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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 12/19/2008

Forecast: Gloomy Friday; Saturday/Sunday Slop?

By Camden Walker

Weekend storm still taking shape. How wintry?

* Ex-Bush Official Joins AccuWeather | Redskins-Eagles Forecast *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Batches of rain. Mid 40s. | Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. Upper 30s | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. Near 40. | Tomorrow Night & Sunday: Wintry mix changing to cold rain. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

WeatherCamThis is quite a gloomy streak of gray weather, and it will continue. With clouds being a constant, the only thing really to forecast over the next few days is temperature and precipitation. Today's the easy part -- 40s with some rain. Saturday night and Sunday? Not so straightforward.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here to see radar bigger. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): Another dank, dismal day is on hand for our Friday. Rain showers move in during the morning and stick around into the afternoon. With the center of the storm passing to our north, showers will likely be steadier and heavier the further north you are, and lighter and more intermittent the further south. Cloudy skies will limit highs to the mid 40s. Rain should diminish by late afternoon or early evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clouds may break at times overnight; we'll call it partly to mostly cloudy. Lows won't dip too far because of said cloud cover... into the upper 30s. Breezes will be from a cool, northerly direction, but only about 5 to 10 mph. Confidence: High

How wintry does the weather look for the weekend? Read on...

Tomorrow (Saturday): Not a pristine day, by any means, but at least we'll have a break from our recent dampness. Breezes from the northeast will keep us socked-in with mostly cloudy skies. Highs only near 40. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: It could prove to be an interesting night. But wintry conditions won't be cataclysmic by any means. Overnight lows will be borderline for freezing, in the low 30s, as precipitation develops. That means the potential for a wintry mix. Minor accumulations are possible by morning, but at this point I wouldn't say probable. As usual, it's likely to be colder and thus more wintry the further you go north and west of the District. Confidence: Low-Medium

Sunday: Precipitation continues into the morning, but temperatures at all levels should be on their way up. How quickly and how high is the question. It looks like most of us should be above freezing and seeing mostly plain rain by sunrise or shortly thereafter, but there's still some uncertainty. The storm could be out of here as early as midday, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and winds picking up behind the storm during the afternoon. Maybe even some partial clearing of late-day skies. Confidence: Low-Medium

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with blustery winds. By dawn, low temperatures will dip into the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Monday may break our streak of gloomy skies with partly to mostly sunny conditions. But C-O-L-D. We're talking highs that may struggle to break the low 30s. And quite windy, too. Confidence: Medium-high

Tuesday should stay precipitation-free, but continued cold. Highs in the 30s. Confidence: Medium

By Camden Walker  | December 19, 2008; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Yes, C-O-L-D on Monday and Tuesday, but I have the utmost confidence that it will warm up quite nicely for the next batch of precip due Christmas Eve into Christmas Day and kill ANY chances of frozen-type stuff falling from the sky at that time. (Queue Dan Fogelberg's Same Old Lang Syne...)

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | December 19, 2008 8:31 AM | Report abuse

When you look at these model runs, do you look at the 850mb or the 500mb? I know it's probably more complicated than one or the other, but which gives the better view of surface temps?

Posted by: gfp76 | December 19, 2008 9:48 AM | Report abuse

No, Virginia, there will be no snow or even slop this weekend. In DC, rain means rain, chance of snow means rain, 1-3 of snow means rain, and massive snow storm means a mix of rain and snow, with any white stuff gone by 10am the next day. Wisconsin here I come!

Posted by: dcwarren | December 19, 2008 10:09 AM | Report abuse

Camden, does CapWx have Camden's Crazies merchandise for sale?

Posted by: dcwarren | December 19, 2008 10:11 AM | Report abuse

@gfp76

850 temp maps are decent as a tool for forecasting sfc temps. Here are some generalities: If you have full sun, you can add 15 C to the 850 temp to get the sfc temp. If it's precipitating and/or dark, the 850 temp is often pretty close proxy to the sfc temp. Extrapolate in between those scenarios.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 19, 2008 10:49 AM | Report abuse

Before you guys complain too much about the overcast days, consider that, by statistic, December is usually the cloudiest month in the D.C. area....we get a maximum frequency of storms this month that pass by both to the south and the north. Next month, in January, the focus is more on storms that pass by to our south (and more likely to have snow for us).....from the Gulf Coast and off of Cape Hatteras.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | December 19, 2008 11:27 AM | Report abuse

So, up here in the Financial District in lower Manhattan. It started flurrying on my way to the subway. 10 minutes underground, I came up an was walking in steady snow. Now, after about two hours, we're experiencing blizzard-like conditions. There's about an inch on the ground, and they're calling for about an inch an hour. They were also calling for temps in the mid-30's, but temps actually dropped from about 35 to 30, and appear to continue the downward trend. I am facing the Hudson, and can't even see Jersey City, which is just over a mile as the crow flies. Just snapped a few photos, and will take more as the day goes on...and my schedule permits.

Posted by: KaloramaPark | December 19, 2008 12:07 PM | Report abuse

very gloomy out today..

Posted by: madisondc | December 19, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

"December is usually the cloudiest month in the D.C. area . . . "

That assertion is not supported by the following from NCDC, NOAA.
Average number of cloudy days:
Dec 15.9
Jan 16.4
Mean sky coverage:
Dec 5.2
Jan 5.4
Feb 5.2
Mar 5.2
Percent of possible sunshine:
Dec 46
Jan 46

Posted by: CapitalClmate | December 19, 2008 12:18 PM | Report abuse

Sorry guys, but Jan./Feb. are expected to be above average temperature-wise, so looks to me like we are heading into another winter without much white stuff around here. Which is actually quite fine with me.

Posted by: steske | December 19, 2008 12:38 PM | Report abuse

oh well... besides, there's too much going on this time of year without adding the inconvenience of snow and ice to it! (as much as I love snow).

Posted by: mchristinaw | December 19, 2008 1:43 PM | Report abuse

The long-range models are really tanking with the temps. Still not reflected on the official forecasts. Wondering also if anyone else is suspicious that this time (finally) we may get more snow than predicted and not less. I could see this being a "surprise snow," there's alot of volatility and the models are not consistent, except now trending colder.

And also, I am trying this site again, Lord help me...I promise not to get riled up by (or even read) any the politics that has infiltrated the site since back in the early days.

I do love talking about weather, however!

regards to you all!

Curt McCormick
Darnestown MD

Posted by: curtmccormick | December 19, 2008 2:32 PM | Report abuse

We're driving to middle Tennessee Tuesday via I 66-81-40-75-24. What's the forecast look like for our drive?

Posted by: jhwpro | December 19, 2008 5:10 PM | Report abuse

@jhwpro

Dry weather for your drive Tuesday...maybe some clouds moving in by the time you reach Tennessee...but rain should hold off until night time.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | December 19, 2008 6:19 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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