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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 09/30/2008

Forecast: A Rumbler Then a Tumbler

By Matt Rogers

T'storms possible today; temperature plummet to follow

Well, we've recently had a taste of summer-like tropical humidity, now we're just a day away from a full serving of crisp, dry fall. Southerly winds ahead of a cold front today should allow temperatures to be on the warm side of normal and could pop a few thunderstorms around the area this afternoon and evening. After that, temperatures will spiral downward. By week's end, we should be feeling the coolest weather of the season so far. So get your light jackets ready.

TODAY (TUESDAY)

Increasing clouds, scattered t'storms. Around 80. Mostly cloudy skies are expected today as southerly winds pump a little more moisture and warmth into the region. Highs should range from the upper 70s to possibly the lower 80s in typically warmer spots (that includes our fair city). Thunderstorms and showers may pop up this afternoon into the evening hours. Probability of storms is only about 40%. Chances increases the farther to the north and northeast you go.

Tonight should see a continued 40% chance of showers or maybe a brief thunder rumble with low temperatures expected in the 50s throughout the D.C. metro area.

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend!

TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY)

Chance of showers. Cooling commences. 70-74. Clouds should again fill the skies Wednesday with scattered showers (30% chance) possible especially during the morning as the cold front slowly passes to our east. Winds will feel as though they are bringing cooler air to the area (and they will be!) as they shift to out of the northwest early in the day. Some sunshine may emerge in the afternoon. Highs should be in the low-to-mid 70s.

On Wednesday night, we'll try to shake those pesky clouds, but may not completely succeed. Lows should take a fall toward the lower 50s in the city and upper 40s in the suburbs away from town (especially north and west side).

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday and Friday should feature similar weather overall with temperatures mostly in the 60s both days (maybe hitting 70 in D.C. on Thursday) and lows down down down into the lower 40s in the outer suburbs to near 50 in the city. Despite a fair amount of sunshine, there may be a few clouds around each afternoon, and even enough instability to squeeze out an isolated shower or two. So we need to keep a running 20% chance of precipitation through this period. Confidence: Medium

The first weekend of October should see some temperature recovery, especially on Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 60s to around 70 should characterize Saturday, but some clearing and temperatures higher into the 70s should be featured on Sunday. Look for continued cooler lows Saturday morning from the 40s suburbs to 50s in the city interior with mainly 50s for lows by Sunday morning (or upper 40s outer suburbs). Confidence: Medium

By Matt Rogers  | September 30, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

SPC mentions possible severe weather and isolated supercells this afternoon. Low odds on both, but something for this time of year.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | September 30, 2008 8:23 AM | Report abuse

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