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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 08/13/2008

Forecast: Ridiculously Nice Weather Retreats

By Dan Stillman

Humidity stays mostly in check, storm chances back

My fellow CWG forecasters have used "splendid," "gold medal, "magnificent," "superb," "beautiful," "picture perfect" and "worry-free" to describe our recent stretch of ridiculously nice weather (sorry... I was feeling left out). Praise probably won't be quite so high for the rest of the week and weekend. But I don't see it going to the other extreme, either. Adjectives ranging from "adequate" to "perfectly nice" should do the trick.

TODAY (WEDNESDAY)

Partly sunny. Not too humid. P.M. shower/thunderstorm chance. Mid 80s. The perfect weather of the past two days is interrupted today by increasing afternoon clouds, a slight rise in humidity (but still low for August), and a 30% chance that you'll see an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. But all in all, partly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s will make for a pretty decent day before the chance of rain arrives.

Tonight, a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms continues with partly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 60s downtown, low-to-mid 60s in the suburbs. More significant rain associated with a storm that will be off the Virginia-North Carolina coast should stay well east of the area.

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend. And see NatCast for tonight's game at Nationals Park.

TOMORROW (THURSDAY)

Partly sunny. Humidity unchanged. P.M. shower/thunderstorm chance. Mid 80s. Not much changes for tomorrow. We're looking at a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 80s, humidity about the same as yesterday, and another 30% chance of seeing some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Overnight, we keep some clouds around along with the 30% chance shower/storm threat. Lows in the upper 60s in the city, low-to-mid 60s in the burbs.

A LOOK AHEAD

The beat goes on Friday with some sun, some clouds, and highs in the mid 80s. You might feel a touch of humidity but nothing major. Afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances jump higher -- to about 50 percent. Confidence: Medium

I know this is gonna sound like I'm phoning it in, but I really don't see much changing for the weekend: Partly sunny, not too humid, highs in the 80s, and a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | August 13, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

What is the CapWx rationale for a relatively high 50% chance of showers on Friday? The highest I've seen on any other outlet is 30%.

There doesn't seem to be a mechanism in place to generate a higher probability than 30%.

What say you?

Posted by: Ivan | August 13, 2008 8:01 AM | Report abuse

Is anyone else not seeing temperatures displayed on weatherbonk.com? Yesterday evening and this morning I am not seeing them.

Posted by: Murre | August 13, 2008 8:06 AM | Report abuse

Ivan, some of the model runs over the past couple days showed good PoPs (percent chance of precip/thunderstorms) for Friday. The most recent runs have pulled back a bit. If that trend holds, then will probably scale back the percentage.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | August 13, 2008 8:23 AM | Report abuse

Is there any explanation for this Ridiculously Good Weather? It seems odd that we're having such mild temperatures during, what is usually, the hottest month!


Posted by: Mike | August 13, 2008 8:27 AM | Report abuse

Payback for all those disgusting Augusts of the past?

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | August 13, 2008 8:39 AM | Report abuse

August is not the hottest month. That is an urban legend that seems to persist.

Posted by: JT | August 13, 2008 8:48 AM | Report abuse

Maybe August just feels like the hottest month because it's been hot for so long and we are saturated. Like how February feels so cold just cause you're just sick of being cold.

Or at least, that's how it is for me.

Posted by: Laura in NWDC | August 13, 2008 9:45 AM | Report abuse

Or does it feel hotter because the average relative humidity is higher? Maybe August is the hottest month when you factor in the heat index?

Posted by: Laura in NWDC | August 13, 2008 10:54 AM | Report abuse

Hate to point this out, but according to published data, both July and August hold the record high temperatures recorded in Washington, DC - 106 F - and the average high for July is 88 while August is 86... I'm wiling to call it a draw - August is HOT.

SO, seriously, will/can someone answer my question? Is there a particular reason why our current temperatures are on the cooler side of average? I dunno, maybe some odd phenomenon, or a strange ocean current, or perhaps something along the lines of Global Cooling?

THANKS.

Posted by: Mike | August 13, 2008 11:32 AM | Report abuse

For Mclean:

On average, the warmest month is July.
The highest recorded temperature was 105°F in 1997.
On average, the coolest month is January.
The lowest recorded temperature was -11°F in 1985.
The most precipitation on average occurs in May.

Source: weather.com

Posted by: Zwther | August 13, 2008 12:05 PM | Report abuse

Mike -- AccuWeather.com has some basic thoughts on your question, as well as a more in-depth look.

Posted by: Capital Weather Gang | August 13, 2008 12:11 PM | Report abuse

Today's temperature is only 0.5° below the average for the date. The month to date is +0.2°.

Posted by: CapitalClimate | August 13, 2008 5:46 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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