Hanna Charging Towards Carolina Coast

The extent of the wind field about Hanna is shown nicely in the QuickSat image valid about 8 o'clock this morning: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png

As shown in the "impacts" post ( http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/09/here_comes_hanna_with_a_wet_wi.html ) it's clear the strongest winds are east of the storm center.

As mentioned yesterday in one of my comments and reinforced in today's CWG "impacts", heaviest rainfall is to the west of the storm track. Just as in winter a small change in the path of a storm can make all the difference in the world in rain versus snow, a small change (error) in the most likely track of Hanna could be quite consequential in the distribution and effects of wind and rain.

Sometimes it's just the nature of the beast that what one gets at any particular location won't be known literally much before looking out the window

I'm confused. If Jamaica and Haiti can tear up a hurricane, why doesn't a trip all the way over NC and VA tear up this tropical storm? Is it a difference in geography (Jamaica has mountains, eastern NC and VA don't)? Trajectory? Or (I know this is it...) do lots of factors have to come together in order for a trip over land to affect a TS?

It really surprises me that we can get over 2 inches of rain from a poorly-organized tropical storm passing us by so quickly to our southeast. We're on the WEAK side of this system, and might see 3 to 6 hours of rain with 25 mph winds, but it might be all over by 4 PM tomorrow if Hanna accelerates as these systems tend to do at this latitude. Maybe there won't be too many thunderstorms on the weak side for us.

It's possible that Ike could pose more of a flooding threat than Hanna, but that depends on Ike's track. If Ike's remnants reach this area the rain could fall on ground already saturated by Hanna, thus posing a greater flood threat.

Laura--you're right, it's the mountains. Jamaica's mountains go up to 7000 feet, and Haiti has mountains up to 8700 feet. Our mountains are far enough west (and not as high), so they're not in play.

Thank goodness for this blog. I have the Weather Channel on my desktop and get alerts on my cell phone. All those messages say "This message contains information for people in the affected areas on what to do." Then never say what to do. That is the entire message. If it weren't for this blog, I would be wondering if I need to board up windows or head for high ground or whatever.

Howard Bernstein is now calling for 3 to 6+ inches of rain, until 8 pm tomorrow.

El Bombo, while I might not be totally qualified to answer your question, I think this piece should be helpful.

What are the chances that air travel will be affected? I'm flying out of BWI tomorrow morning to Boston for a wedding in Newport, RI. Yep, the rain will follow me too.

Models continue to shift westward, some have the track actually just west of DC now. This likely means greater Potomac flooding and stronger winds.

Godspeed Hanna!!

Another reason Hanna will not weaken much before reaching our area is its very fast forward motion. It just won't have much time over land to weaken.

Traveller: Expect major travel delays and cancelations along the East Coast tomorrow

Come and get me, Hanna! My yard needs a thorough drenching. It'll be a good transition from summer to fall.

The Tropical Storm Wind Warning has been expanded to a larger area further to the west, including Montgomery/Loudoun/
Frederick Counties, etc., however it still says that the strongest wind gusts will be east of I-95.

So how will Hanna compare to Isabel? Any thoughts?

I live on the Bay and I know this is going to really be a bear for me. Your standard noreaster results in flooding, winds, no power, etc. I've spent most of the morning 'policing up' the yard and moving stuff out of the path. The westward shift really bummed me out as I was hoping it would keep going eastward out to sea. Oh well.

mdsailor: Winds from Hanna probably won't be quite as strong as Isabel in the metro area, but near the Bay, they may come close.

I lived in SoFL for 14 yrs. Let me know when a real hurricane (i.e., Andrew, Frances, Wilma) gets here. Until then, I'll just be going on as usual. My yard, however, could use a good drenching.

Its the Great Summer Nor'easter of 2008! Sustained ENE winds to 40+...heavy precip...we need this type of setup in January. Regardless, the amount of rain in such a short period of time will make things quite interesting. As for Ike...he's not looking so hot this afternoon, but he's going to be a major force next week somewhere.

Reporters should be more careful about their facts:

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was about 375 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina

No - its southeast of Wilmington (SW would be over land) - how can someone be so sloppy about the basics - scary

If you lived in Baltimore and you had a wedding to attend on Saturday in Petersburg, VA at 3:30 pm would you go?

Jeff - it is SW of Wilmington - look at a map with coordinates...

You beat me to it Dulles ARC, glad you did, you "phrased it better" anyway :) Get baby ARC ready for the tropical action!

