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Posted at 4:00 PM ET, 08/16/2008

Fay Could Become Formidable

By Jason Samenow

Storm may strike Florida Monday night and Tuesday

Remember way back to Tuesday morning when I mentioned the possibility of tropical disturbance developing and affecting Florida or the Southeast next week? Well, said disturbance became Tropical Storm Fay yesterday evening near the Dominican Republic. It currently has maximum of winds of 45 mph and is positioned just south of the east coast of Cuba.

Tropical Storm Fay as of 10 a.m. this morning. Courtesy NOAA

Keep reading for more details on Fay. See our full forecast for local weather.

Fay is currently over very warm water and rapid intensification is possible. On the other hand, the storm's interaction with land as it passes over or adjacent to Cuba could temper any possible strengthening. The National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will reach hurricane intensity before striking Florida but emphasizes intensity forecasts are very uncertain.

Powered by hurricane-tracking software from Pan, zoom, and click on points along the storm's projected track for intensity forecasts.

Forecast models mainly take the storm up the west coast of Florida between Monday night and Wednesday. However, there is large uncertainty in this track because the hurricane hunter aircraft have had difficulty finding the storm's center of circulation.

Whether the remnants of Fay make into the D.C. area is an open question. It will be generally headed in our direction late next week. However, an area of high pressure parked to our north may keep it south of our region. We'll keep you posted.

By Jason Samenow  | August 16, 2008; 4:00 PM ET
Categories:  Tropical Weather  
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The "hurricane-tracking software" link under the map is messed up. It has a comma where the period should be. It's "www," instead of ""

Part of me wants the remnants to come through here to spice things up a bit, and another part of me says NOOOOOOOO GO AWAY because of the possible tornado threat if it comes through. Ugh.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | August 16, 2008 6:52 PM | Report abuse

Good post! Looks like I don't have to say anything. :-(

Posted by: Model Monkey | August 16, 2008 8:27 PM | Report abuse

West Springfield (Accotink Lake/Mixing Bowl):
Thursday storm: 0.03"
Saturday storm: 0.04"

oooh boy

Posted by: Bikerjhn | August 16, 2008 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Mom lives in Bradenton Fl
She has her Hurricane shutters up.
Last year she moved from a beachfront, barrier island home to a home 8 miles from the coast
and 20 years newer standards of constuction.

I will post what she says about the storm.

Posted by: Alexandrian | August 16, 2008 11:25 PM | Report abuse

No remnants of Fay here, please! Depending on the strength of any remnants, I have to strip down the boat (even remove the mast) and worry through it.

Posted by: ~sg | August 17, 2008 12:26 AM | Report abuse

All I know is the above track looks awfully good for the "desert Southeast," which remains in the grips of a slightly eased but still highly significant drought. Lake levels and such in northern Georgia and South and North Carolina remain extremely low. Even in my area, and indeed, many areas beginning just south of DC, moderate drought continues to prevail.

So, I will personally be hoping very much the remnants cross Georgia and head this way.

Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | August 17, 2008 2:24 AM | Report abuse

We don't really need the rain from Fay up here since we are above average for the year [with too many thunderstorm days///global warming!!! already]. We seem to be on track for ca. 40-45 thunderstorm days; normal number is 27.

Posted by: El Bombo | August 17, 2008 11:18 AM | Report abuse

Re "above average" rainfall:
Nearly all of MD and VA are substantially below average for the last 30, 60, and 90 days, and VA isn't looking too great at 180 days, either. For 30 days, large sections of VA are less than 25% of average.

Posted by: CapitalClimate | August 17, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

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