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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 08/18/2008

Forecast: A Hint of Heat

By Jason Samenow

Fay's remnants *may* bring late week rain

For the first time in almost two weeks, afternoon highs should rise above 90 today. We'll have another hot one over 90 tomorrow, before 80s return for the rest of the week. While August has been somewhat cooler than average, it's also been quite dry with most places receiving less than half their average rainfall. Dry weather will likely persist until the end of the week when the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay may impact the region.

TODAY (MONDAY)

Mostly sunny, very warm. 89-93. The week will start off on a nice note but maybe a little hot for some people. High pressure overhead will mean mainly clear skies and the August sun should help temperatures cross the 90 threshold in most locations. Humidity levels will be low to moderate taking an edge off the heat.

Clear skies overnight with lows in the mid-to-upper 60s in the city to near 60 in the suburbs.

Keep reading for the forecast through the week.

TOMORROW (TUESDAY)

Mostly sunny and hot. 91-95. Tomorrow will most likely be the hottest day of the week. An abundance of sunshine will boost temperatures into the low 90s. Fortunately, humidity levels will remain tolerable, with dew points around 60. You may notice some high clouds increasing towards the evening.

Overnight, a cold front will pass through the area, but with just a few clouds and no rain. Lows will fall into the mid 60s downtown and close-in, and to near 60 in the cooler suburbs. Winds will become from the northeast at about 5-10 mph.

Confidence: High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday may be the nicest day of the week with low humidity and temperatures about 5-7 degrees cooler than Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures should reach the mid 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies and a wind from the north. Confidence: Medium-High

Humidity levels likely creep up on Thursday as winds become southerly. No rain is expected and highs should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Confidence: Medium

Friday through Sunday will probably be warm and humid with temperatures mainly in the 80s to near 90. The remnants of Tropical Storm Fay could affect the region during this period although the exact track of the storm and timing are uncertain. If we do experience effects from Fay (40% chance), temperatures may not be quite as warm due to cloud cover and rain. Current guidance suggests the heaviest rain may fall to our west but that we could be in a region prone to squally weather and scattered strong thunderstorms. Stay tuned for updates in the coming days. Confidence: Low

By Jason Samenow  | August 18, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Jason:

We can only pray for the remnants of Fay to come our way. Many of us desperately need the rain.

Unfortunately, it is looking more likely that high pressure now building across the northern Great Lakes will translate to a blocking position in the Atlantic and effectively inhibit the northward movement of this system. The movement may become very erratic or even stall. Rain, if any over our area from what is now Fay may possibly be a week or more away.

This is of course all subject to change but the past 24 hr. guidance trend is not our friend, regarding rain from Fay.

54 degrees at 7:30.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | August 18, 2008 7:43 AM | Report abuse

Here comes another lecture from El Bombo on our selfish quests for green suburban lawns. The irony of his equally selfish quest for an umbrella-free life seems to be lost on him.

My hope is that any remnants of Fay bring a steady but not overwhelming rain. A huge dump in a short period of time wouldn't help crops much due to run off (and would do more damage to the Bay). A huge dump would help replenish reservoirs in the lower Southeast however, which is much needed.

Posted by: Southside FFX | August 18, 2008 9:16 AM | Report abuse

Tropical storms often are drought busters and can alter the weather patterns. In my area of NW Montgomery and SW Frederick County I could draw a line around the areas that have had almost no rain in nearly a month by simply looking at brown lawns, yellowed and wilting corn crop, and dry fields. And yet other areas close by have adequate rain proven by the crops in the field and green pastures.

Some don't understand the importance of rain at this time of the year. Not only does it refresh the aquifers but the rain is necessary for the shrubs and some trees to survive the winter.

Posted by: JT | August 18, 2008 11:16 AM | Report abuse

A personal vocalization on when Fay's rain MAY materialize; if at all. I wonder how displaced from Fay's center the rain shield may become. Low level centers can slow down and lag in motion speed after a tropical system makes landfall. I suppose it is possible that rains from Fay could reach us well before the end of the week--since I am not sure models are taking into account this displacement: between Fay's inland center of circulation and the main rain shield that will be north & east of the center of circulation... just a pondering. Thoughts from others?

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | August 18, 2008 11:55 AM | Report abuse

Camden, I'd like to agree. A look at the chart for Fay from 2 AM this morning (having trouble getting NHC currently, could be this connection) shows the storm being in s.w. VA. I'd like to figure the bulk of the moisture would be north and east of that. Historically, models do poorly in regards to tropical systems, especially this far out.

Posted by: Havoc | August 18, 2008 12:09 PM | Report abuse

Why do some folks keep wishing for rain??? Aren't we above normal on the year to begin with??? Somewhere I heard we were FOURTEEN INCHES above normal as of 8/1!!! Anyway, we're in considerably better shape than at this time last year! Nonetheless after being promised a DRY week until what's left of Fay gets here Friday or Saturday, someone is already threatening tomorrow night's swing dance with thunder & lightning! [Since it's only 30% let's hope it doesn't hit.Always on a dance night; I'm beginning to get tired of this!]

Current, Clear, 85F. 29.95

Posted by: El Bombo | August 18, 2008 12:22 PM | Report abuse

Actually I tend to agree with Southside FFX on the need for a steady "soaker" as opposed to the "thunderboomers" we've been getting recently. Around my place we are rather dry again after two such thunderstorms in the past week. Each storm dropped about a quarter inch or so. Carrying an umbrella around is fine; it's the "lightning-rod" nature of lugging one around in a thunderstorm that's frightning. If Fay reaches us, much of the rain won't come in the form of thunderstorms unless the center passes west of us. We have to remember "Ivan" back in 2004.

Posted by: El Bombo | August 18, 2008 1:06 PM | Report abuse

I am heading to the Outter Banks this weekend - any thoughts on if Fay will stall and ruin my weekend?

Posted by: Hode | August 18, 2008 4:47 PM | Report abuse

Obviosly Bombo either cannot read or doesn't care to read. His endless rants about how rain disrupts his little life are getting tiring. Check the the posts directed to you in the last day Mr. Bombo.

Posted by: NOTMB | August 18, 2008 6:22 PM | Report abuse

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