Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity
The new Washington
Post Weather website
Jump to CWG's
Latest Full Forecast
Outside now? Radar, temps
and more: Weather Wall
Follow us on Twitter (@capitalweather) and become a fan on Facebook
Posted at 12:55 PM ET, 11/15/2008

Forecast: Warm and Wet -- then Wintry

By Jason Samenow

Slight risk of strong afternoon storms

We face a potentially volatile Saturday as warm and cold air do combat. The metro area stands in the battleground as warm air surges north at the same time cold air advances eastward. The cold air will win out -- taking over the region tomorrow through Tuesday and beyond -- but not before a mild, and potentially wild day today, with showers and possibly severe thunderstorms.

TODAY (SATURDAY)

Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here to see radar bigger. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Showers and thunderstorms. Mild. Upper 60s. Low pressure will ride up the Appalachians, with rain surging out ahead of it over the metro region, especially early this morning. The rain showers could be briefly heavy. Between mid-morning and early afternoon, we may get a break in the action and with strong flow from the south, temperatures should climb to near 70.

By mid-afternoon, the area of low pressure will begin dragging a strong cold front through the region, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe, especially along and east of I-95. The biggest threat with any storms will be damaging winds, but an isolated tornado is not out of the question, especially to the southeast.

Precipitaion should be on its way out by around 7 p.m. Behind the front, it will gradually clear and turn noticeably colder overnight. Temperatures will drop down to between 37-44 (suburbs-city). A stiff wind from the west will blow at about 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph.

Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through Tuesday. See SkinsCast for Sunday night's showdown vs. Dallas.

TOMORROW (SUNDAY)

Breezy and much cooler. Low 50s. Lookout for a 15-degree drop in temperatures compared to today. Cold air will stream in on winds from the west and northwest at 10-20 mph (with higher gusts). For much of the day, it will feel like the 40s, with a mix of sun and clouds.

For the first half of the overnight hours, it should be mostly clear. Late at night and towards morning, some high clouds may increase. Lows should range from 30-35 (suburbs-city).

A LOOK AHEAD

Another cold front passes the region Monday leaving behind variably cloudy skies, the chance of some snow flurries or sprinkles (20% chance), and even chillier temperatures. Highs should only reach the mid 40s with a cold wind from the northwest at 15-20 mph. Variably cloudy and cold overnight, with a slight chance of snow flurries. Lows should drop down to 28-33 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

Tuesday will likely be partly sunny but still quite cold, with highs only in the low 40s. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | November 15, 2008; 12:55 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: PM Update: Gray Skies Lead to More Rain, Storms
Next: Alert: Tornado Watch Through Early Evening

Comments

I have been following you guys for about 4 yrs, and was just curious as to why you chose the word "Gang" to be part of the "Capital Weather Gang" title once you switched over to the washington post site? Seriously......you couldn't come up with another word???? Just curious. As always keep up the good weather discussions!

Posted by: snowlover | November 15, 2008 7:26 AM | Report abuse

Hi snowlover -- glad you've been with us for so long. "Capital Weather Gang" is one of several titles that came up as we discussed things with the Washington Post at the beginning, and it just kind of rolled off of everyone's tongues (there used to be a political show, I believe, called the Capitol Gang).

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | November 15, 2008 8:46 AM | Report abuse

If we do get strong or severe storms this afternoon, it will have to be all dynamics-related, with the jet, wind shear, and cold-frontal uplift. Looks like there are just too many clouds to prevent strong surface heating, even with the warm air advection.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | November 15, 2008 9:52 AM | Report abuse

Former Sara in Oakton..looks like I have to sign in to post. It seems unaturally balmy and warm. I have my windows open. I assume we are too late in the season for tornadic activity?

Posted by: SPS1 | November 15, 2008 10:05 AM | Report abuse

MMC-You're correct, the big player in today's event is definatlely dynamic forcing, but we don't need clear skies today to destabalize the atmosphere. This mornings sounding began with a surface dewpoint of 57 degrees and the atmosphere was nearly nuetral. In just a few hours that dewpoint has climed up to 64 degrees. That has a much larger effect on stability than increasing the temperature by that amount. The instability will be there, it just depends on if things can organize before arriving here. We'll have to wait and see.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | November 15, 2008 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Mesoscale Discussion 2389 covers just about everyone in the DC area excluding the far western areas. They're saying a tornado watch is likely by 18Z (1:00PM EST) Here is the text:

LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRIMARY ASCENT NOW IDENTIFIED BY SHALLOW LINE OF CONVECTION FROM AUGUSTA COUNTY VA...SWWD INTO CALDWELL COUNTY NC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN BOTH DEPTH AND INTENSITY AS UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUOYANCY AND CONSIDERABLY GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...LARGE SCALE KINEMATIC FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORCED SQUALL LINE. WITH TIME SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO SERN PA AND NRN NJ AND THIS AREA WILL BE ADDRESSED ACCORDINGLY. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2389.html

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | November 15, 2008 11:48 AM | Report abuse

Actually seeing some sun here to help destabilize things a bit. Tornado watch expected somewhere in the area soon.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | November 15, 2008 11:52 AM | Report abuse

Tornado Watch has been issued till 7 p.m.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | November 15, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

I got the warning on my desktop, but not through the weather radio or on my cell phone alert (hey, I want to know if something is going to happen). How unusual would a tornado in November be>

Posted by: epjd | November 15, 2008 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Former "RainMan" Greg Here: One minute we have sun and the next swirling rain out here in the Leesburg area. Roads are covered with leaves - very dangerous for those riding bikes and getting their jog in. Looking forward to some winter weather over the next few weeks. I expect many late nights on this site this year as we hype ....eerrr... hope for snow!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | November 15, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2012 The Washington Post Company