If I lived in Baltimore and had a wedding to attend on Saturday in Petersburg at 3:30pm...I'd leave right now and get a hotel in Petersburg :-\

should i be alright traveling on saturday morning (8 am)from camden, south carolina to the prison in bennettsville, south carolina?

Mike - Baby ARC is attacking her stuffed bunny right now while her dad is getting ready to possbily deploy to S. FL for Ike...she couldnt care less about Hanna! I'm definitely on call to head to FL for Ike on Monday possibly...if I go, I'll make sure that I post some good pics and video here. If not, well, I have a vacation planned next Sat for a week in Nags Head...yep in the middle of Sept- the price is right, even if the hurricanes arent...As fast as Hanna is going to be moving and with 4+ inches of rain forecast, its going to rain really, really hard, with some "Chubby" raindrops.

suggestion for "traveller" -- if you can move up your timetable, take the train from Union Station (or BWI Station, or Baltimore Penn Station) to Kingston, R.I. You can go overnight (DP D.C. 10 p.m., AR 6:30 a.m) or you can go up very early Saturday morning. It takes a lot to stop the trains! The happy couple will be glad you made it while other guests got stranded at airports.

We need a war on hurricanes,
Brian Sandler brian334@peoplepc.com

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At my website http://bsandler.com there is a complete description of the machine.
Please contact me at the above address if you have any questions.
Thanks,
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Jeff- Dulles ARC is right and so were we. The storm IS south-southwest of Wilmington. Look at the tracking map embedded at the end of the post

John in Bethesda: thanks for the suggestion but I don't want to waste the ticket. The wedding is not until Sunday night so I have time to get there, won't be pleasant but, plenty of time.

I continue to be impressed with the size of the rain shield from Hanna. This is a very large system and with the s.e. fetch I'm sure the rain will be more widespread than with many such systems.

Having said this

Many of the 12z model runs have diminished the western extent of the heavy rain. This has occured at a time when the NWS is extending the western limit of the Flash Flood Watches. I am now under one in the Central Valley. Were they reacting to 06z data when they extended at 8:52 am??
Their qp projections are easily 200% of three of the 12z models that I have looked at.

Interesting

If you were in charge of Wolf Trap, would you cancel tomorrow afternoon's performance?

Um, yes, Les, I'd think that would be a very, very good idea!

very crowded at the grocery store this afternoon - people are gearing up for this!

Augusta Jim, I hope you do get some rain. What are your thoughts on the western extent of wind? (My personal terror.)

Les: Indeed I would cancel tomorrow afternoon's performance if I were in charge of Wolf Trap.

One note on Hanna v. Isabel: Hanna's expected storm surge is much less than Isabel's. So while the winds along the Bay may reach similar speeds, we're not expecting the same extent of flooding along the coast.

Re:Jeff and SW of Wilmington -- also correct was the National Hurricane Center, who reported the position as such.

I'm supposed to go to Ocean City, MD this weekend, do you think it'll get hit hard?

Oh no Hanna is coming to cause Havok!!! Where is Barrahcuda Girl?? Put up the Signal Maybe She can turn Hanna around.! Sarah Palin is the new Obama, The new most famous person in the world. The new One! that can spread the waters. Uh Oh, Wonder if she is a Muslim too? Or worse, the anti-christ?

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Its all about Palin for the next few weeks. It might be a bad thing that she is more Popular then McCain.

this is God's punishment for electing Bush

What is your experience with severe weather?

Visit http://www.WhatDoestheWorldThink.com

If you need help after a flood, they have alot of info at http://www.floodvictimshelp.com

It's toward with no (s)...

will mrytle beach be affected

I supposed to be in Mrytle Beach on Monday will it be safe ?

**THE REVELATION**
bUSh hurts Iraq = Hurricanes hurts US

1991 HW Bush attacked Iraq.
1992 Hurricane Andrew

2003-present W Bush attacks Iraq
2004 Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005 Katrina, Rita
2006 Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Florence.
2007 Dean, Erin
2008 Fay, Gustav, Hanna?, Ike?, Josephine?, ???

** Katrina code **
kATRIna -> .ATRI.. -> RITA
katRINA -> ...RINA -> IRAN
KAtRIna -> KA.RI.. -> IR AK
KATrinA -> KAT...A -> ATAK
** The warning **
ATAK IR AK IRAN KATRINA RITA ATAK

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I just slept through the eye of the storm as it passed over us in Wake forest, NC. When I looked outside it wasn't that bad. The only damage was a few branches lying around and it was still pretty windy and cloudy, but overall dont freak out about it

this storm aint nothin i jus hope ppl are prepared for ike god bless those thats in that path