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Posted at 7:45 PM ET, 09/30/2008

Severe Storms Moving Through Area

By Ian Livingston

Cool down begins Wednesday

7:45 PM: A cluster of strong storms -- with frequent lightning and capable of producing small hail and winds in excess of 60 mph -- will move west to east across the immediate metro area over the next hour or two.

Variably cloudy conditions continue this evening ahead of a cold front approaching the region. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points into the low 60s set the stage for some showers and strong storms this evening.

Monitor radar and severe warnings issued by the National Weather Service on our Severe Weather Tracking Sation below. See the rest of the forecast below that, and our Weather Wall for the ultimate overview of area conditions.

Severe Weather Tracking Station
Warning Text: DC | MD | VA
Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here to see radar bigger.
LWX Warnings
Warnings: Severe warnings from the National Weather Service. Updates without refresh (most browsers). Click label in legend for detailed warning text.

Tonight: After a chance of evening showers or thunderstorms, conditions will tend to improve. Clouds should stick around most of the night, but organized precipitation should wane prior to midnight. Between midnight and sunrise, a few isolated showers will be possible. Look for lows in the mid 50s for the suburbs to around 60 in the city.

Tomorrow: Cooler air begins arriving in earnest tomorrow on the heels of the cold front scheduled to pass through. Skies will remain mostly cloudy during the day and a passing shower or two may move through. High temperatures should rise to right around 70 degrees across most of the area as winds pick up out of the northwest during the day.

See Matt's full forecast through the weekend. Keep reading for earlier alerts.

PREVIOUS ALERTS

7:45 PM: A Tornado Warning has been issued for central Fairfax County and southern City of Fairfax until 8 p.m. If you are in the warned area you should go to a basement or interior room and stay away from windows.

By Ian Livingston  | September 30, 2008; 7:45 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Interesting that the best chance of rain will be north of DC. Usually, it's to the south with these high dew points.

I am looking forward to the cool, dry weather later this week.

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | September 30, 2008 4:08 PM | Report abuse

This is purely for fun, but the GFS forecast model "predicts" temperatures out to a total of 16 days. The most recent run tells us to expect overnight lows as cool as the low 40s at some point within the next 10 days.

N.B. Specific temperature forecasts past day 5 (or at the absolute outside range, 7 days) are a very tricky proposition...

Still food for though, though. :)

Posted by: Josh, Capital Weather Gang | September 30, 2008 4:33 PM | Report abuse

Josh, if the GFS holds true, it will be time to put the tank top and shorts away.

Which is tricker to predict several days out: temps or precip?

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | September 30, 2008 4:52 PM | Report abuse

I meant to type trickier. I need spell check for my typos!

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | September 30, 2008 4:54 PM | Report abuse

David, very good question. Perhaps other Capital Weather Gang writers could offer a better answer, but I would think that chances for precipitation 5+ days out are probably a bit easier to produce than specific temperature range forecasts.

That being said, this would probably vary based on the time of year as well as the forecast location.

Posted by: Josh, Capital Weather Gang | September 30, 2008 6:00 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Josh.

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | September 30, 2008 6:23 PM | Report abuse

David, if you look at a satellite this afternoon that covers the great lakes you can see a big spin up there -- an upper low. The best dynamics above the ground are from about this area up to the north. Dew points are fairly uniform in the low to mid 60s from NC to Balt, enough juice, but nothing extreme. Looks like the DC area to PA border region ended up with the best mixture of surface and upper level conditions.

A newer batch south of the main line looks to hit northern portions of the area.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | September 30, 2008 6:25 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the info., Ian. I just checked it out. Yes, the line near and north of DC looks serious.

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | September 30, 2008 6:54 PM | Report abuse

Is it just me, or are the centers of those storms showing up purple on the radar?

Posted by: ~sg | September 30, 2008 6:59 PM | Report abuse

Thunder right now in Sterling.

Posted by: Sterling | September 30, 2008 7:11 PM | Report abuse

LOTS of lightning, raining lightly at 7:18.

Posted by: Sterling | September 30, 2008 7:19 PM | Report abuse

Cloud to cloud lightening and some light thunder just beginning in Merrifield - no rain yet.

Posted by: ~sg | September 30, 2008 7:30 PM | Report abuse

Heavy rain started about 10 mins. ago, letting up a little now.

