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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 08/17/2008

Forecast: Warm and Dry, Again and Again

By Brian Jackson

Effects from Fay on Friday?

By Brian Jackson

The upcoming forecast is, quite frankly, a repetitive one. I apologize beforehand for sounding like a broken record. High pressure will hold at least through Wednesday meaning sunny and warm will be the norm. Homeowners should prepare to do some heavy-duty lawn watering this week. Our next cold front approaches on Wednesday but will not be strong enough to squeeze any moisture out of our dry air mass. Will the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay break our dry spell late in the week?

TODAY (SUNDAY)

Pleasant and warmer, some afternoon clouds. 85-90. Mostly clear weather continues today as this spell of warm and dry weather continues. Some cumulus clouds may build during the afternoon but we will stay dry. Afternoon highs will approach 90 with humidity levels remaining pretty low. Winds will be light.

Overnight, we'll stay mostly clear and comfortable. Lows will drop to the low to mid 60s and winds will be out of the south-southwest at 3-7 mph.

Keep reading for the forecast through the middle of next week. See NatCast for the outlook for today's game.

TOMORROW (MONDAY)

Sunny and warm. 88-92. No reason to change the forecast much tomorrow as sunny skies will again prevail across the area. Temperatures may get back up into the 90s during the afternoon. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

Monday night, skies will remain mostly clear. We can't really complain about that fact as it will allow temperatures to cool back into the comfortable mid 60s.

A LOOK AHEAD

On Tuesday, mostly sunny skies will lead to our warmest day of this period. Humidity will remain low however, so it will still be quite a pleasant day. Afternoon highs should reach the low to mid 90s. Confidence: Medium-High

Wednesday brings somewhat of a change, though not much. A weak cold front will move through but it the lack of moisture and weak forcing means we won't see any rain. What we will see is a mix of clouds and sun, and highs in the upper 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

It's still unclear whether what's left of Tropical Storm Fay will impact our area. If it does, it would most likely be in the Friday to Saturday time frame.

By Brian Jackson  | August 17, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

I really hope whats left of TS Fay does reach our CWA with enough convection left from it to bring us some T-Storms. Rain would be nice as well, as my grass is all but dead.

Posted by: Havoc | August 17, 2008 10:47 AM | Report abuse

But, please see my post under "Fay" below; we're above average rainfall for the year. Too many folks want "nice green manicured" lawns and mess up our lawn ecology with cricket-killing "pesticide treatments", weed-whackers, and the like. They are even killing off WHITE CLOVER, an ESSENTIAL FEATURE of a healthy lawn! It's August and I enjoy the songs of the cicadas, katydids, crickets and grasshoppers, and the bees humming in the clover and goldenrods. Let's not ruin things with our quest for sterile suburban "lawns".

Currently 81F, 30.08, rising, mostly clear with some high cloud to the south. Can't specify cloud type right now, probably Cs or As, possibly Ac.

Posted by: El Bombo | August 17, 2008 11:38 AM | Report abuse

You might be "above average" in your rainfall downtown El Bombo but I assure you that is not the case for everywhere. Until the brief storm on Thursday I went twenty-four days without rain. There is also more to life than green lawns. The corn in my area, which was once green and growing, is yellowed and the husks are not well-formed. People also depend on wells in this area. While the wells certainly have not run dry people in the areas of drought are experiencing lower water pressure.

I think that I could go without your lectures since the amount of rain does not affect your city life at all besides which umbrella to select.

Posted by: JT | August 17, 2008 3:26 PM | Report abuse

RE: "above average rainfall"

Hydrologically speaking, we are not above average. Come to Montgomery County, and look at how low many of the creeks and streams are. Look at how dead my grass is. And don't talk down to me as if I'm on some kind of quest for lush green lawn perfection.
I could care less how it looks, I'm just using it as refrence to how dry things are.

Posted by: Havoc | August 17, 2008 5:26 PM | Report abuse

As noted in the Fay thread, JT and Havoc are correct for large portions of VA and MD.

Posted by: CapitalClimate | August 17, 2008 5:47 PM | Report abuse

And even the earlier over-achieving National Airport will be going negative since June 1 if nothing falls in the next 3 days. (Month-to-date is down by over 2/3 from average so far.)

Posted by: CapitalClimate | August 17, 2008 5:52 PM | Report abuse

While we are currently at a rainfall surplus for the year and this season. This is mostly due to a very wet late spring. We are nowhere near drought conditiosn either as June and July have been near normal. The thing to remember here is this recent stretch of warm, dry weather. We haven't seen much of the upper 90's that we saw earlier this summer, we also haven't seen much humidity lately either. This has led to our recent dry spell, so while I don't think we need a tropical storm to come our way, we could definately use a few summer showers.

Posted by: Brian, Capital Weather Gang | August 17, 2008 6:22 PM | Report abuse

Brian:

I couldn't disagree with you more,unless you are only referring to the immediate D.C. area !

The D.C. area is an outlier regarding rainfall year to date. Yes, it is true that DC still enjoys a 4-8 inch surplus, but most of that surplus was lost during runoff from the very heavy episodes of rainfall several months ago.

Most of Va. except near D.C., is far below normal for the year. The central Shenandoah Valley is averaging 10 - 15 inches below normal, year to date. Lynchburg is standing at 10.92 inches below normal.

Historically, Va. receives it's most beneficial rainfall during a dry summer from decaying tropical systems which can drop several inches of widespread rainfall without excessively high winds.

Nothing could be more beneficial moisture wise than for Fay to move N.N.E. from N.W. Florida through the S.E. states and slowly through Va. as a T.D. dropping 3-5 inches of much needed soaking rainfall over a 36-48 hr. period.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | August 17, 2008 9:22 PM | Report abuse

Jim I couldn't agree with you more. The city dwellers have no idea what is going on outside the beltway.

Posted by: JT | August 17, 2008 9:27 PM | Report abuse

I must say I'm not really sure what you are disagreeing with. The whole point was that the "surplus" isn't really that telling, and that the area could use some rainfall.

Posted by: Brian, Capital Weather Gang | August 17, 2008 10:52 PM | Report abuse

BRIAN:

WE DO NEED A TROPICAL STORM WITH THE VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN TO COME OUR WAY. MANY OF US ARE ALREADY IN AN AGRIUCULTURAL DROUGHT, SOME ARE IN A HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT CONDITION. SUMMER SHOWERS DO VERY LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THIS TYPE OF CONDITION.

THESE ARE MY DISAGREEMENTS.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | August 18, 2008 7:07 AM | Report abuse

I think that most were disagreeing with Bombo who was lecturing some of us on being selfish and only wanting rain for our "suburban lawns".

Posted by: JT | August 18, 2008 8:00 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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