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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 12/ 7/2008

Forecast: A Cold Wind Blows In

By Brian Jackson

* Skins-Ravens Forecast: Bone Chilling Cold *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: A bitter cold wind. 34-37 | Tonight: Clear & less windy. Upper teens to low 20s | Tomorrow: Continued dry and cool. 39-42 | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

By Brian Jackson

So, did everyone enjoy the first semi-accumulations yesterday? Sorry -- snow fans, but that was it at least through Wednesday (after that it may get a little interesting). The name of the game today is cold and windy under brightening skies. This deep chill will stay with us for a short time, but warmer weather comes Tuesday and Wednesday bringing the chance for rain along with it.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): In the wake of yesterdays "snows," winter's other half comes to town. A cold and windy day is in store for our area despite mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs will range into the mid 30s but with winds from the northwest ramping up to near 25 mph and gusty, it will feel like the 20s instead. Bring a coat! Confidence: High

Tonight: The winds will abate a little overnight but it will still feel mighty chilly out there. Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop quickly after sunset. Those inside the beltway will see lows in the low 20s and outer-suburbia could easily drop into the upper teens. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

newseum-sunset.jpg
A view of the sun setting from the Newseum Friday evening. By Capital Weather Gang photographer Ian Livingston.

Tomorrow (Monday): Skies will remain mostly sunny to begin the work week and the lack of strong gusts will allow for a much more pleasant experience. Still, temperatures remain on the cold side with highs topping out near 40 degrees. Winds from the northwest at 5-10 mph continue, but begin to veer from out of the south during the afternoon.

Tomorrow Night: The initial stages of our next weather maker emerge Monday night. High clouds will begin to stream in and thicken creating mostly cloudy conditions overnight. These clouds, combined with winds from the south mean that temperatures won't drop all that much overnight. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

What once appeared to be a potentially wintry scenario on Tuesday continues to sway to the warmer and wetter side. Rain, not snow showers will develop and move in -- probably during the second half of the day. Despite the clouds and rain, we'll begin a warming trend with highs reaching the mid 40s. Confidence: Medium

Rain chances continue into Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to rise and highs may reach the mid 50s. Colder air may start to surge into the region Wednesday night, and we'll need to keep an eye on the development of a coastal storm that could cause a return to wintry conditions on Thursday. Confidence: Low

By Brian Jackson  | December 7, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Wind Advisory Until 8 p.m.

Comments

28 degrees, p.c. and windy in the Valley at 7 am.

.25 inch of snow fell yesterday afternoon. A few icy spots on pavement but no big deal.

The idea of a "coastal" Wed. night and Thur. is looking less likely according to the latest GFS and GGEM. The DGEX likes the idea and the ECMWF is "sitting on the fence".

Posted by: AugustaJim | December 7, 2008 7:27 AM | Report abuse

We got our "dusting" ... but as for cold, it was way colder yesterday a.m. 16 at 7 a.m. saturday and it was 25 at 5:30 here this a.m.
any chance wed/thurs storm could be an ice event?

Posted by: weathergrrl | December 7, 2008 8:27 AM | Report abuse

We got our dusting, but it was colder yesterday a.m., 16, compare to 25 at 5:30 a.m. today. Any chance of Wed/Thurs storm turning into an ice event?

Posted by: weathergrrl | December 7, 2008 8:36 AM | Report abuse

Whoops, not enough coffee yet. Sorry for the double post!

Posted by: weathergrrl | December 7, 2008 8:37 AM | Report abuse

It was nice to see our first measurable snow. I was heading north on 95 & it came down pretty good for about 30 minutes passing through Stafford to Woodbridge.

I really hope this is the winter we see a big snowstorm. Its been at least a couple winters since our area has seen a significant snow.

Posted by: ConwayVA | December 7, 2008 9:22 AM | Report abuse

so it says a 40% chance of snow today in the At a Glance, but it isn't mentioned in the CW forecast. Which one is correct?

Posted by: strangldangel | December 7, 2008 10:03 AM | Report abuse

also, how has the outlook for a weds/thurs possible snow/ice event changed?

Posted by: strangldangel | December 7, 2008 10:16 AM | Report abuse

On Connecticut Ave in the district early this morning, it looked like they had salted last night. Was that really necessary? I would have thought the roads in the district, especially well-traveled ones like Connecticut, wouldn't have frozen?

Posted by: LaurainNWDC | December 7, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

Has the Potomac frozen over yet this year?

Posted by: PeterBethesda | December 7, 2008 10:43 AM | Report abuse

AugustaJim, the EURO from last night blasts this area with snow for on the late week 'coastal'. It's almost as good as it could get around here...

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 7, 2008 11:21 AM | Report abuse

@strangldangl

The NWS has a 40% chance of flurries. And if you see our latest update with the wind advisory, we mention that possibility through the early afternoon.

The Wed night/Thursday "event" is very uncertain. It looks potentially less snowy than it did at this time yesterday but still could be a dynamic event with falling temperatures and variety of precipitation types.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 7, 2008 11:22 AM | Report abuse

Here's an image of the ECMWF/EURO run from last night. It's a good 6-10+ event along i-95 in this area. Plenty still to be decided... and it would all need to come together right, but to have the EURO 'on board' in this time frame is usually a positive in the grand scheme.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 7, 2008 11:32 AM | Report abuse

I'm still not sold on the Euro, the 850 temps are barely below freezing, and with the amount of rain ahead of it, the cold air might have a hard time overcoming the mid-level warming. Right now, it seems more likely a rain finishing with snow showers event.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

What heartens me is that the GFS has been showing the same setup for the last two or three days: drenching rain from a storm tracking along the Appalachians, then a secondary low dumping snow along the I-95 corridor. That kind of consistency is notable in a model as sporadic as the GFS.

Still predicting no school on Thursday... :-)

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 7, 2008 2:15 PM | Report abuse

I know it's a lot to ask around here but I wish it would either be rain or snow or nothing. Mixed precip events make me and my little Honda Civic nervous.

Posted by: LaurainNWDC | December 7, 2008 3:00 PM | Report abuse

GFS might be bringing back the coastal storm after it disappeared from the model runs earlier.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_090l.gif

Posted by: Sterlingva | December 7, 2008 5:55 PM | Report abuse

The chances of a mid-week snowfall of such a size is minimal! In my opinion, we mainly get weekend storms of significant snow (within the last decade at least) :-)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | December 7, 2008 7:50 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: cjespn | December 7, 2008 7:56 PM | Report abuse

Haha, CJ, note the disclaimer on that graphic. Also, in an event like a rain/snow changeover, using the 10:1 rule goes out the window, more like 3-5:1. I'm also curious as to where all these bold predictions of snowfall are being generated? I've yet to see any evidence in the models of anything that would support much accumulation. Also keep in mind the GFS's nickname in some circles, Good For Snow(GFS). It's notoriously aggressive with snowfall. I'm not saying we won't see anything, I'm certainly hoping for it, but, somebody's gotta play the critic.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 7, 2008 9:01 PM | Report abuse

It's usually wise to be critical of snow threats around here. But, there are quite a few models showing at least some late week now. New GFS hits us with another good smacking of snow, FWIW.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 7, 2008 11:07 PM | Report abuse

0Z GFS is the best-looking yet. This same storm has now appeared in the last half dozen runs.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 8, 2008 12:12 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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