Posted by: Sterling | September 30, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

Tornado warning for central Fairfax county.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | September 30, 2008 7:39 PM | Report abuse

It's begun to POUR here. I can hear it, if not see it. If I'm living in McLean (eastern Fairfax County), should I be concerned about the tornado warning moving this way?

Posted by: mcleaNed | September 30, 2008 7:53 PM | Report abuse

No rain but heavy thunder/lightning in Springfield...

Posted by: Mark | September 30, 2008 7:56 PM | Report abuse

@mcleaNed: It's possible that the circulation could extend there - McLean is included in the warned area.

Posted by: ~sg | September 30, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

Never mind...there's the rain.

Posted by: Mark | September 30, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

Lots of lightening on the horizon in Alexandria. Getting closer....

Posted by: alexandria | September 30, 2008 7:58 PM | Report abuse

Posting this for future reference:

Temp--67.6
Pressure: 1008

Rain has been everywhere from moderate to intense within the last 15 minutes, with lightning bright enough to let me get a good view of the trees and clouds outside. Looks like we're just on the leading edge of it at the moment.

Posted by: mcleaNed | September 30, 2008 7:58 PM | Report abuse

Yikes-close lightning here on the Bethesda/DC border.

Posted by: Jed in Bethesda | September 30, 2008 8:04 PM | Report abuse

TW expired....whew! I'm out of chocolate.

Posted by: ~sg | September 30, 2008 8:05 PM | Report abuse

Just blew up here in Silver Spring. Time to break out the chocolate.

Posted by: ep | September 30, 2008 8:10 PM | Report abuse

From my backyard in N. Stafford County, I could see lightning flashing in a star-filled sky from the storm passing through Fairfax County.

Pretty amazing stuff tonight.

Posted by: David A. in Stafford | September 30, 2008 8:14 PM | Report abuse

Thunder and rain slowly picking up in Silver Spring.

~sg, we have four bars, all dark chocolate, in our house. One can be for you.

The warnings are not on either the weather.gov main maps or the Sterling NWS radar map. Sigh.

Posted by: Murre | September 30, 2008 8:16 PM | Report abuse

@Murre: Thanks, have a whole bar for me, please!

Posted by: ~sg | September 30, 2008 8:19 PM | Report abuse

Warnings are now on the Sterling radar page. Some URL must have gotten its chocolate.

Posted by: Murre | September 30, 2008 8:20 PM | Report abuse

~sg, thanks. Chocolate hasn't been necessary for this storm. The thunder is now slowly diminishing.

Posted by: Murre | September 30, 2008 8:22 PM | Report abuse

Temperature has now dropped 3.2 degrees in the last 20 minutes. Looks like the storm's going to speed up our Wednesday cooling.

Posted by: mcleaNed | September 30, 2008 8:26 PM | Report abuse

.8 inches in 30 minutes here in SE LoCo. That puts us over 3 inches this week. That nasty part of the line passed right overhead and clearly started to spin up as it got toward the FX-LoCo line near Centreville...doesnt sound like there was an actual sighting...so far. Hundreds of lightning strikes. I was thinking run of the mill T-Storm until I saw the email on the BB. Yaneverknow...

Posted by: Dulles ARC | September 30, 2008 8:38 PM | Report abuse

heavy rain and vivid lighting in Rockville. Great late season storm.

Posted by: BG | September 30, 2008 9:11 PM | Report abuse

sorry vivid lightning

Posted by: BG | September 30, 2008 9:16 PM | Report abuse

Doppler radar is showing some potential rotation over North Beach. Anyone heard anything about that?

Posted by: PenguinSix | September 30, 2008 9:32 PM | Report abuse

0.8" from tonight's storm. 10.2" for the month.

Posted by: Rob-Potomac | September 30, 2008 9:45 PM | Report abuse

Grrrrr. Storms can't come through 20 minutes earlier? I don't like having my soccer games cancelled. At least I had a good vantage point on top of a hill. Pretty intense lightning in the Ellicott City area.

Posted by: Brian, Capital Weather Gang | September 30, 2008 10:24 PM | Report abuse

A lot of fog in Bethesda at the moment-I can't see the parking lot from the 9th floor of my building.

Posted by: Jed in Bethesda | October 1, 2008 1:26 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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