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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 08/26/2008

Forecast: A Winning Ticket -- Sun and Rain?

By Matt Rogers

Nice today, then after a long delay, the remnants of Fay

Yes, today is forecast to be a wonderful addition to our week with low humidity, cool northerly breezes, highs only near 80, and partly sunny skies. But the big item on the agenda is a chance to snap the deepening deficit of precipitation later this week. After a long time campaigning through the South, the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay are finally forecast to push into the D.C. area late Wednesday into Thursday. To be fair and balanced, one weather model is shifting Fay's rains into the Ohio Valley instead. The thinking right now though is that Fay wants to visit D.C., so let's cheer her onward!


Partly sunny. Near 80. Sunshine may be intermittent at times today with clouds around, but temperatures will be solidly comfortable, spending most of the day in the 70s with a peak somewhere near 80 in most locations. Look for nice northeasterly breezes.

Pleasant weather should continue tonight with lows dipping down toward the mid 60s in the city to well into the 50s in the outer suburbs. Partly cloudy skies.

Keep reading for the forecast through the Labor Day Weekend. See NatCast for the outlook for tonight's game and SkinsCast for Thursday's preseason game.


Clouds increase first, then rain chances. Upper 70s. Clouds should keep the daytime temperatures lower on Wednesday and showers/storms could begin their progression into the area as early as late morning, but more likely during the afternoon. Right now it looks to be about a 50% likelihood of precipitation during the second half of the day.

More showers and storms are expected to affect the metro area tomorrow night with lows down into the middle 60s mainly under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances continue close to 50%.


Note: NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) indicates several inches of rain are possible in the metro area through Saturday, with up to 5 inches in the mountains.

Thursday should be the main day for Fay with showers and storms more likely (around a 60% chance) and temperatures struggling to exceed the middle to upper 70s. The best chance for heavier downpours looks to be in the afternoon. And the sun should remain elusive most, if not all, day. Confidence: Low-Medium (due to the uncertain timing of Fay's remnants)

Friday should see some drying by the afternoon, but we cannot rule out some straggler showers that morning (30% chance). Look for morning lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s throughout the area. Partly sunny skies are possible by the afternoon. Confidence: Low-Medium

The holiday weekend is looking great from this early vantage point as Fay heads away just in time. There might be some shower chances on Saturday (30%), but otherwise dry weather, mostly sunny skies, and very comfortable temperatures look to be the main party platform, especially Sunday into Monday. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Matt Rogers  | August 26, 2008; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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What's up with all the cool weather we're having this month? Is this making up for the warm winters we've had the last few years? But still, I'll take only 80 degrees!

Hurricane Gustav has 85 MPH winds right now, and the track it's taking right now and predicted strength by the weekend is scary...they expect it (as of 5AM) to have 115 MPH winds (Cat 3 strength) when it pops out in the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico.

We also have to keep an eye on Invest 95, because the computer models on Wunderground have the general track of this wave going in a general NW direction. It'll probably curve out to sea or dissipate, but still worth watching.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | August 26, 2008 7:26 AM | Report abuse

Feels downright tropical outside right now? Are we under the influence of a southernly flow?

Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang | August 26, 2008 7:56 AM | Report abuse

Does CWG concur with the forecast for winds to drop enough around mid-day to allow me to trust the lifting of the Small Craft Advisory at noon? CBOFS calls for steady NE winds of about 10kt through the afternoon, not dropping lower until 7:00pm or so. I'd like to take advantage of the breeze while I can, if it's not too gusty...

Posted by: ~sg | August 26, 2008 8:20 AM | Report abuse

Gustav up to 90 mph at latest advisory, Category 2 possible today.


Posted by: CapitalClimate | August 26, 2008 8:26 AM | Report abuse

Temp 69, dewpoint 51 is hardly tropical.


Posted by: CapitalClimate | August 26, 2008 8:34 AM | Report abuse

Capital Climate, I didn't mean tropical in heat/humidity (as there is hardly any of that), just that the air just has a "tropical storm feel" to it. Even before I paid attention that we might be getting some of Fay's remnants, I had that feeling.

Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang | August 26, 2008 9:18 AM | Report abuse

Any chance of getting that promised sun? GOES imagery shows it clear north of the PA line, but that Fay moisture continues to advance. Still socked in with clouds here in Chantilly..

Posted by: CM | August 26, 2008 10:39 AM | Report abuse

sg -- Winds should be settled down at about 10 mph for the rest of the day.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | August 26, 2008 10:56 AM | Report abuse

CM -- Clouds are hanging in tougher than expected, especially from D.C. and south. Still, skies should brighten as the day goes on with at least some breaks of sun.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | August 26, 2008 11:14 AM | Report abuse

Doesn't seem to me that the clouds are going to break up much. You sure about that partly sunny forecast?

Posted by: Model Monkey | August 26, 2008 11:24 AM | Report abuse

Thank you, Dan!

Posted by: ~sg | August 26, 2008 12:22 PM | Report abuse

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