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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 08/25/2008

Forecast: Rain Chances Ramp Up

By Jason Samenow

Our 10-day dry streak has a one-in-three chance of ending today when a passing cold front possibly scatters some afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the metro region. If we don't manage to receive any rain today, odds increase Wednesday-Friday as Fay's remnants may gradually drift into our area. The way it looks now, tomorrow and Sunday stand the best chances of being totally dry.


Very warm, slight chance of P.M. storm. 88-92. Before the cold front passes this afternoon, it will be borderline hot and just a little humid. Many areas will flirt with 90 under partly sunny skies. Shower and thunderstorm chances are just 1-in-3 due to limited moisture associated with the approaching front.

Skies gradually clear overnight, with lows dropping to the mid 60s downtown and near 60 in the cooler suburbs.

Keep reading for the forecast through the week.


Beautiful. 80-85. Like many days this August, we'll have remarkably refreshing, dry air flowing in from the north. A delightful northerly breeze will blow at about 10 mph, accompanied by a mix of clouds and sun. High temperatures will most likely reach the low 80s, with humidity levels quite low thanks to dew points in the mid 50s.

Overnight, the combination of clear skies and dry air will allow temperatures to fall into the 50s in the cooler suburbs, and still comfortable low-to-mid 60s downtown and close-in.

Confidence: High


On Wednesday , the refreshing, dry air is likely to be pushed out by a warm front advancing from the south. The timing of the warm front's passage is unclear as the cooler, dry air will try to hang tough. The most likely time for the warm front to come through the area is during the afternoon, and it may (40% chance) be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms, especially towards evening and overnight. This rain could be enhanced by the remnants of Fay. Highs will likely range from 80-85.

Rain showers fed by the remnants of Fay could (40% chance) continue into Thursday and perhaps part of Friday. These showers will likely be somewhat scattered and episodic as opposed to a widespread, constant deluge. High temperatures both days should be around 80. Confidence: Low-Medium

As the slow-moving remnants of Fay move off, rain showers should diminish in coverage and intensity during the day on Friday, producing a short period of calm late Friday into the middle part of the Saturday. Late Saturday, a cold front may sweep through the region, generating late day and evening storms (30% chance). Highs Saturday should be in the mid 80s. Confidence: Low-medium

Although a long ways off, high pressure has a decent shot of building into the region by Sunday, meaning a return of sunshine and comfortably dry air. Highs should be in the low 80s. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | August 25, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Last gasp of summer today methinks barring a heat wave in Septembmer like the one in June

Posted by: Anonymous | August 25, 2008 10:19 AM | Report abuse

I performed a Rain Dance early this morning!

This should bring moisture our way during the next 1-3 days.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | August 25, 2008 10:36 AM | Report abuse

Anyone want to blind-forecast "no temperatures >90F for the rest of 2008 at DCA" yet? (After today...)


Posted by: Bikerjohn | August 25, 2008 10:44 AM | Report abuse

Anyone want to give a Labor Day weekend forecast for Blackwater Falls in West Virginia? I know the temps are looking good. Just worried about the rain.

Posted by: Sara In Oakton | August 25, 2008 11:44 AM | Report abuse

Current: 89F, 29.98f, Ac and Cs this morning.

Bikerjohn, it's too early. Historically, we've seen 90F or above as late as Oct. 11. We may have one or two heat waves next month but they should be rather short in duration.

Posted by: Anonymous | August 25, 2008 12:44 PM | Report abuse

Correction: That 12:44PM posting is mine, this computer won't let me "repost"! I don't like to post "anonymous", but sometimes this computer overrules me!

Posted by: El Bombo | August 25, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Reconnaissance flight has reported estimated peak winds up to 47 mph with what is now TD 7:
Gustav Getting Going?


Posted by: CapitalClimate | August 25, 2008 1:44 PM | Report abuse

Tropical Storm Gustav has formed, with maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH.

Posted by: Model Monkey | August 25, 2008 2:17 PM | Report abuse

Anyone else noticing a few leaves are starting to change ? My mums are getting buds too....Fall is just around the corner.

Posted by: Jenn in Reston | August 25, 2008 10:29 PM | Report abuse

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