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Posted at 4:45 PM ET, 11/17/2008

PM Update: Cold Gets Colder... First Snowflakes?

By Ian Livingston

Evening rain, snow showers; Mid-winter preview Tuesday

*** Coming Wednesday: CWG's Winter Outlook | Weather Wall ***

After one of the coldest mornings of the season, sunshine gave way to increasing clouds associated with an upper-level disturbance moving through. Temperatures, having reached highs in the mid-to-upper 40s, will drop back through the 40s and into the 30s this evening. Rain showers moving into parts of the area this afternoon could mix with snow this evening into the overnight (no significant accumulation expected in the metro area).

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued east of the Chesapeake Bay, where precipitation is expected to be a little more consistent overnight.

Tonight: Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will continue through much of the night, though the most concentrated activity should fall prior to midnight. Some lucky folks may even see a brief dusting on car tops or elevated surfaces if snow falls hard enough. Lows should drop to around 30 in the suburbs and to just above freezing in the city.

Tomorrow: Hello winter! Tuesday looks to be an average day -- for mid-January at least. Some remnant snowflakes are possible early in the morning. Otherwise look for mostly cloudy skies along with highs only in the low 40s. If the cold does not provide enough wintertime fun, then maybe winds blowing around 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph will.

Holdouts in the area that have not seen a freeze yet should expect to see their first Tuesday night.

See Dan's chilly forecast through the weekend.

By Ian Livingston  | November 17, 2008; 4:45 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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So, snow tomorrow? there wont be any!?!? :( :( :( :(

Posted by: strangldangel | November 17, 2008 4:06 PM | Report abuse

What are the chances we will see at least a few flaks of snow a flying in the DC metro area this evening? Thx!

Posted by: snowlover | November 17, 2008 4:26 PM | Report abuse

Saw Greg the Rainman reference me in a post earlier......IM HERE DUDE and saw some snow this afternoon! Just light, non-sticking type..for now! LOL

Posted by: MikefromtheBlueRIdge | November 17, 2008 5:07 PM | Report abuse

Brief rain shower (few flakes) in Lake Ridge dropped temperature from about 43 degrees to 39 in about 10 min.

Posted by: ZmanVA | November 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Report abuse

Interesting to see that the Eastern Shore will see accumulating snow before the D.C. metro area and (close in) suburbs do! I'm assuming they'll be benefitting from moisture from the ocean and bay.

Nice to hear from you again, Mike! Now all we're missing is El Bombo. I miss the Bombocasts.

Posted by: Sterlingva | November 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Report abuse

Snow Snow Snow! Just one little flake will be just fine!

Posted by: weathergrrl | November 17, 2008 5:31 PM | Report abuse

little sleet and snow in sperryville va in the last hour

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | November 17, 2008 5:35 PM | Report abuse

snowlover, I suspect there was snow mixed in with the rain as I drove from Reston to Herndon just now - I saw a number of those broad "textured" splats on my windshield. Of course, it doesn't quite count if you can't see the flakes as white stuff...

Posted by: fsd50 | November 17, 2008 6:08 PM | Report abuse

I'm hoping for a few flakes, if for no other reason then to try and make this harsh cold worthwhile.

Speaking of the Eastern Shore, I know the mets down in Hampton Roads are talking about the possibility of some bay affect snow this evening and in the morning. Our own little micro-climate.

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | November 17, 2008 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Snowlover, there should be some snow in the air overnight in parts of the metro area. It is snowing relatively close by already this evening, and the bright areas on high resolution local radar would tend to indicate the precip is already mixing in the region. I think areas to the east of us get in on the beginning of a coastal low pretty far out -- still enough to give them a little extra oomph. Jason's post from late October is worth a re-read in situations like this.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | November 17, 2008 6:24 PM | Report abuse

SNOW SIGHTED in McLean, VA in the last 15-20 minutes. Thin flakes, but certainly a promising sight so early in the season. Needless to say, the precip is melting on contact.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | November 17, 2008 6:27 PM | Report abuse

So how come no SLCB? I thought it appeared even with just a few flakes? Or does it have to be an actual accumulating snow event? I can't remember. It was so scarce the past two winters...

Posted by: Snowlover2 | November 17, 2008 7:01 PM | Report abuse

I haven't seen any snow flakes yet, although it is certainly cold enough (35.9 at around 7:30, as told by my trusty home weather station). Looks like another band of precipitation has reached the western boundary of Loudoun, hopefully it'll reach Sterling.

I don't think I could bring myself to go to bed without seeing snow; I think I'll set the limit at 3 AM. Hopefully it won't take that long :-)

Posted by: Sterlingva | November 17, 2008 7:41 PM | Report abuse

I'm so confused. Some sites are reporting no snow for tomorrow but capital weather is saying a 20% chance? is that just for flurries? any accumulation?

Posted by: strangldangel | November 17, 2008 8:12 PM | Report abuse

Snowlover2 -- You'll have to wait a little longer for the Snow Lovers Crystal Ball. It only comes out to play when there's the potential for accumulating snow.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | November 17, 2008 8:16 PM | Report abuse

There will be no accumulation (yes 100% sure).

I doubt we will see anything to be honest, except for maybe a 5 minute period of incredibly light flurries.

Posted by: LAWNMAN209 | November 17, 2008 8:22 PM | Report abuse

strangldangel: we are not expecting accumulation in the immediate metro area.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | November 17, 2008 8:22 PM | Report abuse

Special weather statement from NWS:

... Quick burst of snow moving across northern Virginia...

Snow showers will move across northern Virginia... including the western suburbs of Washington DC... through 915 PM. Snow showers will likely last no more than a half hour in any one location.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | November 17, 2008 8:25 PM | Report abuse

The band has not reached Herndon yet..

Posted by: Snowman_In_Herndon | November 17, 2008 8:45 PM | Report abuse

The radar begs to differ about any "quick bursts of snow."

Posted by: LAWNMAN209 | November 17, 2008 8:59 PM | Report abuse

Occasional snow showers throughout the day, melting on contact, some enough to make the pavement wet.

8-10 inches expected 30 miles to my west by late tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: AugustaJim | November 17, 2008 9:05 PM | Report abuse

9:00p observations
Blue Ridge east of Front Royal (elevation 1900 ft)

Temp: 28.6F
Snow Accumulation: 3/4ths inch
Current Conditions: Cloudy but not snowing at the moment

Posted by: spgass1 | November 17, 2008 9:09 PM | Report abuse

Nothing here in NWDC. Temperature holding steady at around 38.5. Hoping for snow but I doubt I will see any. Ok I have a suggestion for the website:

Any chance capital weather could host a server type thing where people could upload photos and tag them with their location, that way we can see what conditions look like in different areas.

Posted by: NWDCJesse | November 17, 2008 9:21 PM | Report abuse

Still no flurries in Sterling. Sigh. Looks like just virga for tonight.

Posted by: Sterlingva | November 17, 2008 9:21 PM | Report abuse

Bring on the snow!!!

Posted by: dcwarren | November 17, 2008 10:49 PM | Report abuse

Snow chances for Tuesday increase from 20 to 30 percent. Looks like a good sign to me.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | November 17, 2008 10:54 PM | Report abuse

Wow! Judging from the NWS forecast below, it looks like we might see some accumulation after all...

"[Tonight]:Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. North wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible."

It may not close the Federal government, but at least we have a shot at a whitened landscape.

Forecast source:

Posted by: KBurchfiel | November 17, 2008 10:58 PM | Report abuse

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