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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 09/ 8/2008

Forecast: Week Begins with Summer Warmth

By Jason Samenow

Taste of Fall Two Days Away

Highs in the 70s. If you didn't need enough reminders that the summer blew by way too fast, the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday might be the dagger. But before the crisp fall-like air overtakes the region, warm weather fans can soak in two more days of near-90 degree heat. A round of possible thunderstorms late Tuesday will mark the transition between our present warmth and the coolness to come.

TODAY (MONDAY)

Mostly sunny, very warm. Mid-to-upper 80s. High pressure overhead means a ton of sunshine area-wide. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s with moderate humidity levels. We won't have much in the way of wind.

Overnight, a wind from the south will kick in, increasing cloud cover and humidity levels. With the flow of warm, moist air, overnight lows will only fall to near 70 in the city, with mid 60s in the suburbs. Kind of muggy.

Keep reading for the forecast through the week.

TOMORROW (TUESDAY)

Very warm, late day storms. Upper 80s. Through the mid-to-late afternoon, we'll have partly cloudy skies and warm, humid conditions. Temperatures will steadily rise through the 80s. By late afternoon, a strong cold front will swing through the area, providing a 50/50 chance of thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain.

Thunderstorms should gradually taper off during the evening, then cooler, drier air will filter in overnight. Lows will drop down to the mid 60s in the city and near 60 in the suburbs.

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday and Thursday will offer partly to mostly sunny skies and delightfully cool conditions. Highs will likely be in the mid 70s both days. Overnight lows will range from 50 in the cooler suburbs to the upper 50s downtown. Confidence: High

The air begins to warm somewhat on Friday on winds from the south. Temperatures should again near 80 degrees and humidity levels will increase. Confidence: Medium-High

Over the weekend, temperatures and humidity levels may increase a little more. Highs both days should be in the low-to-mid 80s. There's a slight chance of showers late Sunday as a cold front nears the region. At that point, we may need to watch where the remnants of Ike are heading. Confidence: Low-medium

By Jason Samenow  | September 8, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Sounds like we could get one of those lines of thunderstorms that develops along cold fronts on Tuesday. Woohoo - I have something to look forward to now! ;)

SPC has us under a 30% chance of severe weather Tuesday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | September 8, 2008 6:06 AM | Report abuse

Since the track of the center of the storm was pretty much what was forecast, why were the main rain bands further west than forecast, and so many of the heaviest ones centered over central Fairfax and Prince William Counties? Unlike most of the other local jurisdictions, those areas got NO break Saturday. The rain averaged 1-2" per hour continuously from before 11AM to after 4 PM...then finally started to lighten up and end by around 5 or so. The Accuweather radar confirmed this.....central Fairfax County just kept getting oranges, reds, and dark reds, one behind the other, while other surrounding jurisdictions alternated between reds, yellows, and lighter greens. And, east of the city, in the original heavy-rain forecast area, it was mostly green (light rain) on the scope all afternoon...with a big relatively dry area in lower Delmarva and the lower Bay.

This was a MAJOR difference from the forecasted rain pattern (and I think the CW team has underplayed the extent somewhat), even though the storm itself tracked almost exactly as forecast. NWS doesn't seem to have any explanations for it.

Posted by: Mike from Vienna | September 8, 2008 9:24 AM | Report abuse

Autumnal weather + Alexandria...
Everyone else wanting and waiting for this upcoming autumnal weather, as much as me? looks refreshing!

second, Alexandria last Saturday didn't seem to have any reports of flooding? Anyone from Alexandria verify that no problems happened due to Hanna?

Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | September 8, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

Once again we're apparently getting more dangerous lightning & thunder forecast for dance night [tomorrow] after wiping out any outstanding precip. deficits on Saturday thanks to Hanna.

THIS HAD BETTER STOP...or I'm going to start chanting for another DROUGHT!!! Nam myoho renge kyo. Nam myoho renge kyo. Nam myoho renge kyo...!!!

Currently 82F, 30.20, rising then steady. Scattered patches of Ac castellanus, replaced by scattered Ci fibratus then clear.

Posted by: El Bombo | September 8, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Jason - Acuweather and NWS seem to be forecasting showers Friday thru Sunday, with less chance of precip on Saturday. Is this because they think the front will arrive early or is this another front?
Thx.

Posted by: Rishi | September 8, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

On May 27th you posed this question to your readers, "How many 90+ degree days will occur in June, July, and August at Reagan National Airport this summer (2008)?"

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/how_many_90_degree_days_this_s.html

You also wrote, "We'll rank the guesses that come in from best to worst in early September..."

Will this be coming any time soon?

Mr. Q.

Posted by: Mr. Q. | September 8, 2008 5:16 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Q: We're really busy covering hurricanes, but when the tropics calm down, I will cover this. Thanks for your interest and the reminders.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | September 8, 2008 6:05 PM | Report abuse

Rishi-- The NWS has removed rain chances from the weekend forecast. There is going to be a weak front in our vicinity, but right now at least, doesn't seem it will have a lot of precip associated with it. Stay tuned

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | September 8, 2008 6:15 PM | Report abuse

Sue Palka thinks the storms may start as early as noon tomorrow and most of the action should be over by the time I leave for my dance at 8 PM. [Most charts seem to have the thunderstorms well west of us right now.]

Mike from Vienna: I noticed this discrepancy and posted about it Saturday and Sunday. My early forecast of an inch or less was based on the rain being concentrated in Hanna's eastern quadrants. Actually the rain field was in Hanna's northwest and southwest quadrants, over D.C. and nearby areas as the system moved rapidly norteastward.

Camden: Not much flooding occurred in Alexandria proper but Cameron Run flooded Huntington again. It seems folks in Huntington are concerned and want some Federal aid, but this time the flood was not quite so bad as that of June, 2006.

Posted by: El Bombo | September 8, 2008 11:12 PM | Report abuse

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