunderstorms should remain well north and west of the region.

Overnight, partly cloudy and mild with lows in the low 70s downtown, mid 60s in the burbs.

A LOOK AHEAD

As of now, Friday is looking like a typical July 4th around these parts -- partly sunny and rather humid with highs near 90 and maybe some hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon or evening. For more details see our special July 4th forecast. Confidence: Medium

Looks to me like the front will hand around on Saturday and Sunday, meaning partly to sometimes mostly cloudy skies and a chance of a shower here and thunderstorm there -- but not a washout -- throughout the weekend. Highs should be somewhere in the 80s. Confidence: Medium

The early outlook for Monday? I don't see much of a change in the weather pattern. Right now I'd call it partly sunny with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 and a 20-40% chance of p.m. showers and thunderstorms. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | July 2, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Does anyone remember the dire predictions of a summer-long drought early this spring? I haven't watered my garden yet this season. I know we still have to live through July and August-- my least favorite months around here, aside from being off from school-- but this has been a spectacular start to the summer.

Posted by: science teacher (Arnold) | July 2, 2008 8:21 AM | Report abuse

I think a "nice day" icon is in order...I know the temperature may get a bit high for the range, but such comfortable humidity levels make it feel phenomonal for July!

Posted by: Anonymous | July 2, 2008 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Yep, today was a close call for the Nice Day Sun, but strictly speaking highs need to be 65-85 to qualify, and there's a decent chance we surpass that.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | July 2, 2008 10:33 AM | Report abuse

Temperatures may get a bit too high, but humidity sure is low for this time of year!

Some cirrus and contrails observed this morning. Sterling mentioned this in their AM post. Weekend forecast looks good; I'd give it moderately high confidence. TWC continues thunder risk through Tuesday; Sterling thinks the stationary boundary will wash out after this weekend. Extended prelim. says heights will likely tend to rise, a harbinger of possible warm to hot weather next week. Code Orange anyone?

Right now I think most authorized fireworks displays are safe. "Individual" fireworks displays? Use strict caution where legal; don't try if illegal. Already at least one child has been burned by sparklers.

Posted by: El Bombo | July 2, 2008 10:52 AM | Report abuse

Looking forward to Winter!!!

Posted by: greg | July 2, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

it's a little too hot today - what happened to the nice weather from yesterday?

Posted by: madison | July 2, 2008 1:43 PM | Report abuse

regarding "nice" day icon .. one of my pals asked me what is meant by "mild"...
he lives in los angeles ..maybe you've already talked about this..
but he always thinks "mild" is meaningless but it's used all the time.. the same goes for "fair"

Posted by: eveg | July 2, 2008 10:42 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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