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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 11/13/2008

A Fun Feature to Watch for Flakes

By Jason Samenow
Computer model (GFS) simulation showing winds and vorticity (spin) at 500 mb (roughly 18,000 feet up) for 1 p.m. next Tuesday. Courtesy NOAA.

Snow lovers craving the first flaky action of the season should keep their eyes on a disturbance forecast by the long-range models. Dubbed a "Manitoba Mauler" due to its province of origin, this disturbance is likely to take a steep southeastward dive and could pivot through the region next Tuesday. With very cold air in place (note the dip in the jet stream, drawn into the image to the right with the thick black line), this energetic wave in the atmosphere could spin up a few snow showers or flurries. The "x" in the image is a vorticity (a measure of spin) maximum which, as we discussed a couple weeks ago, is a good thing if you want precipitation.

Will there will be any accumulation?

Keep reading for the answer. See Josh's post for the full forecast through Tuesday, including radar and the latest on today's rain, and SkinsCast for Sunday night's game against Dallas.

It's way too soon to make that call (the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball remains in hibernation), but odds are pretty low and there may not even be a flake. Frankly, it's probably premature to even be talking about this disturbance -- whose track and timing are uncertain and could change dramatically. But speculating about whether this flurry will materialize is roughly equivalent to speculating whether the Redskins will make the playoffs this year (in terms of certainty) and just as critical for the snow-obsessed -- no small number.

By Jason Samenow  | November 13, 2008; 11:00 AM ET
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Next: PM Update: Rain Subsides ... For Now


Looks like while Tuesday will be a cold rush with the chance of a few flakes, a couple days later may spur something a bit more significant for the frozen precip lovers.

Posted by: GISman | November 13, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

Could this be the season's premier appearance of the Snowlover's Crystal ball???

Posted by: paul-Sterling | November 13, 2008 4:05 PM | Report abuse

My boots and gloves are ready!

Posted by: --sg | November 13, 2008 4:26 PM | Report abuse

I would love to get snow around here in November! but I think the reality is that we won't even see a flake. just IMO. Channel 9 has 51 and a rain drop on Thursday so unless it drops 30 degress I think we should look at the next possible storm.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | November 13, 2008 6:16 PM | Report abuse

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