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Posted at 8:30 AM ET, 11/17/2008

Forecast: After Wild Weekend, Wintry Reality

By Dan Stillman

Get familiar with highs in the 40s -- and some flakes, too?

The excitement of the weekend -- a Saturday of highs in the 70s, heavy showers, rumbles of thunder and rainbows; and a windy and suddenly cold Sunday -- has passed. What are we left with? The reality that a pre-winter chill has settled in. At least it has for the upcoming week, which will feature highs mostly in the 40s and maybe some snowflakes to boot.

TODAY (MONDAY)

Partly sunny a.m. Partly to mostly cloudy p.m. Rain or snow showers? Mid-to-upper 40s. The first thing you might notice today will be the kinder, gentler wind -- only 5-10 mph, from the west in the morning and northwest in the afternoon. The big question of the day: Will there or won't there?... be any snowflakes during the afternoon or evening. I'd put the odds of seeing a passing rain or snow shower at about 30-40%.

Tonight, partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower or flurry. Lows in the low 30s downtown, upper 20s in the burbs.

Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend. And get pumped for Capital Weather Gang's winter outlook -- coming Wednesday.

TOMORROW (TUESDAY)

Partly sunny. Flurries? Low 40s. Whoa -- two days in a row with the word snow in the forecast. Cool! Jason explained last week why we could see some flurries in the air Tuesday -- about a 30% chance I'd say. Oh, and I should probably mention it's gonna be really cold. Highs only in the low 40s, and a potent wind of 15-25 mph from the northwest, with higher gusts.

Tuesday night, partly to mostly clear and continued windy. Lows in the upper 20s to near 30 in the District, low-to-mid 20s in the burbs.

A LOOK AHEAD

We're looking at another breezy and chilly day Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. We should start out with some sun, but skies may become increasingly cloudy as the day goes on. Wednesday night, partly to mostly cloudy and less windy. Lows in the low 30s downtown, mid-to-upper 20s in the burbs. Confidence: Medium-High

The cold and the wind relent on Thursday as highs head for the mid 40s to near 50 under partly sunny skies. Temperatures drop to Thursday night lows in the fast-becoming-familiar upper 20s to low 30s (suburbs to city), before rising back into the 40s for Friday highs. Confidence: Medium-High

More highs in the 40s is the way it looks now for the weekend. There's a chance we'll see a storm approaching by late in the weekend. Precipitation would probably be in the form of rain. But I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of some snow, at least not yet. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Dan Stillman  | November 17, 2008; 8:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Freedman: Dirty Skies -- the ABCs of "ABCs"

Comments

Don't be shy folks -- someone out there must be excited at the prospect of flakes this week?

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | November 17, 2008 10:05 AM | Report abuse

Me! Me! I'm excited about snow! Ah, let the snow watch of 2008-2009 begin.

Posted by: WeatherWick | November 17, 2008 10:10 AM | Report abuse

I'm excited - honestly !

But getting onto this system to comment is not easy. I had to create a whole new washpost id, new email address, etc to get this UserID to work. If others are having the same problem ???

Posted by: MDScot | November 17, 2008 10:35 AM | Report abuse

MDScot -- I know, change is never easy. But the good news is once you're in, you're in. At least you've got yourself registered now, rather than when you're desperately wanting to make a comment during the season's first accumulating snow, right?!

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | November 17, 2008 10:41 AM | Report abuse

RainMan Greg:

The comments have certainly dropped off on your site and I am worried that many of the regulars have vanished fromn the site as well. Where is Blue Ridge Mike? ~sg~ is not on as much and El Bombo and his thirty daily posts are no more!

As for the prospect of snow ---- it will rain!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | November 17, 2008 11:12 AM | Report abuse

I'm trying not to get too excited until it happens! I don't think those around me can take another winter of my snow obsession, so keeping it under wraps :)

I was also wondering where everyone was... I enjoy reading the regulars' comments and observations...

Posted by: Snowlover2 | November 17, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse

See, I am not excited about the possibility of snow (besides the fact I don't like it) for a good reason. When we get all excited with a prediction of a major storm, closing of storms, running to the grocery store for the big three, piling up the firewood, we get a nice dusting -- picturesque but hardly worth shutting everything down. So, if we act all unexcited and make no plans because nothing big is expected, I figure we should have the blizzard of '08 any time.

Posted by: epjd | November 17, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

If I see just one snowflake, I'll be happy :)

Posted by: weathergrrl | November 17, 2008 1:25 PM | Report abuse

Where is my snow??????

Posted by: snowlover | November 17, 2008 1:37 PM | Report abuse

What's the earliest we have seen flurries in this area? Measurable snow? And what is considered measurable snow?

Seems a little early for even the flurries this year. Hoping that might be indicative of a snowy winter for us. But that's just hoping...

Posted by: UMDTerpsGirl | November 17, 2008 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Ah the winter is begining slowly but surely. I look forward to once again sharing the winter with all the fellow commenters, hopefully it will be a better one than last year. Lets pray for snow.

Posted by: NWDCJesse | November 17, 2008 2:07 PM | Report abuse

We did have some flakes out in the LoCo bootheel in late Oct. but I think tonite may be more likely to see that first dusting. The GFS sure is starting its waffle...could be quite interesting this weekend around here...oh, and there was a dusting on Oct. 10, 1979...but for all intents and purposes most of us consider the Veterans Day storm of 1987 to be the earliest true snowstorm around here...I had very little to cry about last winter as we were right in the bulls-eye with about 22 inches last year at my place. I started a commute home from DC one afternoon with about an inch on the grassy areas and got out to LoCo - 35 miles West - with about 8 inches on the ground. I couldnt believe the difference.

Posted by: DullesARC | November 17, 2008 2:08 PM | Report abuse

Re: early-season snow ... CWG's Steve Tracton did a post on this not too long ago -- here it is.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | November 17, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Ah, yes, it MUST be that time of year again -- AccuWeather's Henry Margusity has started his daily tea-leaf readings of the GFS once more and is boldly predicting a "big one" this weekend. Silly Henry...

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | November 17, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

snow, snow, snow!

i have considered moving simply because i want more snow. we are long due.

it's also been nice getting out the sweaters.

Posted by: dinergirl | November 17, 2008 3:22 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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