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Posted at 5:25 PM ET, 10/24/2008

PM Update: Now for Something Different ... Rain!

By Ian Livingston

Showery Saturday, some afternoon storms possible

Today has been a bit of a change of pace compared to all the sunny days seen recently, and our three-week streak with no measurable rain is about to end. As a storm approaches from the west, clouds have covered the region all day, helping to keep highs mostly in the mid 50s. Moisture levels are on the rise now thanks to a wind from the south and east. This will help keep temperatures fairly steady through the evening.

Tonight: We will stay cloudy but dry through late evening before a 40% chance of rain arrives by 9 p.m. or so. After midnight, the rain threat increases to likely. Temperatures will barely drop overnight, so look for lows in the low 50s just about everywhere. Winds will pick up from the east, blowing up to 15 mph at times overnight.

Tomorrow: Saturday will feature showers through much of the day -- and winds from the southeast gusting over 20 mph at times -- before precipitation begins to end toward late afternoon or evening. Look for highs to rise into the low (maybe mid) 60s. The relatively warm and moist air may help trigger a few strong or severe thunderstorms during the afternoon. Primary risks from storms will be strong winds and some hail, though a tornado or two can't be ruled out (especially east of I-95).

Rainfall should generally range from .50" to 1" with a few higher totals. Places east or south of D.C. may stay closer to the low end of the range.

Planning to be out after dinner Saturday night? Rain should be over by then, or quickly moving away from west to east.

See Camden's full forecast through the beginning of next week, including for Sunday's Marine Corps Marathon, and our Weather Wall for the ultimate overview of current conditions in D.C., Maryland and Virginia.

By Ian Livingston  | October 24, 2008; 5:25 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

What are the chances of us missing the bulk of the rain. Looking at the radar now, looks like part of the rain is moving south of us while the other part will remain west of us.. Thoughts?

Posted by: ZmanVA | October 24, 2008 3:28 PM | Report abuse

Slight risk for severe weather tomorrow for areas along a North-South line through Manassas and points east:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Here is the threat to the area, from the bottom half of the second paragraph:

AS SUCH...DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIc REGION...WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. SURFACE BASED TSTM POTENTIAL/SEVERE RISK BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF SECONDARY/DEEPENING NY-VICINITY SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | October 24, 2008 3:50 PM | Report abuse

*correction

Sorry about the "c" in "ATLANTIc"...that happened when I was deleting the 4-5 characters' worth of extra space between every few words to make the paragraph look and read less clunky...just retyped the "c"

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | October 24, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Ian, thanks for the great details for tomorrow. That's what I like about the CWG. You guys give the timelines, precip. amounts, and other information the other weather outlets neglect.

Posted by: david-a-in-stafford | October 24, 2008 6:29 PM | Report abuse

Unless current trends change, this will be another failed rain potential. Most of the area has received less than 50% normal rainfall during the past 30 days.

The dry slot is not filling.

We are in dire need of substantial rain, but has been the case for a long long time, we may come up short.

Oh, by the way, in this new age of nonsense from the W.P., I am still Augusta Jim!!!!!

Posted by: jpc1231 | October 24, 2008 8:25 PM | Report abuse

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